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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by
edabbs44
* Bonus - A "Heisey vs Gomes" thread is started before May 1. ;)
Sure you don't mean April 1? ;)
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
Either would be a nice addition, but there's no way the Reds take on his salary without shedding some. We'd have to ship out Cordero, Arroyo or Phillips to make that work, but only Cordero makes sense and he's not part of the payroll next year so the savings would be limited.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
1.) Sam LeCure + Matt Maloney combine for 30 starts.
2.) Drew Stubbs struggles the entire season at the plate and hits under .230.
3.) Devin Mesoraco is the team's everyday catcher, spelled ocassionally by Hanigan, by seasons' end, and Yonder Alonso is the team's starting LF.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RedsManRick
Either would be a nice addition, but there's no way the Reds take on his salary without shedding some. We'd have to ship out Cordero, Arroyo or Phillips to make that work, but only Cordero makes sense and he's not part of the payroll next year so the savings would be limited.
I think they could take him on for the last two months of the season (<$3MM to the Reds) without shedding anything substantial- especially if Cast is "serious about winning" and this puts them over the edge. As far as next year goes, they lose Cordero but will still likely have to choose between keeping Ethier or Phillips at $12MM for the year. There could be worse choices to make.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
1. Jay Bruce struggles for the first half of the year, but still manages 25HR by year's end.
2. Edinson Volquez also starts slowly, but becomes the TOR guy the Reds need by the ASB. He wins 20 and is in the top-5 for Cy.
3. Chris Carpenter is traded to the Yankees near the trade deadline as the Cards fall out of contention early. This is just part of the Cards implosion that also results in the Redbirds being forced to trade Colby Rasmus. Albert Pujols contract issues dog the Cardinals all year and reaches a boiling point as the trade deadline approaches.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
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Originally Posted by
Benihana
I think they could take him on for the last two months of the season (<$3MM to the Reds) without shedding anything substantial- especially if Cast is "serious about winning" and this puts them over the edge. As far as next year goes, they lose Cordero but will still likely have to choose between keeping Ethier or Phillips at $12MM for the year. There could be worse choices to make.
I agree. But I don't think we'd give up much value for a rental. That's not Jocketty's style. And in terms of being forced to choose between Phillips and Ethier, we've got more options in LF than we do at 2B, unless Valaika or Negron really perform well this year.
Also, I haven't seen Ethier play much, so I can't attest to his defense, but UZRs of -8.3, -13.5, and -15.4 suggest to me that he's not an OF. And to top it off, he's a lefty, making us even more lefty heavy.
In a bubble I like the idea. But the more I look at it, the less sense it makes.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
Ethier isn't all that great. He's a poor OF with a career .856 OPS and an expensive contract. At best, he's a league average LF, which, imo, isn't worth a lot more than what the Reds already have. I wouldn't want the Reds to give up much talent to get him.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
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Originally Posted by
GoReds
1. Jay Bruce struggles for the first half of the year, but still manages 25HR by year's end.
2. Edinson Volquez also starts slowly, but becomes the TOR guy the Reds need by the ASB. He wins 20 and is in the top-5 for Cy.
3. Chris Carpenter is traded to the Yankees near the trade deadline as the Cards fall out of contention early. This is just part of the Cards implosion that also results in the Redbirds being forced to trade Colby Rasmus. Albert Pujols contract issues dog the Cardinals all year and reaches a boiling point as the trade deadline approaches.
These sound the most likely of all the ones I've read so far.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
1. The Reds will make a major trade this summer prior to the trading deadline to finally bring that legit No. 1 starter to Cincinnati
2. Brandon Phillips will have a monster season
3. The Rockies will be in the NLCS
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RedsManRick
I agree. But I don't think we'd give up much value for a rental. That's not Jocketty's style. And in terms of being forced to choose between Phillips and Ethier, we've got more options in LF than we do at 2B, unless Valaika or Negron really perform well this year.
Also, I haven't seen Ethier play much, so I can't attest to his defense, but UZRs of -8.3, -13.5, and -15.4 suggest to me that he's not an OF. And to top it off, he's a lefty, making us even more lefty heavy.
In a bubble I like the idea. But the more I look at it, the less sense it makes.
