I've been waiting for this thread. That's...sad, right?
80 wins
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I've been waiting for this thread. That's...sad, right?
80 wins
I'll say 76.
82 wins
88 wins
84 wins
15.74% of the Reds seasons have had better than 90 wins or better, between 80 and 89 wins occurred 23.6% times.
Regrettably they have less than 70 wins 29% of their seasons, with the current offense they'll end up in the largest percentage bucket not mentioned, the 70-79 win column.
I'll say 79 wins
89 wins.
83 wins.
Let it be known that I believe this is the first time that I've predicted the Reds to finish above .500 in one of GLs threads.
Given that this is a younger team, I'm expecting more volatility this year than in previous years. Younger players have more potential to take off and outperform, but they also have more potential to disappoint and underperform. With all that, it really wouldn't shock me to see this team win as many as 90 games, and it also wouldn't shock me to see this team only put up 75 wins. This is a much wider range than I normally see in previous years; you can typically narrow the range down to within a half dozen games in most other years.
Offense and an inability to get on base will still likely be an issue, but should hopefully be less of an issue this year than last season (that's what removing a Willy T sized black hole can do for you). The young pitching staff, specifically the rotation itself, is where most of the volatility exists (I'm looking at you both, Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey).
I'll go with 84.
87 wins.
I think there are enough upgrades in the offense (some addition by subtraction), Harang will win more than 6, and the fact that I think the NL Central is fairly week to get the Reds 9 more victories than last year.
77 wins.
97 wins as the unproven rotation takes the NL by storm.
Hope springs eternal, the last week of March.
I have drunk the cool aid and it's 85 wins for this team.
79 wins. This team is marginally better defensively, marginally better offensively, but probably about the same pitching-wise (especially if Chapman stays in the minors for a substantial part of the year).
So, on balance, any improvements this team may have gained fall within the margin of luck/error record-wise.
78 wins