..... It is so funny to go back and read the thread about the extension and then read people talk about it now. All of a sudden half the board hated that contract even though it was pretty universally liked at the time.
As far as the Reds needing to adopt the Pirates model, the Reds have done some deals similar to the McCutchen deal that have really worked out. The Reds are paying Johnny Cueto 10 million this year.
I think most people thought they were stepping up and going to have money for Cueto, Latos, a bullpen...a bench. I think we trusted Walt knew not to spend all of the money on Bailey. Obviously we were wrong. If Walt had stated that they had maxed out their credit card to sign Bailey and wouldn't have the money to sign Cueto/Latos/Leake and wouldn't have the money to add talent to the bullpen if needed you would have seen a different reaction.
04-30-2015, 12:31 PM
Larkin88
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by jojo
You clearly havent read the thread explaining the infallible free agency predicting toy.
I think most people thought they were stepping up and going to have money for Cueto, Latos, a bullpen...a bench. I think we trusted Walt knew not to spend all of the money on Bailey. Obviously we were wrong. If Walt had stated that they had maxed out their credit card to sign Bailey and wouldn't have the money to sign Cueto/Latos/Leake and wouldn't have the money to add talent to the bullpen if needed you would have seen a different reaction.
Anybody who thought Cueto, Latos, and Leake were all going to get paid after Homer's contract was announced was kidding themselves. And Homer's contract didn't max out anything.
Flipping one of Bailey/Latos and resigning the other was the right move, letting Leake walk if he expects $13 million plus a season would be the right move, and not signing Johnny Cueto to a $200 million jumbo contract would also be the right move.
04-30-2015, 12:57 PM
Chuckie
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by kbrake
I think it is absolute nonsense the any team would make a 100 million dollar decision off of two starts. The Reds did what they did because if Homer went out and had the 2014 everyone expected him to have it would have cost them another 25 to 30 million. They took a gamble and obviously because of health it has backfired but based on what we knew at the time Redszone loved that extension. It is so funny to go back and read the thread about the extension and then read people talk about it now. All of a sudden half the board hated that contract even though it was pretty universally liked at the time.
As far as the Reds needing to adopt the Pirates model, the Reds have done some deals similar to the McCutchen deal that have really worked out. The Reds are paying Johnny Cueto 10 million this year.
You can think it's "absolute nonsense" ... that's fine. As I said, it's just my opinion, but I would bet big that Homer doesn't get that contract without the two no-nos. We'll never know for sure, so safe to say we can agree to disagree on this one. I'm not going to change my mind and you aren't going to change yours. All good.
Oh, and one more thing: You said in your second-to-last sentence that the Reds have done similar "deals" (plural). Other than Cueto, what deals are you referring to?
04-30-2015, 01:01 PM
Chuckie
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom Servo
Worth noting that McCutchen had a 11.3 WAR in his first 3 seasons (09-11) with Pittsburgh, signed the extension before the 2012 season, and then put up a 21.4 WAR over the next three seasons (12-14). It was a great move by Pittsburgh to sign him when they did, but they weren't paying for an MVP candidate when they signed him.
That's just one example Tom. Overall as an organization, they do a great job of team-friendly contracts. You'll notice they have exactly zero long-term contracts that will cripple them going forward. They do an excellent job of studying sabermetrics and they have a knack for finding quality starting pitching on the cheap (relatively speaking). Meanwhile, the Reds fill out their rotation by signing washed-up non-roster invitees like Jason Marquis. Largely because they have so much money tied up in certain players and don't have the financial flexibility to find bargains on the open market. And by "bargains" I mean legit MLB players; not washed-up scrubs.
04-30-2015, 01:53 PM
jojo
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larkin88
Oh this again. Joy.
Yes, the gift of truth is a joyous giving.
04-30-2015, 01:58 PM
kbrake
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuckie
You can think it's "absolute nonsense" ... that's fine. As I said, it's just my opinion, but I would bet big that Homer doesn't get that contract without the two no-nos. We'll never know for sure, so safe to say we can agree to disagree on this one. I'm not going to change my mind and you aren't going to change yours. All good.
Oh, and one more thing: You said in your second-to-last sentence that the Reds have done similar "deals" (plural). Other than Cueto, what deals are you referring to?
