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MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
Hard times ahead for the NL Central. All five squads find themselves in the bottom half of the rankings. Pittsburgh (16), St. Louis (18), Cincinnati (22), Chicago (26) and Milwaukee (28).
https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-midsea...stems-rankings
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22. Cincinnati Reds
2020 preseason rank: 24
2019 midseason rank: unranked
2019 preseason rank: 9
Top 100 Prospects: Nick Lodolo, LHP (No. 51), Hunter Greene, RHP (No. 54), Austin Hendrick, OF (No. 88)
The Reds have picked in the top half of the first round for five straight years (four times in the top 10), starting with current big leaguer Nick Senzel. Three of them are in the Top 100, but there’s not that much behind them.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
Reds should have 3 first round picks (Regular pick, Comp A, and compensation for Bauer) enter the system in the next draft. That should help some.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
How do system rankings change from the preseason....when there hasn't been a minor league season? Just based on the draft? Because someone had a deadline and no other ideas?
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
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Originally Posted by
Boston Red
How do system rankings change from the preseason....when there hasn't been a minor league season? Just based on the draft? Because someone had a deadline and no other ideas?
Promotions, draft picks, and trades
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
Both Antone and Garcia are looking like they should been top 100 prospects. And for that matter, probably Tyler Stephenson. If you look at mlbpipeline's top catchers he could easily belong on that list due to both stats and pedigree.
Couple that with most of our big prospects being either recent draftees who haven't had a chance to show much if anything at all (Lodolo, Hendrick) or are coming off of a long injury (Greene, Hinds) and I think our farm system is probably better than the rankings suggest.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
Reds don’t have much farm depth, perhaps, but they do have immediate help if they want it.
Garcia, T Stephenson, India, Lodolo, Greene are already there or should be soon.
These are some of the top prospects in their chain, who all happen to be pretty close. So the timing is good.
Now they have to fill in below that.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
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Originally Posted by
Kc61
Reds don’t have much farm depth, perhaps, but they do have immediate help if they want it.
Garcia, T Stephenson, India, Lodolo, Greene are already there or should be soon.
These are some of the top prospects in their chain, who all happen to be pretty close. So the timing is good.
Now they have to fill in below that.
Curious: what makes you think India and Lodolo are ready?
Not being snarky, I don’t see why they are considered ready?
India especially has been a pretty big disappointment.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
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Originally Posted by
RedTeamGo!
Curious: what makes you think India and Lodolo are ready?
Not being snarky, I don’t see why they are considered ready?
India especially has been a pretty big disappointment.
Didn’t say they were ready. If so, we might have seen them this season on taxi squad or whatever.
I said they are pretty close, which is likely considering their age, pedigree, experience level. India was a major prospect in a big time college program. He hit .791 at AA in second half last year, he’s progressing.
I know the scuttlebutt about India, but I wouldn’t jump to too many conclusions from very early minor league statistics. Some guys need to get comfortable.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
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Originally Posted by
Kc61
Reds don’t have much farm depth, perhaps, but they do have immediate help if they want it.
Garcia, T Stephenson, India, Lodolo, Greene are already there or should be soon.
These are some of the top prospects in their chain, who all happen to be pretty close. So the timing is good.
Now they have to fill in below that.
You talking about the same Hunter Greene who has thrown 72.2 professional innings, none above low-A and none since 2018?
Having a big Q-rating isn't the same thing as being ready, or even being close to ready.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
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Originally Posted by
BillDoran
You talking about the same Hunter Greene who has thrown 72.2 professional innings, none above low-A and none since 2018?
Having a big Q-rating isn't the same thing as being ready, or even being close to ready.
You don’t think Greene will be a Red sometime next season? I do. At his talent level I think they’ll want him in the bigs relatively soon.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
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Originally Posted by
Kc61
You don’t think Greene will be a Red sometime next season? I do. At his talent level I think they’ll want him in the bigs relatively soon.
We have no idea what he is. He was up-and-down in his 68.1 IP with Dayton. There have been glowing reports about his stuff, but that's just baseless speculation and hardly evidence of readiness.