I love the idea of Either. And if it were up to me I would replace Either with Phillips in a heart beat. I think Either is trending the right direction while I think Phillips is trending in the wrong direction. I also think its easier to find a suitable replacement at 2b than it is to find an impact OF bat.
I would agree that the Reds would be LH heavy but I with Votto that evens out. Votto hits both hands equally well so I don't think its much of an issue. I could live with a line up of Bruce-Votto-Rolen-Either 2-3-4-5 because of Votto's ability to hit LHP's. Now if you insert Francisco into the lineup as a replacement for Rolen it would get interesting.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
1) Bruce jumps out to a hot start, and makes the All Star team. Slows a bit as the season wears on, but still tops 35 homers and a .900 OPS.
2) Aroldis Chapman hits 107 on a juiced up scoreboard radar reading sometime in June or July. A segment of "The art of the game" with Chris Welsh is lated taped where Arolids explains his technique. Chris Carpentar's son is forced to watch.
3) Pujols is traded to the Yankees in by the trading deadline.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
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Originally Posted by
bucksfan2
I love the idea of Either. And if it were up to me I would replace Either with Phillips in a heart beat. I think Either is trending the right direction while I think Phillips is trending in the wrong direction. I also think its easier to find a suitable replacement at 2b than it is to find an impact OF bat.
Phillips, even with his injury late in the year, improved his WAR from 3 to 4 last year. Either has been trending downward from 3.4 to 2.7 to 2.2 for last year, and that has been a result of both his offense and his defense.
Also, there were 7 above average 2B in the majors last year. There were 7 impact bats who can play outfield in the NL West last year.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
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Originally Posted by
Reds/Flyers Fan
1. The Reds will make a major trade this summer prior to the trading deadline to finally bring that legit No. 1 starter to Cincinnati
2. Brandon Phillips will have a monster season
3. The Rockies will be in the NLCS
Who will we be giving up?
For those saying Ethier is coming here too.. who is the trading chip? Leake?
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
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Originally Posted by
Ghosts of 1990
For those saying Ethier is coming here too.. who is the trading chip? Leake?
Could be Leake, Alonso, Francisco, or even Grandal- who knows? I'll go with one of those four for now.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
1. The Yankees will miss the playoffs. (Pitching won't hold up)
2. Jay Bruce will hit more than 40 HR's.
3. The Phillies will miss the playoffs. (Utley breaks down further, and their lineup is way, way overrated).
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
1. Jay Bruce hits 42 home runs
2. Juan Francisco hits more home runs than Scott Rolen
3. No Reds starter wins more than 14 games.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
Reds related:
1) Chapman will break his own major league record for fastest pitch thrown in a game. Three times.
2) Mesoraco will share starting catching duties by the end of the year.
3) The Reds will win the division
MLB related:
1) At least five managers will be fired before season's end. At least one of them will be a New York manager. Yes, Joe will be one of those.
2) Not only will neither NY team make the playoffs, neither will finish above .500.
3) Jeter will prove that last season was not only not a fluke, but that old age is catching up with him. Still, he will win a Gold Glove.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
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Originally Posted by
Benihana
Could be Leake, Alonso, Francisco, or even Grandal- who knows? I'll go with one of those four for now.
I'll add Sappelt and LaMarre to the list of trade candidates as well.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
1. Oakland A's win the AL West
2. Matt Holliday becomes the NL MVP
3. Kyle McClellan wins 18 games.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
Quote:
2. Matt Holliday becomes the NL MVP
3. Kyle McClellan wins 18 games.
April Fools! ;)
320
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
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Originally Posted by
757690
Phillips, even with his injury late in the year, improved his WAR from 3 to 4 last year. Either has been trending downward from 3.4 to 2.7 to 2.2 for last year, and that has been a result of both his offense and his defense.
Also, there were 7 above average 2B in the majors last year. There were 7 impact bats who can play outfield in the NL West last year.
Im really not a huge fan of WAR comparisons. IMO they are too skewed towards the defensive end of the game. When you have a good defensive player at a position it will inflate his WAR when comparing it to other players.
