I'm thinking he'd go #5 in this draft. His per 36 was 19.3/9.7 with 1.6 blocks. Also, I'm not wild about the cliff in this draft after the #4 pick.
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I think Ball has a pretty strong case for #1 if it is based on what we know from last year. Are any of this years guys going to put up 16/6/6 (Per 36 numbers of 20/8/8) and shoot 35% from 3 as a 6'6" guard that can play on and off ball? If you watch LaMelo, he is still very raw but he has the ability to change a game beyond the boxscore numbers with his ability to play at pace and move the ball. I think Edwards would likely go in the #7-#10 range. Wiseman probably in a similar range. In regards to Wiseman, it would depend on how many teams would be willing the draft a more traditional Center in the lottery, as he would clearly be behind Mobley.
Interesting take. I am curious to see if Cunningham, Mosley and Suggs will have stronger rookie years than Ball, Edwards and Wiseman.
I am surprised Green has passed Suggs. Whatever the stats say, GS is down on Wiseman. Down as in they will trade him before a decision on his first three years.
We disagree pretty strongly on the value of Wiseman and Barnes.
Barnes is a phenomenal defensive player, but there are serious questions about all of his offensive game. Those types of players tend to struggle for years to establish/ learn how to help on the offensive side.
We also disagree on the value of Ross.
His offensive rating last year was 103. For his career, he's at 105. Defensively, he was a sieve (115 last season).
The Warriors, as a championship-chasing club, can find that on the open market for cheaper than Ross's $12.5M-- and have the draft picks and players to get it too.
Wiseman, for all his warts, has a floor of what he provided last season. Which is much more than I think Barnes will provide over the next couple of years.
I am not sure if you are correct or incorrect, but I do think there is a ton of nuance in those situations depending on where Barnes lands. I think Wiseman benefits and will continue to benefit if he remains with GSW to play with guys like Steph and Draymond....those two guys are just going to make easier to highlight his strengths while hiding his weaknesses. If Barnes lands with Orlando or another non playoff team, he will not have that luxury.
Barnes grades high with ball handling, passing, and ability to attack the rim. I'll give you his shooting but that's it, the rest of his offensive game grades out well.
Ross is not winning any DPOY awards and he's far from it but you give him open 3s with the spacing that team will provide him and his offensive rating would be higher. He's nowhere near a star player but he's a solid veteran who can be lethal from outside and still has enough athleticism to attack the rim. He averaged 15.6 PPG shooting 41%/34%/85%.
The Warriors better outbid the others for Lillard, cause there don't seem to be too many stars on the move this offseason and they can't make any big FA signings.
Great news on that front!
Baylor guard Jared Butler medically cleared to play in NBA
https://therookiewire.usatoday.com/2...cally-cleared/
I think he's a sleeper great fit for just about every team. Great defense, great shooting. Secondary playmaker who also rebounds fairly well. A little loose with the ball, but in the more open NBA, that shouldn't be too big of an issue. Really like his fit in today's NBA.
Barnes' shot isn't just below average-- it's broken. He shot around 50% from the free throw line in his one season at FSU. That usually augers at least a three-year struggle to fix mechanics, break down old habits, and learn to shoot better. Most of the time, that doesn't work.
Now, I'm not saying he can't do it. But there's enough doubt there, for me, to keep him out of my top 10 list in a draft year seemingly filled with solid to above average rotational players.
More than that, Barnes' fit in Golden State is much poorer than Wiseman's. They're a team that's competing to win championships now. Why take on a less experienced developmental project when they'd be giving up on one just as highly rated, more experienced, playing the position in which they have a massive need?
looks good in PnG....
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E6h_kO1V...jpg&name=small
Anyone have a personal mock draft yet (aside from the one already posted)?
I'm torn as to whether we should include hypothetical trades or just pick players.
General thoughts:
1. It's going to be easier to build a team around Jalen Suggs than Evan Mobley or Jalen Green. He's the guy who's going to run your team and get the most out of the pieces around him. Look no farther than the NBA finals for an example of two teams with high PG IQ. Toronto probably can't believe its luck because it looks like Suggs is going to fall into their laps.
2. Kuminga seems the most likely to be an outright bust.
3. Davion Mitchell makes more sense to me on Orlando than on Golden State. The Warriors need some length (Franz Wagner or Josh Giddey might be good fits). Orlando needs a culture reset. Handing the keys over to Mitchell would be a good start.