Nothing wrong with getting excited by prospects, but there's just very little evidence suggesting Greene is nearly ready-to-go (especially if they see him as a starter, which I imagine they do).
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
Greene has missed a ton of time. He didn't even play much as a senior in High School. He's still coming off an injury. I think the Covid shut-down might have prevented a major setback like we saw with Bailey. I'm still guessing 2023 at the earliest unless they want to make him a reliever. He has virtually no innings base under him. I can't see throwing him into a big league rotation without a couple full seasons of starting in the minor leagues if for no other reason than to build up innings. I'd have been fine with giving him a look in the bullpen this shortened season where he really wouldn't have built any innings anyway, but he needs to be the next ace, so let him start and bring him along. I'd shut him down next year after 100 innings or so. Then push him to 130 to maybe 140 in 2022. After that, if he's effective, he's probably ready.
Right now, he's still just a baby and he's hardly played over the last 4 years.
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It’s the same old debate. If you let top pitching talent incubate in the minors for too long, it may never be as dynamic. You miss the market. Once Greene is fully healthy he will and should be on the fast track to the major leagues.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
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Originally Posted by
Kc61
It’s the same old debate. If you let top talent incubate in the minors for too long, it may never be as dynamic.
Doc Gooden is a prime example. He had his greatest season at age 20. He was good thereafter but never had quite the same unhittable stuff.
For the best arms, I don’t think there’s that much to be gained by a long MILB stay. And perhaps much to be lost.
Robert Stephenson was properly in the minors with control problems. But he lost his best fastball down there. There are lots of other examples. It’s a judgment call. I expect to see Hunter Greene, at the lastest, in 2022.
Gooden didn't sit out 3 of the 4 seasons ahead of his debut. Greene will be the next Finnegan if they bring him up too soon. Stick him in a big league rotation after a limited inning base, ride him hard for 30+ starts, never hear much about him again. The difference is that Greene has had even fewer innings, is younger than Finnegan at the time and has already had a major arm injury. Unless he's going to become the successor to Iglesias, leave him in the minors for a couple years.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
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Originally Posted by
mth123
Gooden didn't sit out 3 of the 4 seasons ahead of his debut. Greene will be the next Finnegan if they bring him up too soon. Stick him in a big league rotation after a limited inning base, ride him hard for 30+ starts, never hear much about him again. The difference is that Greene has had even fewer innings, is younger than Finnegan at the time and has already had a major arm injury. Unless he's going to become the successor to Iglesias, leave him in the minors for a couple years.
Greene is at a different talent level than Finnegan.
They must be careful that he’s healthy and they shouldn’t overwork him, true.
But they can’t put him on the Stephenson/Reed/Romano gestation plan - which wasn’t slow enough for some on here.
If you leave Hunter Greene in the minors long enough you will never see his best stuff in the major leagues.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
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Originally Posted by
Kc61
Greene is at a different talent level than Finnegan.
They must be careful that he’s healthy and they shouldn’t overwork him, true.
But they can’t put him on the Stephenson/Reed/Romano gestation plan - which wasn’t slow enough for some on here.
If you leave Hunter Greene in the minors long enough you will never see his best stuff in the major leagues.
He just turned 21. He's pitched zero innings in 2020 as a 20 year old. He pitched zero innings in 2019 as a 19 year old. He pitched a whopping 68 innings in 2018 as an 18 year old. He pitched four innings at the end of 2017 as a 17 year old and that was after shutting himself down as a Senior in High School. He's not ready to hold up to big league hitters working him. He'll be used up before Memorial Day. He might have the stuff to get some guys out. I think he should be in the Reds pen right now. But if he's going to be a starter, he needs a couple seasons building his innings count against lesser hitters who will be less likely to wear him out.
Dwight Gooden had roughly 350 innings pitched in the minors during his age 17 and 18 seasons before debuting at age 19 and making 31 starts. Gooden wasn't coming off of TJ either.