There is no doubt that Either has a better bat than Phillips. And if you move Either to LF his defense won't be as big of a hindrance as it was out in RF. I also think its much easier to find a replaceable 2b than it is to find an impact bat. Phillips is an enigma to me. Nice pop for a 2b, great D, not good against RHP, and doesn't carry a good OBP. If you were able to replace Phillips with a guy who wasn't as good on D, didn't have as much power, but had a better OBP it may just fit the lineup better. It may allow you to drop Stubbs in the lineup to take advantage of his power.
Its easy to make comparisons based upon isloating two players. But the reality is its how each player fits into the grand scheme of the team. IMO Either in LF + Valakia/Frazier/etc. at 2B is better than Gomes in LF and Phillips at 2b.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
A lot of these predictions are very similar which would make them not so bold IMO. Gave my Reds predictions earlier (at least one is pretty bold I'd say), Here are some for the rest of baseball with an eye on boldness:
AL
1. Adam Dunn leads the AL in HR and RBI and wins the MVP with the White Sox winning the Central.
2. Trevor Cahill wins the AL Cy Young award and leads the A's to the AL West title and ultimately an appearance in the World Series.
3. Derek Jeter quiets his critics with a huge comeback season and wins the AL Batting Title with an average above .350
NL
1. Seth Smith makes a Cargo like improvement in 2011 and teams with Cargo and Tulo as top 10 guys for the MVP award and the Rockies run away with the NL West and best record in the NL.
2. The Cardinals are out of the race by the All Star break and not only is Carpenter dealt at the deadline, but Pujols relents with his threat to void any trade and is dealt to an AL team and the Cards ride the young acquisitions to the best record in the NL in September.
3. The New York Mets fail to win 60 games.
World Series Champ - The Colorado Rockies.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by
GOYA
Homer throws a no-hitter
Francisco hits one in the top row of the RF bleachers
Janish ends the season with above average offense by a SS but won't be qualified because of lack of ABs (ok, that's not so bold)
Close on the second one. :D
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RedsManRick
The Reds
1. Janish OPSs .700+
2. Votto doesn't hit .300
3. Masset leads the team in saves
Rest of MLB
1. Rays have better record than Yankees
2. Texas barely clears .500
3. Adam Dunn hits 50 HR
And in the 0/6 category, we have RMR!
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by
cincrazy
1. The Brewers and Cardinals are both derailed by injuries, poor defense, and the circus that becomes Fielder's and Pujols' contract situations.
2. The Reds win less games than last year, and still take the division before getting handled in the first round of the playoffs by a team with superior starting pitching.
3. The Phillies do NOT win the NL East. Their age and injuries keep them from being the regular season juggernaut most expect, and the "Four Aces" theory goes out the window when Oswalt and Lee have back trouble and prove to be human.
I spent the majority of this thread making fun of the rest of you. Then I stumbled upon this.
Whoops.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
Don't feel bad, in a thread like this you're bound to look sour later. We can't all be:
http://images.billoreilly.com/images...58_H_SW350.jpg
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by
medford
1) Bruce jumps out to a hot start, and makes the All Star team. Slows a bit as the season wears on, but still tops 35 homers and a .900 OPS.
2) Aroldis Chapman hits 107 on a juiced up scoreboard radar reading sometime in June or July. A segment of "The art of the game" with Chris Welsh is lated taped where Arolids explains his technique. Chris Carpentar's son is forced to watch.
3) Pujols is traded to the Yankees in by the trading deadline.
1) not exactly true, but he did get the all star bid, 35 homers is w/n range, don't know about the OPS, haven't paid much attention lately, I assume he's not going to make that mark.
2) If a tree falls in the forest and no one is around, does Chris Carpenter complain about the lack of living space for squirrels, birds and his SS's glove selection?
3) 0.5 out of 3 puts me on par with Adam Dunn this season :)
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Homer Bailey
1. Jay Bruce hits 42 home runs
2. Juan Francisco hits more home runs than Scott Rolen
3. No Reds starter wins more than 14 games.
1. Not quite. 42? Really? I said that? And I preached about having reasonable expectations for the kid? Shame on me.
2. Get hot Juan! (Last night's homer should count as 2 though).
3. Easy money there.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Caveat Emperor
1.) Sam LeCure + Matt Maloney combine for 30 starts.