4. If New Orleans passes on Moses Moody they're hopeless.
5. Age is a real bad reason to pass on a shooter as good as Chris Duarte.
6. OKC should be balling up all three of its first rounders in an effort to move into the top four, and Houston and Cleveland have bare enough cupboards that they should give that move serious consideration.
Word is both Toronto and Orlando have made offers to move up to #3 and the Cavs have received significant interest from teams for that pick.
BZ's Semi-Annual 2021 NBA Mock Draft
1. Detroit: Cade Cunningham
No need to overthink this. In a draft filled with what appear to be very good prospects, he's the best of the lot. Detroit might entertain offers, but I doubt anyone gives them the type of goods to actually make a deal make sense. Cunningham gives the Pistons a ball-dominant lead scorer and playmaker who actually plays some semblance of defense.
2. Houston: Jalen Green
The Rockets try to trade down, but only within the top echelon. Neither Cleveland nor Toronto call their bluff, so they make the upside play in Green. He's a great fit on a team that has two playmaking wings and Christian Wood as its base. That could well be a nice base from which to chase free agents. Green and Porter are going to be turnover-prone, and one of them has to find the desire to defend. (At least.) But I really like Green's fit here.
3. Toronto: Evan Mobley
TRADE ALERT Raps make a blockbuster deal with Cleveland and New York. (Knicks give RJ Barrett and their 19th pick to Toronto and receive Collin Sexton from Cleveland and Rodney Hood's desiccated corpse from Toronto. Cleveland ships Kevin Love to Toronto and gets Pascal Siakam and Malachi Flynn from Toronto.) Nice fit for the Raptors here, as they draft Mobley. He's a Serge Ibaka clone who should be able to knock down shots out to 15 feet right now and supply some rim protection while defending at a fairly high level from about January on. He won't need plays run for him, is a willing passer, and should fit Nick Nurse's offense like a glove. Really like this fit.
3. Cleveland: Jalen Suggs
And suddenly, Cleveland has a really interesting team. Siakam's a phenomenal get as the scorer and playmaker they need, and he falls into their lap a bit here. Not only that, Suggs can replace just about everything Sexton does well-- and also do all the things he did poorly better. His fit next to Garland is nearly perfect, and a starting five of Jarrett Allen (who'd have to be kept, even with a massive overpay), Siakam, Okoro, Suggs, and Garland could be a top four seed in a couple of seasons. Shorter if Suggs proves precocious.
5. Orlando: Scottie Barnes
Rumors afloat say that the Magic are enamored with Barnes. I don't like the fit, as he's a long, long way from being a contributor offensively-- his jump shot will need to be reworked completely. And the Magic desperately need guys who can score. You can find a dozen guys who can guard forwards and big guards, but what do I know? I'm just a fan.
6. Philadelphia: James Bouknight
TRADE ALERT Philly makes a gamble that Kemba still has it, trading its 28th pick, Mytisse Thybulle, and Ben Simmons for the 6th pick, a future number one, Kemba Walker, and Luguentz Dort. They then pick Bouknight to provide some second unit playmaking. The key here, obviously, is Walker. He helps them win now and, IMO, is a much better fit for the Sixers than Simmons. Bouknight teams with Maxey on the second unit to form an all-energy scoring unit that'll be fun to watch. Dort will play the Tony Allen role (though he can shoot far better). Like the deal for both teams.
7. Golden State: Jonathan Kuminga
Kuminga's mini-slide stops here, as he's too enticing as a possible defensive stopper and secondary playmaker. Golden State is playing for the future with this pick and Wiseman-- a wise strategy considering the age of Curry, Green, and Thompson. Kuminga learns on the job as a second unit Draymond Green PF clone. He'll need a year or two, but if he can learn shot selection, he's a solid fit.
8. Orlando: Keon Johnson
Orlando has a type. That type includes long arms, elite athleticism, and questionable jumpers. Johnson is Scottie Barnes without the defensive reputation. Monster athleticism, he's an upside pick that'll take a couple of years to develop-- if he does. Not my cup of tea, but it is what it is.