Stephenson and Reed were ready from an innings perspective when they debuted. They had other issues. Reed had the Yips and Stephenson couldn't get the ball over the plate. They ended up where those limitations took them. Greene is a completely different situation. He simply needs to pitch before trying to hold up to the grind of being a big league starting pitcher. We'll see where his talent is when he gets there, but he won't be ready to start in the big leagues next year and probably not the next either.
Greene isn't Gooden, Stephenson or Reed. He's in his own situation and it's not like any of those guys were. I agree he's better than Finnegan, but Finnegan was in a similar situation innings wise except Greene's is much more extreme.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
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Originally Posted by
mth123
He just turned 21. He's pitched zero innings in 2020 as a 20 year old. He pitched zero innings in 2019 as a 19 year old. He pitched a whopping 68 innings in 2018 as an 18 year old. He pitched four innings at the end of 2017 as a 17 year old and that was after shutting himself down as a Senior in High School. He's not ready to hold up to big league hitters working him. He'll be used up before Memorial Day. He might have the stuff to get some guys out. I think he should be in the Reds pen right now. But if he's going to be a starter, he needs a couple seasons building his innings count against lesser hitters who will be less likely to wear him out.
Dwight Gooden had roughly 350 innings pitched in the minors during his age 17 and 18 seasons before debuting at age 19 and making 31 starts. Gooden wasn't coming off of TJ either.
Stephenson and Reed were ready from an innings perspective when they debuted. They had other issues. Reed had the Yips and Stephenson couldn't get the ball over the plate. They ended up where those limitations took them. Greene is a completely different situation. He simply needs to pitch before trying to hold up to the grind of being a big league starting pitcher. We'll see where his talent is when he gets there, but he won't be ready to start in the big leagues next year and probably not the next either.
Greene isn't Gooden, Stephenson or Reed. He's in his own situation and it's not like any of those guys were. I agree he's better than Finnegan, but Finnegan was in a similar situation innings wise except Greene's is much more extreme.
Bottom line, Greene should spend next year in the minors with a view towards the major leagues on opening day 2022. He’s been throwing this year and one more full minor league season should be enough.
If Reds want to be cautious when he joins the big club give him some relief work for awhile. But they can’t assume that Greene will retain his great stuff until his later twenties. It doesn’t always happen.
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I don't think there's a human alive who can accurately rank farm systems this year. Assuming they get back to playing next year, I expect a bunch of kids to come out of nowhere and become the next big thing (whether they're from the Reds organization, can't say).
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
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Originally Posted by
M2
I don't think there's a human alive who can accurately rank farm systems this year. Assuming they get back to playing next year, I expect a bunch of kids to come out of nowhere and become the next big thing (whether they're from the Reds organization, can't say).
Not only that, I wouldn't be surprised to see guys that were legitimate prospects at the end of 2019 fall off the radar.
It'll be interesting to look back in 5-10 years and see how 2020 impacted player development.
Next year's draft is going to be nuts.
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Coddle thy pitchers, challenge thy hitters....
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
Keith Law just came out with a ranking of all MLB farm systems in the Athletic. I would link it, but it’s behind a paywall. He puts the Reds at 17th, pretty much right in the middle. This is his write up:
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The Reds’ system is holding serve, as the team didn’t dip into their prospect pool for trades or significant promotions in 2020 despite their run to the postseason, while continuing to add some high-ceiling talent in the last two drafts. The return of Hunter Greene from 2019 Tommy John surgery will be big for the Reds, as he’s far and away their best pitching prospect and best chance for someone who could pitch in the top two spots of a major-league rotation; below him, their depth is far greater on the position-player side, especially on the dirt and behind the plate.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
Law posted his Reds top 20 today:
- Greene
- India
- Lodolo
- Garcia
- Stepehenson
- Hendrick
The top three are in his top 100 and Garcia is on his "just missed" list.
Law's much higher on India and Greene than most. He's got Greene at No. 28 overall. Said he was throwing an easy upper-90s last year and has a good four-pitch mix. He thinks India will hit (as a doubles-hitter) and is bullish on his defense at 3B, 2B and SS, in a pinch.
