77 wins
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77 wins
84
Volquez steps up and gives the team a legit number 2. Harang and Arroyo provide more of the same. Cueto struggles from time to time but still ok at number 4 and provides reason to believe he'll be better in 2009. Number 5 is a revolving door, but overall the starting pitching is above average. The offense gets a boost from Votto. Patterson is better than expected. The Middle IF suffers a drop-off from 2007, but Keppinger plays enough to provide a boost. Dunn hits 50 bombs and is more mobile in the field. Griffey declines a bit and looks even worse on defense. Jay Bruce is blocked and spends much of the year in AAA. EdE settles in as an average 3B. The catching situation is horrible. The Bullpen prevents this team from getting to the play-offs. Stanton proves last year wasn't an anomoly. Weathers declines sharply. Burton and Bray move from prospects to suspects. Coffey rebounds a bit. Roenicke and Viola arrive too late. Cordero is good, but too often leads disappear prior to him getting in the game. They finish above .500 and feel like a team on the rise.
84 Wins.
75 wins. Hope I am wrong. :D
This rotation is improved vastly over what we've been seeing, IMO. The young guys keep them in it until September, but may not have the experience or stamina to get over the hump. Still, I think they win more than lose.
Put me down for 83 wins.
82 wins.
The Reds struggle out of the gate with the platoon of Hopper and Patterson not working in center, and with the likes of Stanton getting banged around in the bullpen. The Reds come to their senses, promote Jay Bruce and Josh Roenicke amongst others, Volquez and Cueto become more consistent during the second half of the year, and the Reds use a blazing second half of the season to finish over .500 and give a good glimpse of what's to come in 2009.
85 wins. Sets them up nicely for a move in 2009.
The Reds are cooked if Harang, Arroyo, Dunn, or Griffey miss games. But, in fairness, there aren't a lot of mid-market teams that have the depth to replace top-talent that goes on the shelf.
The other point you raise about Phillips and Edwin is also worth repeating -- if those two don't find a way to hit LHP better, its going to be a long season.
83 wins.
First time I've projected a better than .500 record since 2000.
78 The Reds will have basically three rookies in the rotation for most of the season and that will keep the win total under the 500 mark. But they along with Bruce and Votto will give the Reds a boost into a very good 2009 season.
84 wins
77 wins
84 wins.
85 wins. First time I've been optimistic about the team since 2000.