Official 2013 Day 1 Draft Thread

[mdccclxix]

My Doug informed new perspective:

1) McKinney
2) Denny
3) Chris Anderson
4) Judge
5) Ervin
6) Tim Anderson
7) Sandburg

If we get any 2 of these I'll be really happy.

[Edd Roush]

If he had a Myers bat, I'd imagine he would go earlier, no? Anyway, Law has had Denney to the Reds in his past three mocks, has to be something there.

Wil Myers himself was just a third round pick. I really hope there is fire to the Denney smoke.

[mdccclxix]

Wil Myers himself was just a third round pick. I really hope there is fire to the Denney smoke.

Yeah, I really like his swing in the video.

[Edd Roush]

I don't know much about this year's draft.

Based on my reading I hope the Reds take Marco Gonzalez or Tim Anderson. Gonzalez sounds to me like a lefty Mike Leake. He has a good pedigree. The Reds need lefty pitchers coming up. "High ceiling" is generally synonymous with velocity. This guy sounds like a pitcher more than a thrower, but that doesn't mean he can't be very good. If Anderson is available he sounds like a middle infielder or CF with a good bat and a very good athlete. Guys at those positions who hit are important.

Based on recent history, however, I'm expecting the Reds to take a projectable HS pitcher like Hunter Green, Hunter Harvey, Bickford, Clarkin, Kaminsky or Serrano.

I doubt they will go for a high school catcher. The Mesoraco experience shows how tough a grind that is. The college catcher, Ciuffo is a much better likelihood, if he is available. McKinney sounds a bit like Winker to me. I doubt they go for another corner outfielder in the first round.

So I'm hoping for Gonzalez or Anderson, but expecting a high school pitcher. College catcher Ciuffo would be someone else I can see them taking, if available.

If they don't take a HS pitcher in the first round, I'd expect it with their second pick.

Kc61, I just have a few things I would like to say in response to your post. First, Ciuffo is a high school catcher, just like McGuire and Denney. Sure, Mesoraco has taken a while to develop, but I think the Reds are pretty happy with the way that has turned out. Furthermore, Denney may not even see any time behind the dish if the Reds are as down on Denney's glove as 19braves77 is. Either way, if the Reds take either of those three, I would be happy with the Reds "delaying" their bats if they have a legitimate chance to stick behind the dish in the majors.

As for McKinney, I can't imagine the Reds doing anything but cartwheels if another Winker is on the board at #27. I like the scouting reports I have read on McKinney's bat. You can't concern yourself too much with the current make-up of the minor leagues or big league roster because prospect rankings and the big league roster itself is so fluid. Even if McKinney and Winker develop into monster bats and we still have Bruce in a corner outfield spot, I am sure we will find somewhere for all three bats to play and if we can't, it is a problem I am fine with having.

Sure, I wish McKinney played a more "premium" defensive position, but I would rather have a premium bat than a premium glove.

I have already stated my opinion of Gonzales in the other draft pick thread. I have no problem with it, but he seems to be falling out of the first round in the mocks I have seen so he could be there at #38.

I wouldn't mind a high upside high school arm, but I think I may prefer a bat. Either way, I hope the Reds go BPA unless the BPA has ridiculous bonus demands.

[Edd Roush]

Some outstanding links to Doug's work on this year's draft prospects. They are complete with video and hard to find stats, as well as info on if they've been linked to the Reds...Doug, why didn't you refer us earlier!?!?:

Nick Ciuffo – Catcher – Lexington High School (South Carolina)
Phillip Ervin – Outfield – Samford
Rob Kaminsky – Left Handed Pitcher – St. Joseph High Regional High School (New Jersey)
http://redsminorleagues.com/2013/05/...orts-part-one/

Jonathan Denney – Catcher – Yukon High School (Oklahoma)
Hunter Harvey – Right Handed Pitcher – Bandys High Schol (North Carolina)
Phil Bickford – Right Handed Pitcher – Oaks Christian High School (California)
Chris Anderson – Right Handed Pitcher – Jacksonville
Billy McKinney – Outfielder – Plano High School (Texas)
Marco Gonzales – Left Handed Pitcher – Gonzaga
Austin Wilson – Outfielder – Stanford
Aaron Judge – Outfielder – Fresno State
http://redsminorleagues.com/2013/05/...orts-part-two/

Hunter Green – Left Handed Pitcher – Warren East High School (Kentucky)
Matt Krook – Left Handed Pitcher – St. Ignatius High School (California)
Connor Jones – Right Handed Pitcher – Great Bridge High School (Virginia)
http://redsminorleagues.com/2013/05/...ts-part-three/

Tim Anderson - SS – East Central Junior College
Kyle Serrano – RHP – Farragut High School (Tennessee)
Bobby Wahl – RHP – Mississippi
Ryan Eades – Right Handed Pitcher – LSU
Oscar Mercado – Shortstop – Gaither High School (Florida)
http://redsminorleagues.com/2013/06/...rts-part-four/

Hunter Dozier – Shortstop – Stephen F. Austin State
Cord Sandberg – Outfield – Manatee High School (Florida)
Aaron Blair – Right Handed Pitcher – Marshall
Alex Balog – Right Handed Pitcher – San Francisco
Alex Gonzalez – Right Handed Pitcher – Oral Roberts
http://redsminorleagues.com/2013/06/...rts-part-five/