Less optimistic on Stephenson, who he thinks is going to have problems hitting due to his size and big swing.
Not a huge Law guy, but I do appreciate his take on things. He's got his own opinion and doesn't just get in-line on dudes.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
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Originally Posted by
BillDoran
Law posted his
Reds top 20 today:
- Greene
- India
- Lodolo
- Garcia
- Stepehenson
- Hendrick
The top three are in his top 100 and Garcia is on his "just missed" list.
Law's much higher on India and Greene than most. He's got Greene at No. 28 overall. Said he was throwing an easy upper-90s last year and has a good four-pitch mix. He thinks India will hit (as a doubles-hitter) and is bullish on his defense at 3B, 2B and SS, in a pinch.
Less optimistic on Stephenson, who he thinks is going to have problems hitting due to his size and big swing.
Not a huge Law guy, but I do appreciate his take on things. He's got his own opinion and doesn't just get in-line on dudes.
I agree with Greene at number 1. I think Garcia should be number 2. Everybody else is tied for 6th.
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Lodolo is clear number 2 for me. Until he does something that warrants otherwise. Guy has no weaknesses in his game.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
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Originally Posted by
BillDoran
Law posted his
Reds top 20 today:
- Greene
- India
- Lodolo
- Garcia
- Stepehenson
- Hendrick
The top three are in his top 100 and Garcia is on his "just missed" list.
Law's much higher on India and Greene than most. He's got Greene at No. 28 overall. Said he was throwing an easy upper-90s last year and has a good four-pitch mix. He thinks India will hit (as a doubles-hitter) and is bullish on his defense at 3B, 2B and SS, in a pinch.
Less optimistic on Stephenson, who he thinks is going to have problems hitting due to his size and big swing.
Not a huge Law guy, but I do appreciate his take on things. He's got his own opinion and doesn't just get in-line on dudes.
Stephenson didn’t look like he ha a big swing to me last year. I was actually pretty impressed by how quick and compact it looked.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
Law thinks a guy who hit only 18 doubles in 512 PAs in 2019 is going to be a doubles hitter?
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People who have access to his 2020 info seem to think he's bouncing back. I hope they are right. We need a impact bat in the upper minors.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
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Originally Posted by
JaxRed
People who have access to his 2020 info seem to think he's bouncing back. I hope they are right. We need a impact bat in the upper minors.
Part of the issue is development, sure.
Another part of the Reds' issue is that they've focused almost entirely on young bats.
Stephenson took a long time. He's absolutely had some prospect fatigue. So did Winker, fwiw. (And Votto.)
Hinds, Hendrick, and company have a long, long way to go. They'll have to mash to get there. Because the Reds have proven so incredibly slow to challenge hitters, they'll have to mash consistently. Prospective hitters earning helium by moving up multiple levels in the same season? That's what the Rays, Dodgers, and Astros do.
That's not what the Reds do. To their detriment, IMO.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
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Originally Posted by
Bourgeois Zee
Part of the issue is development, sure.
Another part of the Reds' issue is that they've focused almost entirely on young bats.
Stephenson took a long time. He's absolutely had some prospect fatigue. So did Winker, fwiw. (And Votto.)
Hinds, Hendrick, and company have a long, long way to go. They'll have to mash to get there. Because the Reds have proven so incredibly slow to challenge hitters, they'll have to mash consistently. Prospective hitters earning helium by moving up multiple levels in the same season? That's what the Rays, Dodgers, and Astros do.
That's not what the Reds do. To their detriment, IMO.
I think the new minor league set up will speed up the process actually. Now instead of the reds having the excuse of having 5 stops for HS players they only have 3, maybe 4. Hendricks would have started at Low A this year with the old setup, now he will start at high A.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
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Originally Posted by
JaxRed
People who have access to his 2020 info seem to think he's bouncing back. I hope they are right. We need a impact bat in the upper minors.