9. New Orleans: Moses Moody
TRADE ALERT Sacramento trades Buddy Hield and Marvin Bagley to NOLA for Steven Adams and a switch of first round picks, getting rid of two malcontents while filling a need at center (by overpaying in prospect, talent, and trade capital because KAINGZ!) NOLA wants Moody and sees him as Mykal Bridges Lite. They may be right. It's a great pick to balance out a team that's younger and more talented. If the GM doesn't screw it up.
10 Sacramento: Franz Wagner
Wagner should be solid defensively. He might be solid as a shooter-- if he works on that low release. I like his willingness as a passer, though he tried to do too much in college. As a tertiary playmaker, he could be fine. It's not what I'd do, but it's the most Kings thing to do.
11. Charlotte: Alperen Sengun
Again, it's not what I'd do, but I think this is what Charlotte will do. Sengun's put up some remarkable numbers in Turkey, and the big man is having a bit of a mini-Renaissance. Instead of paying through the nose for Richaun Holmes, the Hornets will grab Sengun and see if he's for real. It's a defensible upside pick.
12. San Antonio: Davion Mitchell
The Spurs aren't stupid. They know a value when they see one, and Mitchell is a phenomenal value at number 12. He can play either guard spot, and, with Keldon Johnson's Olympic play a catalyst for a jump in production, Mitchell and Johnson form a more than capable wing component post-DeRozan. Mitchell's a scorer, defender, passer, and rebounder. He is, in this spot, a great bet for the All-Rookie 1st Team.
13. Indiana: Corey Kispert
The Pacers also have a type, and Kispert is a great fit here. He can fill the Dougie McBuckets role as a shoot-first 3-and-D guy (who, in this lineup, isn't really required to D all that much). He's a win-now guy too. If Lamb, LeVert, and Warren are healthy, he's kind of superfluous, but when has that ever happened in Indiana?
14. Washington: Kai Jones
TRADE ALERT Golden State, attempting to win it all, deals this pick and Andrew Wiggins to Washington for Davis Bertans and Thomas Bryant. While neither plays anything resembling defense, both are excellent shooters at their positions and should make the Warriors an incredibly interesting team. The Wiz can now play a bit smaller, with Daniel Gafford given as much time as he deserves (to see if he's for real). Jones becomes a PF/ C defense-first guy whose upside is massive. I think he'll play more PF but can toggle between the two right now and not kill his team.
15. New York: Trey Murphy
TRADE ALERT The Knicks package both later first rounders to move up to draft Murphy. They see an elite catch-and-shoot wing who pairs nicely with Sexton, Randle, and perhaps Toppin. (I'm waiting for the Knicks to realize that Toppin and Randle can play together with Toppin as a small ball center. It may take another year.) Murphy becomes the shooter they needed last season, when Reggie Bullock couldn't make one in the post-season.
16. Oklahoma City: Jalen Johnson
OKC goes upside with Jalen Johnson. He's got all the tools, and the Thunder need guys wings who can shoot. Will he stick it out? I'm guessing SGA can help him a bit here, as can the Thunder development people. I like this pick for this team at this point. Johnson will have a lot to prove-- and I think he might. (Duke and Coach K aren't for everyone.)
17. Memphis: Josh Giddey
Another upside play here, Giddey will need some time to develop. He doesn't have a shot yet and will need to experience the speed with which the NBA plays, but he's a 6'9" PG who can handle, pass, and rebound. I like him as a second unit point forward, a la Paul Pressey. Memphis needs wings, but he's too talented to let slip.
18. Oklahoma City: Chris Duarte
OKC needs shooters, and Duarte might be the best one in the draft. He's also a good (and willing) defender. Reminds me of Tyler Herro. Best for Duarte, he has a role as a starter for OKC. Speaking of, the Thunder would have a starting five of SGA, Duarte, Johnson, Simmons, and Poku. That's an All-NBA Pass Team. They'd lead the league in TOs, assists, and highlight reels.
19. Washington: Usman Garuba
Garuba has a high floor and should be among the better defenders in the league from the day he's signed. Reminds me of Ben Wallace, in terms of motor, aggressiveness, and willingness to do the dirty work. Unfortunately, he's also similar to Wallace offensively. Still, with Jones (not to mention holdovers Hachimura and Gafford), Garuba will create a formidable frontline of willing defenders for Washington.