I didn't mean to come across as a jerk with the absolute nonsense thing I've just seen so many people try to make that claim and it makes absolute no sense to me.
As for the other deals I liked the Bruce and Mesoraco contracts. I feel like Walt has done pretty well on the bigger stuff. Like the trades he has made and the contracts he has given outside of the Brandon Phillips extension. My issue with this front office is how they spend money and give away multi year deals to the smaller pieces on the roster. Why every journeyman bench piece has to have a two year deal I'll never understand.
04-30-2015, 02:18 PM
Larkin88
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by jojo
Yes, the gift of truth is a joyous giving.
:laugh:
Bet Latos is getting jazzed for that 6 yr/$96M deal right about now.
04-30-2015, 02:20 PM
jojo
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by Larkin88
:laugh:
Bet Latos is getting jazzed for that 6 yr/$96M deal right about now.
What a silly thing to argue.
04-30-2015, 02:22 PM
Larkin88
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by jojo
What a silly thing to argue.
All in good fun jojo. Trying to keep things cordial.
I remember that thread and the Cameron piece well. Love reading most of what he puts together.
04-30-2015, 02:31 PM
villain612
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuckie
Reds need to pay close attention to what the Pirates have been doing. When they sign their own players before they are free agents, they ALWAYS get a hometown discount. Look at McCutchen's contract for an example.
I bet McCutchen doesn't give a discount on his soon-to-be monster next contract.
04-30-2015, 03:10 PM
REDREAD
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by _Sir_Charles_
Who SHOULD he have done it with? Just curious.
IMO, Homer was the PERFECT target. Latos & Cueto were both coming off injuries. Homer had just finished his 2013 season where we saw him improve in every season for .....
6 straight years in WHIP
3 straight years in FIP
3 straight years in HR/9
3 straight years in K/9
7 straight years in SO/K ratio
6 straight years in K's
4 straight years in IP
6 straight years in ERA
I certainly haven't seen anybody else doing that. He was the perfect target. Unfortunately, the injury bug hit him too.
Yea, I agree with this.
It's a bummer Homer got hurt. But it's just part of doing business.
Kind of like the Marshall deal.
At the time, it seemed like a good idea.
Happens to other teams too.
The Cards gave Jaime Garcia a 4 year contract, with 2 team option years (both have buyouts)
Not as much $ as Homer, but they took a risk and got burned too.
This is not to bash the Cards, I'm just saying that just about every club that is trying to win has a contract like this blow up in their face.
If you don't ever take a risk like signing Homer, eventually the talent base shrinks to the point where it takes many years to recover.
And I will say a lot of Walt's extensions have worked out well: the first Cueto extension, all the Arroyo extensions, and even Votto has worked out relatively well.
04-30-2015, 03:14 PM
REDREAD
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by 757690
I'm not in favor of guaranteeing big money to pitchers in their 30's.
But if the Reds took that stance, Arroyo would not have been extended twice (and many on RZ didn't think Arroyo should've been signed)
In 2011, Cueto was given a 5 year deal which was pretty decent coin at the time. Now Cueto was not over 30.. that is a good point.
I mean, if the Reds are conservative, even if just about Arroyo, it could've potentially cost them a playoff appearance or two, just by not having Arroyo. Now maybe Arroyo doesn't qualify as big money, but I guess the point is that sometimes longterm deals do work out.
04-30-2015, 03:22 PM
paulrichjr
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom Servo
Anybody who thought Cueto, Latos, and Leake were all going to get paid after Homer's contract was announced was kidding themselves. And Homer's contract didn't max out anything.
Flipping one of Bailey/Latos and resigning the other was the right move, letting Leake walk if he expects $13 million plus a season would be the right move, and not signing Johnny Cueto to a $200 million jumbo contract would also be the right move.
I didn't mean all three of them. In fact earlier in the quote I just named two (I do see how you thought that though). I still say everyone would have been ticked if we had known that there would be very little money for a bullpen, a bench, and at least one but probably two of the three I mentioned.
04-30-2015, 06:14 PM
AtomicDumpling
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by REDREAD
But if the Reds took that stance, Arroyo would not have been extended twice (and many on RZ didn't think Arroyo should've been signed)
In 2011, Cueto was given a 5 year deal which was pretty decent coin at the time. Now Cueto was not over 30.. that is a good point.