You can't bounce back to what you never were. The Reds actually have a prospect who was a doubles machine in 2019. Jose Garcia lashed 37 doubles in 452 PAs. That's better than twice India's rate. Even if India pans out, he's probably not going to hit a lot of doubles. For comparison's sake, Nick Castellanos hits a lot of doubles (58 of them in 2019). He was stroking 30+ each season in the minors. Pretty much every guy who hits lots of doubles on the regular was a doubles hitter before he ever reached the minors. It's a type ), and India hasn't been that type. Law's talking about India like he's Anthony Rendon, and he's not.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
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Originally Posted by
M2
You can't bounce back to what you never were. The Reds actually have a prospect who was a doubles machine in 2019. Jose Garcia lashed 37 doubles in 452 PAs. That's better than twice India's rate. Even if India pans out, he's probably not going to hit a lot of doubles. For comparison's sake, Nick Castellanos hits a lot of doubles (58 of them in 2019). He was stroking 30+ each season in the minors. Pretty much every guy who hits lots of doubles on the regular was a doubles hitter before he ever reached the minors. It's a type ), and India hasn't been that type. Law's talking about India like he's Anthony Rendon, and he's not.
You're making too much of the statement. Law's just trying to say India will hit for some ISO without being HR-driven.
And Garcia lashing 37 2B in 452 PA turned out a .156 ISO.
Wee-willy India only hit 15 2B in 367 A+ PA but managed a .155 ISO (5 3B and 8 HR).
Not going to get into competition or age, because the general point is India can hit for power without being Adam Dunn.
Whether India ever amounts to anything in the bigs sure seems like an unsettled question. I do appreciate that some folks with info on the alternate site seem to be sanguine over his prospects (though I question Shawn Pender's sunny disposition!).
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
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Originally Posted by
BillDoran
You're making too much of the statement. Law's just trying to say India will hit for some ISO without being HR-driven.
And Garcia lashing 37 2B in 452 PA turned out a .156 ISO.
Wee-willy India only hit 15 2B in 367 A+ PA but managed a .155 ISO (5 3B and 8 HR).
Not going to get into competition or age, because the general point is India can hit for power without being Adam Dunn.
Whether India ever amounts to anything in the bigs sure seems like an unsettled question. I do appreciate that some folks with info on the alternate site seem to be sanguine over his prospects (though I question Shawn Pender's sunny disposition!).
If I had to guess what India ends up as in the bigs, it's a doubles hitter along the lines of 260/340/430. Around 15-20 HRs give or take and 5 SB with competent defense.
Basically Ryan McMahon. Positional versatility included.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
Baseball America has a paywall article that lists 6 organizations who's ranking could jump this year. Reds are one of the 6.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
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Originally Posted by
BillDoran
You're making too much of the statement. Law's just trying to say India will hit for some ISO without being HR-driven.
And Garcia lashing 37 2B in 452 PA turned out a .156 ISO.
Wee-willy India only hit 15 2B in 367 A+ PA but managed a .155 ISO (5 3B and 8 HR).
Not going to get into competition or age, because the general point is India can hit for power without being Adam Dunn.
Whether India ever amounts to anything in the bigs sure seems like an unsettled question. I do appreciate that some folks with info on the alternate site seem to be sanguine over his prospects (though I question Shawn Pender's sunny disposition!).
That's the thing, India doesn't have a lot non-HR power. Law's drawn a picture of a player who doesn't resemble India. Law seems to take contrarian stances on players in systems he doesn't much care about, or maybe he just doesn't update his notes for those systems. Either way, hitting doubles is a skill India has yet to display. I'll be extremely pleased if he's picked it up because a doubles stroke is something I put high value on in prospects. Joey Votto hit 46 in AA in 2007. Barry Larkin hit 31 in 103 MiLB games in 1986. Pete Rose hit 31 (with 17 triples!) in A ball in 1962. Doubles are worth some adoration.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
Quote:
Originally Posted by
M2
That's the thing, India doesn't have a lot non-HR power. Law's drawn a picture of a player who doesn't resemble India. Law seems to take contrarian stances on players in systems he doesn't much care about, or maybe he just doesn't update his notes for those systems. Either way, hitting doubles is a skill India has yet to display. I'll be extremely pleased if he's picked it up because a doubles stroke is something I put high value on in prospects. Joey Votto hit 46 in AA in 2007. Barry Larkin hit 31 in 103 MiLB games in 1986. Pete Rose hit 31 (with 17 triples!) in A ball in 1962. Doubles are worth some adoration.