20. Portland: Jared Butler
TRADE ALERT The biggest deal of the night is a true blockbuster. The Blazers give up Dame Time for the 20th pick, DeAndre Hunter, and the rights to John Collins (signed to a $22+M contract with escalators). It's a re-tooling, of sorts, but may make them better, as they pick a great combo guard, Butler, who's going to guard people, can shoot from all three areas, and should be a help from day one. Like the deal for both squads... If Trae Young's willing to share.
21. Washington: Cam Thomas
Thomas is a scorer. He's Lou Williams with even less conscience-- and even less of a desire to play defense. He might average double figures his first season, but his defense will determine his value. In other words, he's what would happen if you cloned Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal together.
22. Los Angeles: Trey Mann
Mann's been a bit under the radar, and that works well for the Lakers. He's a shooter who has the tools to be good defensively as well. Nice value here.
23. Houston: Sharife Cooper
Undersized PGs don't end up very valuable most of the time. Especially those who struggle to shoot. But Cooper has fantastic change of direction and might be a solid second unit guy for awhile. Meh pick. At this point, just about anything the Rockets do helps their roster. They're building depth here.
24. Houston: Charles Bassey
The Rockets surprise with the addition of Bassey, an oft-injured but productive big (emphasis on BIG) from WKU. He's got really soft hands, a penchant for rebounding, and can score from a variety of post moves. This (and the likely re-signing of Olynyk) allows Wood to defend the smaller of the two frontcourt players Houston plays. That should save some minutes for their would-be second star.
25. LA Clippers: Bones Hyland
All Hyland has done is dominate scrimmages, according to sources around NBA circles. The Clippers have everything (assuming Kawhi stays put), but that dog PG. Perhaps he's it. He's worth the shot this low. I like the gamble here.
26. Denver: Joe Wieskamp
The Nuggets need shooters and ball handlers. Wieskamp is perhaps the best shooter in the draft. He'll get lots of open looks and could surprise in terms of production. This is a little higher than most project him, but shooting is at a premium, and he fits Denver's need now (with Murray hurt) and perhaps later (as Porter's backup).
27. Brooklyn: Isaiah Jackson
In this mock, Jackson is a big slider, and the Nets get a lottery talent way lower than he should be drafted. The Nets need some defense and rim protection, and Jackson is an energy/ defense jumping jack who'll luck into two or three dunks and blocks a night-- and probably foul out in 10 minutes. He's Mitchell Robinson Redux. Given the right coaching and development, he's a great pick this low. He fits the Nets like no other team in the game, as they won't ever ask him to do much of anything other than what he already does well-- rebound, block shots, defend, and run like hell.
28. Oklahoma City: Day'Ron Sharpe
OKC rounds out its draft with a weakness-- a big center. Poku could fake it... if he gained 50 lbs. (No, check that. Poku might break the world if he gained 50 lbs.) Simmons could be a next-gen rich man's/ better version of Bam at center too. (I want that so much.) But OKC is a bit more orthodox in its lineup construction, so they settle on the former Tar Heel. Sharpe provides good hands and a massive frame. If nothing more, he's six (hard) fouls. With work, he could end up like another former UNC player, Brendan Haywood.
29. Phoenix: Jaden Springer
Springer is likely to replace Cam Payne on the roster (JeVon Carter, IMO, takes most of Payne's minutes.) That's a good fit for the Suns, as they'll need his legs. Could play dividends as early as next season-- Chris Paul is 115 in NBA player years. He can't shoot yet, but Phoenix seems to figure that out. Good with the ball, Springer showed improvement all season and really doesn't belong this low in a typical draft. He's a steal this low.
30. Utah: Ziaire Williams
Things couldn't have worked out more perfectly for Utah if they scripted it. Williams is a lottery talent who slides to the last pick in the first round-- where he'll almost immediately get an opportunity for real minutes on a championship-caliber club. Best of all for Williams, it's in the west. He may need some time, but Quin Snyder will figure out how to use Williams well early, then as a possible difference-maker in year two.
Big fan of Bassey and Wieskamp. I could see them sneaking into the first. Another guy to watch is Aaron Wiggins, who sort of reminds me of Anthony Edwards.