2.) Drew Stubbs struggles the entire season at the plate and hits under .230.
3.) Devin Mesoraco is the team's everyday catcher, spelled ocassionally by Hanigan, by seasons' end, and Yonder Alonso is the team's starting LF.
1.) Nope -- though Volquez and Wood both tanked, the starts fell to Willis and Leake
2.) Drew Stubbs is at .249 -- he could come close if he went into a huge tailspin, but I think even he's safe from this one.
3.) Whiff on this one as well.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
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Originally Posted by
membengal
Bruce leaps to 40-HR level, OPS of 1.000 and finishes second in MVP voting.
Gomes defies most of us and turns in a season worthy of starting most of the time, OPSing about .835 and hitting 27 HR.
Sam Lecure, not Mike Leake, is the one who solidifies the rotation in August when one Volquez implodes for the last time and is demoted to the bullpen.
No, no, and no,
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
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Originally Posted by
RedsManRick
And in the 0/6 category, we have RMR!
LOL. :clap: :clap: Give the man a hand folks! :O) :p
Btw...don't feel too bad. Look at my sig. LOL.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by
_Sir_Charles_
LOL. :clap: :clap: Give the man a hand folks! :O) :p
Btw...don't feel too bad. Look at my sig. LOL.
I did predict Arizona would win the NL West, so I guess this blind squirrel found at least one nut.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
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Originally Posted by
mth123
1. Juan Francisco gets 300 ABs with 15 HR and an OPS above .800 solidifying the offense and offsetting the drop from Rolen.
2. Paul Janish fails to OPS above .600 and is replaced by Zach Cozart mid season who hits 8 HR and steals 10 bases with an OPS above .750 in the second half with no noticable drop-off defensively.
3. With an eye toward spending his golden years with his family, Walt Jocketty announces his resignation effective at the end of 2011 and Bill Bavasi is named as his replacement.
No because of injury. Yes on Janish and no to Cozart because of injury.
Still TBD on Jocketty.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by
RedsManRick
The Reds
1. Janish OPSs .700+
2. Votto doesn't hit .300
3. Masset leads the team in saves
Rest of MLB
1. Rays have better record than Yankees
2. Texas barely clears .500
3. Adam Dunn hits 50 HR
At least I was only 0-3.We're all pretty bad though.:laugh:
This should be done every year.If the Reds had actually been good many of the predictions would've come true so it's all their fault.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
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Originally Posted by
tixe
1. Performance of young players such as Brandon Belt, Bryce Harper, and Devin Mes will bring back memories of Space Jam's Monstars.
2. The rest of the division turns out to be really, really bad. Pirates quietly sneak into third place.
3. Oakland's Gio Gonzalez finishes top five in Cy Young.
Number one doesn't sound like anything I'd ever say. At best, I was a year early, but I think what really happened was that Anthony Wiener hacked my account.
I was close with #2, but then the expected collapse came and the Pirates ended up looking worse than ever, almost. McCutcheon's still one of my favorite non-Reds.
Gio might have made it if he hadn't had a recent bad spell. He was playing with the AL ERA lead for a while, I think, but has pitched poorly lately.
At least I missed in different ways than most. 'course on Twitter I picked Bruce and Dunn as MVP's.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Ron Madden
The Reds
Travis Wood will put up better numbers than anyone in the rotation.
Dusty will waste the offensive talent of Jay Bruce because he hits LH.
Rolen will appear in 121 games but will only start 96 games and hit 4th.
Joey Votto will suffer from lineup construction and go 287/347/507.
MLB
The Braves will battle the Phillies down to the wire and might beat'em.
The Boston Red Sox will win the most regular season games in 2011.
Adam Dunn will hit at least 35 HRs.
JMHO
It seems my crystal ball may have been Just A Bit Cloudy(or covered with dust) :laugh:
.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
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Originally Posted by
hebroncougar
1. The Yankees will miss the playoffs. (Pitching won't hold up)
2. Jay Bruce will hit more than 40 HR's.
3. The Phillies will miss the playoffs. (Utley breaks down further, and their lineup is way, way overrated).
I must have been drinking..........heavily.
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Re: 3 Bold Predictions for 2011
I had Heisey hitting 20 homers.
Not bad.