I get your doubts about India and share some of them myself. A utility guy across two positions wherein the Reds are loaded was certainly his projection, pre-pandemic. That said, while we've seen some of the picture, we all have to remember to pump the brakes on our analysis of prospects because we just haven't been privy to the last year of their development. India's had a grand total of 696 ABs as a professional, with most of those taking place while he'd hurt his wrist. We didn't see him last year at all. Reports out of Prasco praised him for hitting the ball hard and for improved bat speed. That specific praise would seem to auger well for his development. Most praise for other guys was nebulous, if you'll notice. Hendrick was a sponge, Siani was putting together good ABs, Hinds' approach improved. Nothing concrete. Only India was praised for objective, measurable offensive skills (ie, bat speed and power).
They're certainly attempting to shine him up. We'll see shortly whether he's worth the pick he was chosen with.
I think India will be in AAA when the season begins, perhaps as a three-position Ben Zobrist type. Were I developing the Red prospects, I'd push him as far as I could defensively-- India's career line-- .254/ .369/ .410/ .779-- looks much better the farther you move to the left on the defensive spectrum. Apparently, he made real progress in that area of his game as well.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
Quote:
Originally Posted by
M2
That's the thing, India doesn't have a lot non-HR power. Law's drawn a picture of a player who doesn't resemble India. Law seems to take contrarian stances on players in systems he doesn't much care about, or maybe he just doesn't update his notes for those systems. Either way, hitting doubles is a skill India has yet to display. I'll be extremely pleased if he's picked it up because a doubles stroke is something I put high value on in prospects. Joey Votto hit 46 in AA in 2007. Barry Larkin hit 31 in 103 MiLB games in 1986. Pete Rose hit 31 (with 17 triples!) in A ball in 1962. Doubles are worth some adoration.
I suppose it comes down to whether you believe ISO accurately captures power, because across 696 minor league PA, India has a .156 ISO.
That ain't Joey Gallo, but it's a guy that has displayed some power.
Personally, I don't care how the ISO materializes. I like all XBH. While we haven't seen India in a while, he didn't produce much ISO in his most recent stop (145 PA) and there are reasons to be bearish, I don't understand why you would try to dance around one of the simpler stats we have. It's right there. He's hit for some power. He didn't bang a bunch of HR.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
Quote:
Originally Posted by
BillDoran
I suppose it comes down to whether you believe ISO accurately captures power, because across 696 minor league PA, India has a .156 ISO..
I don't think it does, especially when it's connected to a shoddy BA. IMO, it's the telltale sign of an ineffective hitter who sometimes runs into a pitch. Not a mix that advances well - better pitchers will drop that BA even further and offer up fewer meatballs. That's my general problem with India. So far he doesn't profile as a capable overall hitter, just as an unremarkable three true outcomes dude.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
Reds system ranked #12 by bleacher report after the draft.
https://syndication.bleacherreport.c...draft.amp.html
There top ten
1. RHP Hunter Greene
2. LHP Nick Lodolo
3. SS Jose Barrero
4. OF Austin Hendrick
5. SS Matt McLain
6. RHP Tony Santillan
7. OF Jay Allen
8. OF Michael Siani
9. 3B Rece Hinds
10. 2B Tyler Callihan
I am surprised Ashcraft wasn't on here.
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Re: MLB.COM Farm System Rankings
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Originally Posted by
Thisyear
I am surprised Ashcraft wasn't on here.
He's got value, but the board is over-their-skis on him.
Also, it's Bleacher Report.
Not sure what folks continue to see in Siani. Not sure how much more evidence is needed, but we've witnessed three seasons of underwhelming offense; light-ish ISO, low average, 30% K-rate.