I appreciate all the work you put into that post- it was a really fun read. That being said, if Philly does something like this, I'd expect Embiid to demand a trade in short order. Prime-age, healthy Kemba might be a decent target, but his knees may just be shot. Dort didn't shoot well last season at all (47% shooting Efficiency last season, 34.3% from beyond the arc). Bouknight posted a three-point percentage in college of sub-30% (29.3%) last season. I watched a bunch of film on him as he'd maybe be a target at 28 (although, yes, he's recently been climbing in some mocks). I didn't see anything resembling a real handle and he was used way too much in the dunker spot for my tastes. The guy smells a bit too much like Zhaire Smith; the basketball version of an "If he hits..." prospect. I wouldn't give up Simmons by himself for that kind of return, and absolutely wouldn't be throwing in Thybulle.
If Philly can't get in on someone like Lillard, Beal, or LaVine (maybe McCollum...maybe), they need to wait.
Big trade between the Pelicans and the Grizz.
New Orleans sent Eric Bledsoe, Steven Adams, picks #10 and #40 in this draft and the Laker's top 10 protected 1st rounder next season in exchange for Jonas Valanciunas and picks #17 and #51 in this draft.
First impression is I like the deal for New Orleans a lot more than Memphis. Valanciunas is the best player in the deal and I think he'll slot in next to Zion much better than Adams. They also have some cash to spend on free agents. The Grizz immediately get worse and have less cash on hand. It's also hard to imagine the difference between picks 10 and 17 is going to net them much extra in the way of near-term help.
I have nothing to add about the draft, other than to say that Moses Moody is an All-NBA caliber name.
Don't know where else to put this, but is anybody else watching Olympic basketball and thinking the ball looks like a pretzel bite?
Givony's new mock has Orlando getting Barnes @ #5 and Kuminga @ #8....that would be very good for Orlando.
Maybe.
Neither is a good shooter at all.
They'll defend, of course. But Orlando needs guys who can fill it up. Last season, they ranked 30 in field goal percentage-- and that was with Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier, and Nicola Vucevic. Okeke, Ross, Anthony, Fultz, Bamba, Hampton, Garry Harris-- none of them have shown a penchant for shooting well. Adding two more would be a difficult ask of an offense that labors even under the best of circumstances.
I'd package them to move up in order to draft Jalen Green (if possible). If that didn't work, I'd move down or just draft a shooter with at least one of the picks. There are lots to choose from-- Davion Mitchell, Chris Duarte, Moritz's little bro, Corey Kispert.
Bledsoe and the Knicks are destined to be together.
Jaylen Green, Evan Mobley and Jaden Springer are three prospects in this year’s draft that I think have a good combination of skill and physical projection. Of course their development will depend on which organizations draft them, their coachability and luck (injuries, opportunities for playing time, etc).
I disagree....the Magic are near ground zero in their rebuild. They should be focused on the highest upside guys possible. This is not about winning games this year or next....this is about finding a future All Star or even Superstar. Both of these guys have All Star level ceilings....and even though Kuminga clearly has a "bust" floor, the risk is worth it at this point in the rebuild. In two years, maybe they need to become a little more conservative with their swings, but I think this is the exact time to have pure freedom with big swings.
We disagree in our philosophies.
I'm targeting upside All-Star level guys who have higher floors with at least one of those picks. To be clear, I'm okay with one upside pick of Barnes or Kuminga, but not both. Targeting, say, Barnes and Moses Moody strikes me as the best choice for both this year and the rebuild in general.
Were I the Magic GM, I'd probably look to trade up or down with those two top 10 picks. I'd also look to see who wanted Terrence Ross. (I'd call the Lakers about a sign-and-trade with THT to gauge interest there, if possible.) There are a ton of other options, as they should be in the catbird seat when other teams want to trade up. (The Knicks might be a prime team, but I'd want a lightly protected 2022 first rounder and their 21st pick this year instead of the two picks in 2021. OKC would be another option.)
Updates:
Detroit announced they will select Cade Cunningham #1 overall tonight
New York interested in trading for Terrence Ross. Could potentially send one of their two 1sts (19/21) to Orlando.
Lakers look to package the #22 along with Kuzma, potentially for Buddy Hield but sounds like Harrell would also be in the deal
Sixers are looking across the league for a Simmons suitor. The price is steep (likened to the Harden package). If that's the case I wouldnt expect many suitors. Philadelphia needs to stop pretending that Simmons is a superstar.