I mean, if the Reds are conservative, even if just about Arroyo, it could've potentially cost them a playoff appearance or two, just by not having Arroyo. Now maybe Arroyo doesn't qualify as big money, but I guess the point is that sometimes longterm deals do work out.
The Arroyo extension did not work out well. Arroyo was drastically overpaid for his mediocre production. That money could have been better spent on a better player. At least he didn't get hurt until he joined the Diamondbacks.
I would also classify the Rolen, Phillips, Marshall, Broxton, Bailey and Hannahan extensions as bad decisions. The jury is still out on the Votto mega-extension.
People forget the huge amount of money the Reds gave Rolen for his injury-riddled seasons of below-average production. I guess he gets a pass because he arrived at the same time Votto, Cueto, Bruce, Frazier and Bailey replaced Dunn, Griffey and Milton.
04-30-2015, 06:38 PM
SweetLou1990
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Having Arroyo eating 200 innings a year is heck of a lot better than a replacement, say a Marquis. Arroyo never had a top arm, but some nights he had top stuff and junk. Having a guy like that to fill out a rotation ain't all bad. Another case also where Walt walked away at the right time.
04-30-2015, 08:19 PM
Tom Servo
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling
The Arroyo extension did not work out well. Arroyo was drastically overpaid for his mediocre production. That money could have been better spent on a better player. At least he didn't get hurt until he joined the Diamondbacks.
By my count Arroyo made just around $70 million total with the Reds for 8 years (with 265 games started and 1,690 innings thrown) and 21.5 total WAR. Seems pretty reasonable.
04-30-2015, 08:25 PM
Wonderful Monds
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Just an update, I am currently writing a song that channels 80s synth pop + The Cure titled "I Want to Be Humiliated (How Old Am I?)"
04-30-2015, 08:27 PM
cincrazy
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by AtomicDumpling
The Arroyo extension did not work out well. Arroyo was drastically overpaid for his mediocre production. That money could have been better spent on a better player. At least he didn't get hurt until he joined the Diamondbacks.
I would also classify the Rolen, Phillips, Marshall, Broxton, Bailey and Hannahan extensions as bad decisions. The jury is still out on the Votto mega-extension.
People forget the huge amount of money the Reds gave Rolen for his injury-riddled seasons of below-average production. I guess he gets a pass because he arrived at the same time Votto, Cueto, Bruce, Frazier and Bailey replaced Dunn, Griffey and Milton.
Bronson Arroyo was great for this team. This current staff could totally use a guy like that. Despite all of the impending doom posts from many over the years, he only had one bad year, and that was due to a bad back and mono.
04-30-2015, 08:35 PM
jojo
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by cincrazy
Bronson Arroyo was great for this team. This current staff could totally use a guy like that. Despite all of the impending doom posts from many over the years, he only had one bad year, and that was due to a bad back and mono.
Arroyo will go down in history as completely forgettable.
04-30-2015, 08:37 PM
Tom Servo
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by jojo
Arroyo will go down in history as completely forgettable.
Kind of like the last 12 years of the Seattle Mariners existence, eh? :)
04-30-2015, 08:42 PM
jojo
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom Servo
Kind of like the last 12 years of the Seattle Mariners existence, eh? :)
You mean the Seattle Felix's?
04-30-2015, 10:43 PM
klw
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by fipp
How old are you? Do you want to be humiliated?
04-30-2015, 10:58 PM
kbrake
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by jojo
Arroyo will go down in history as completely forgettable.
He was very good in Cincinnati. He'll end up in the Reds HOF and won't be forgotten in Cincinnati.
04-30-2015, 10:59 PM
klw
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds
Just an update, I am currently writing a song that channels 80s synth pop + The Cure titled "I Want to Be Humiliated (How Old Am I?)"
Sounds like the title of a Smiths/ Morrissey song.
04-30-2015, 11:04 PM
Tracy Jones
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by kbrake
He was very good in Cincinnati. He'll end up in the Reds HOF and won't be forgotten in Cincinnati.
Yep.
Had a 105 ERA+ in his 8 years here, which would have been better save for his awful 2011 and his propensity to give up 10 runs in 2 innings once or twice every year.
He had far more good starts than bad during his time as a Red.
