If there is one thing about the AFL that has been demonstrated year after year after year...it is that the stats there are not a good indicator of much of anything.
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If there is one thing about the AFL that has been demonstrated year after year after year...it is that the stats there are not a good indicator of much of anything.
There is simply too much time between when the minor league games stop and the AFL begins. The entire season is like April stats where fringe guys are among the league leaders and MVPs are hitting .220. These guys are starting fresh and some get off to fast starts and the others start slow. The season isn't long enough for the cream to rise to the top. I used to care about these stats and follow it closely, but I think this is more about adding reps to make up for lost time earlier or possibly pull ahead the next promotion. I'm not sure the stats matter as much as just being on the field getting those reps.
I agree with all of the above about the AFL and I'm generally a fan of Jonathan India's. Can't help but like walk rate, which, when he develops some SLG to go with it, should make for good OPS support. But I can't help but observe that we always seem to be explaining why he hasn't done as much as we'd really expect etc. I think next year it's time for him to do some convincing rather that for us to be convincing ourselves.
Baseball America update from Sept 30 (yesterday)
Jonathan India, 2B, Reds. India had an RBI double in four at-bats for Glendale. India played mostly third base this season at high Class A Daytona and after he was promoted to Double-A Chattanooga as well. His athleticism adds value as he can move around the diamond, but India has struggled with the bat, hitting just .038/.167/.077 through 26 at-bats so far in the Arizona Fall League
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...ember-30-2019/
Again, in the minors it doesn't. A lot of the pitchers aren't very good. If taking a BB is your leading tool down there, it's not likely to carry you that far. Here's a sampling of the MiLB BB leaders from past seasons with sub-.260 BAs and who happen to be 24 or younger.
2014
Taylor Brennan
Preston Beck
Michael Ratterree
Michael Reed
Matt Skole
2015
Matt Olson
Danny Hayes
Sherman Johnson
Drew Robinson
Braxton Davidson
2016
Max Moroff
Josh Ockimey
Christin Stewart
Derek Fisher
Jon Singleton
Outside of Olson it's a pretty inauspicious list. Now, I'm not saying India is fated to disappoint. What I am saying is many forgettable hitters take a lot of BBs in the minors. It is not because they are fearsome hitters.
Good hitters take pitches they think they can't drive, unless they're protecting with two strikes. They take aggressive swings on pitches they think they can drive.
It's the approach that makes the hitter great. But you're right in that most human beings don't have the athleticism or mentality it takes to have that approach consistently for years. Votto, Larkin, and maybe Davis are the only Reds who seem to have been able to do it. Suarez is rapidly approaching that as well.
4-7 with a hr in his last 2 games