Devin Williams – Right Handed Pitcher – Hazelwood High School (Missouri)
Andrew Thurman – Right Handed Pitcher – UC Irvine
Tom Windle – Left Handed Pitcher – Minnesota
Corey Knebel – Right Handed Pitcher – Texas
http://redsminorleagues.com/2013/06/...orts-part-six/

Just to update what doug has on his website, the Reds have now been linked to Erwin. As Benihana said in post #4, BA has mocked Erwin to the Reds in their final mock. BTW, doug seems much higher on Erwin than Keith Law. I hope what doug has heard from scouts is correct, if we take him.

[redsmetz]

2012
Nick Travieso
RHP
Archbishop McCarthy High School, Fort Lauderdale

I've always thought it ironic that Travieso's school is named after someone who was born in Cincinnati and was first a bishop here before moving on to other diocese.

[dougdirt]

I got to say Doug, you are too modest when it comes to pushing your info out there. Thanks a ton for this stuff.

Some of those guys have since been linked to the Reds, but weren't at the time of writing.

As for me pushing my own stuff out there.... it is against the site rules.

[dougdirt]

Just to update what doug has on his website, the Reds have now been linked to Erwin. As Benihana said in post #4, BA has mocked Erwin to the Reds in their final mock. BTW, doug seems much higher on Erwin than Keith Law. I hope what doug has heard from scouts is correct, if we take him.

I talked to very few scouts about these guys. Hardly any of my contacts are the guys who scout high school/college talents. I simply used freely available video and scouting reports for the data.

[Edd Roush]

I talked to very few scouts about these guys. Hardly any of my contacts are the guys who scout high school/college talents. I simply used freely available video and scouting reports for the data.

Sorry for the misunderstanding, doug. I am making my way through your reports now and if this is in there, please disregard this question, but what is your wish list for pick #27 and/or #38?

[RedTeamGo!]

Doug: Final predictions for the Reds first and second pick tonight?

[mdccclxix]

Some of those guys have since been linked to the Reds, but weren't at the time of writing.

As for me pushing my own stuff out there.... it is against the site rules.

I do understand that, although there has to be a point where the info is available nowhere else and it becomes a service to the site. I mean, we all know you're not a spammer. And guilty me, I didn't check your site sooner, perhaps many others did. I don't know, the collection is so thorough and Reds related, maybe there should be a site promotion sticky so people like me don't miss this good stuff.

[Edd Roush]

Doug, Austin Wilson question for you:

You say: "He has some concerns with his pitch recognition," but to me, it appears he has had a pretty solid walk rate the last couple years. Is that because he has not seen to many tough breaking balls yet, which is why pitch recognition concerns do not appear in his college numbers or what else makes up the concerns with his pitch recognition ability.

I ask, because I am very interested in Austin Wilson at #27.

[dougdirt]

Doug, Austin Wilson question for you:

You say: "He has some concerns with his pitch recognition," but to me, it appears he has had a pretty solid walk rate the last couple years. Is that because he has not seen to many tough breaking balls yet, which is why pitch recognition concerns do not appear in his college numbers or what else makes up the concerns with his pitch recognition ability.

I ask, because I am very interested in Austin Wilson at #27.

I was just passing along what I have heard. I haven't seen him nearly enough to answer that question and as I noted, I don't really have many contacts that are still scouting the high school/college ranks so I can't reach out for information on that either.

[dougdirt]

Sorry for the misunderstanding, doug. I am making my way through your reports now and if this is in there, please disregard this question, but what is your wish list for pick #27 and/or #38?

As always, you don't always know all of the reports on everyone. Last year, I had never even looked at Nick Travieso as a potential Reds pick because of where he was ranked. Then after they drafted him I started seeing the scouting reports and was confused as to how he was ranked so low. So there could always be someone who sneaks in that I didn't see or that our guys saw something that others didn't and I believe our guys are plenty trustable on what they are seeing given their track record of success.

In no order, I am a big fan of these guys: Phil Ervin, Tim Anderson, Billy McKinney, Hunter Green, Hunter Harvey, Kyle Serrano, Chris Anderson and Alex Balog.

Guys I wouldn't mind being picked, but aren't likely the first choice: Austin Wilson, Aaron Blair, Bobby Wahl, Marco Gonazles, Jon Denney and Nick Ciuffo.

Guy I wasn't impressed with at all: Oscar Mercado.

[PuffyPig]

I'm going to be a bit nit picky:

While I agree Buckley and Walt have an EXCELLENT track record, I think it's a bit premature if not misleading to be saying that they "nailed" the Alonso pick. A 1B with a career OPS below .756 is not all that great for a Top 10 pick.

(Cue the "if they make the majors it's a success" chatter)

It's at least arguable that since we were able to trade Alonso and get great value for him (the Pads traded Rizzo once they got Alonso, so you know they valued Alonso highly) in a trade for Matt Latos, that "our book" is closed on Alonso regardless of what he does from here on out and, accordingly, the pick was "nailed".