04-30-2015, 11:12 PM
westofyou
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by kbrake
He was very good in Cincinnati. He'll end up in the Reds HOF and won't be forgotten in Cincinnati.
Yep, he will also show up and give great interviews all over the place and smile and shake hands with people who will remember his high kick, arm slots, cheesy guitar and flowing hair.
Not the speed of his fastball or his ERA+
04-30-2015, 11:14 PM
Tom Servo
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by westofyou
Yep, he will also show up and give great interviews all over the place and smile and shake hands with people who will remember his high kick, arm slots, cheesy guitar and flowing hair.
Not the speed of his fastball or his ERA+
and this.
04-30-2015, 11:20 PM
KronoRed
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by jojo
Arroyo will go down in history as completely forgettable.
We'll remember him anchoring the 2016 rotation.
05-01-2015, 01:56 AM
cincrazy
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
I really don't understand those incapable of appreciating what Arroyo was. He's one of my favorite Reds of all time, and was one of the first arms in damn near decades that this organization could count on to go out there every 5 days and throw a quality start. No he was never an ace, but I think to a large extent he played a huge role on that starting staff (as Mat Latos himself discussed in an interview earlier this year), and is one of the most popular guys from the Dusty Baker era Reds. Quite honestly he's one of the Reds I'll remember the fondest.
05-01-2015, 07:59 AM
jojo
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by kbrake
He was very good in Cincinnati. He'll end up in the Reds HOF and won't be forgotten in Cincinnati.
Sure Cincinnati will remember a guy who started for the Reds for so long. But his career with them isnt associated with anything memorable, as player he was average to back end of the rotation for his tenure, was more a testament (or really a bellwether for the quality of the reds defense) to his defense than anything, and nationally, he's got a cool bobblehead for the small group of fans who are into that. Locally, a fan favorite. nationally a bobble head. History won't much remember that.
05-01-2015, 08:26 AM
kpresidente
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by jojo
Sure Cincinnati will remember a guy who started for the Reds for so long. But his career with them isnt associated with anything memorable, as player he was average to back end of the rotation for his tenure, was more a testament (or really a bellwether for the quality of the reds defense) to his defense than anything, and nationally, he's got a cool bobblehead for the small group of fans who are into that. Locally, a fan favorite. nationally a bobble head. History won't much remember that.
And? History, in the sense you're talking about, doesn't remember 95% of players. Why does that warrant a comment?
05-01-2015, 08:56 AM
jojo
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by kpresidente
And? History, in the sense you're talking about, doesn't remember 95% of players. Why does that warrant a comment?
Why doesn't it warrant a comment? The discussion is about the magnitude of his greatness. He wasn't even great for the Reds as a player. He was around a long time as a Red at a position where the organization lacks poster boys. He was a fan favorite.
05-01-2015, 09:54 AM
RedTeamGo!
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
I think Arroyo will be remembered nationally for awhile for the play in the ALCS where he ran to first on a come backer and scumbag A-rod slapped the ball out of his glove.
Arroyo was certainly a BOR starter, there were times where I complained about him, but now that he is gone I miss him on the Reds.
Texas is very worried about Shin-Soo Choo, who is been absolutely abysmal this month (.096). Team higher-ups have had extensive talks about his unfathomable slump, and there seems to be a belief in his talent but also a belief that the $130-million free-agent contract is weighing on him. There also may be a confidence issue. If Texas grows impatient, well, the Yankees still like him (they actually bid about the same, $140 million but with state tax), and they may still – though a deal would be highly unlikely as a good chunk of that contract would have to be offset …
If his confidence is the problem, I'm not sure going to New York is the answer.
05-01-2015, 01:14 PM
westofyou
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom Servo
If his confidence is the problem, I'm not sure going to New York is the answer.
Unless he wants to be humiliated
05-01-2015, 01:31 PM
villain612
Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract
Quote:
Texas is very worried about Shin-Soo Choo, who is been absolutely abysmal this month (.096). Team higher-ups have had extensive talks about his unfathomable slump, and there seems to be a belief in his talent but also a belief that the $130-million free-agent contract is weighing on him. There also may be a confidence issue. If Texas grows impatient, well, the Yankees still like him (they actually bid about the same, $140 million but with state tax), and they may still – though a deal would be highly unlikely as a good chunk of that contract would have to be offset …