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Thread: Phil Ervin

  1. #406
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    There's a reason his balls are turned into outs more than average. He pulls everything and he's a fly ball hitter. He also has a higher than normal rate of infield flies. Always has.

    He's got to change at least one aspect of that if he's going to get a more normal BABIP.
    I did not know the info on him being a flyball pull hitter, that explains a lot. The need for a change was roughly the point I was trying to make, he has to make a change to get better contact, but I would bet on a guy being able to make that kind of change over someone still trying to figure out plate discipline and pitch recognition.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.


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  3. #407
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    I did not know the info on him being a flyball pull hitter, that explains a lot. The need for a change was roughly the point I was trying to make, he has to make a change to get better contact, but I would bet on a guy being able to make that kind of change over someone still trying to figure out plate discipline and pitch recognition.
    Whenever I see a good K/BB rate but low BABIP, I suspect a high fly ball/pop up rate. Good batting eye, sufficient contact, but an upper cut or other flaw that leads to pop ups.

    They need to work on his swing to promote more line drives.

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  5. #408
    Member Z-Fly's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    If I didn't know any better, I'd say he is trying to blow everything out.
    WHEN DOES IT STOP!?!?

  6. #409
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Whenever I see a good K/BB rate but low BABIP, I suspect a high fly ball/pop up rate. Good batting eye, sufficient contact, but an upper cut or other flaw that leads to pop ups.

    They need to work on his swing to promote more line drives.
    Seems like a safe assumption to make. I am spoiled by the batted ball profile stats for the major leaguers.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  7. #410
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    “I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”

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  9. #411
    Prognosis...Negative StRedlegs900's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Good article...read this last night. If Ervin really does "break out" (which I guess means do everything he's already done, but raise his BA by 50 points or so?) like many think, just how much does that change the landscape for the Reds?

    Do we think he and Winker will even get a chance to show what they can do at the highest level, if Duvall and Schebler are having simply mediocre years? Will management stick with Duvall longer because he was a first half All-Star last year? I like Schebler's potential more than Duvall's, but having two corner outfielders (Winker and Ervin) who can potentially get on base at a .360 clip or above would be a huge deal for this team.

  10. #412
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by StRedlegs900 View Post
    Good article...read this last night. If Ervin really does "break out" (which I guess means do everything he's already done, but raise his BA by 50 points or so?) like many think, just how much does that change the landscape for the Reds?

    Do we think he and Winker will even get a chance to show what they can do at the highest level, if Duvall and Schebler are having simply mediocre years? Will management stick with Duvall longer because he was a first half All-Star last year? I like Schebler's potential more than Duvall's, but having two corner outfielders (Winker and Ervin) who can potentially get on base at a .360 clip or above would be a huge deal for this team.
    If Ervin broke out and raised his BA while maintaining that OBP/SLG that would be a huge boom for the future of the franchise. You are basically getting a near MLB ready borderline All-Star bat. Think of adding Dexter Fowler at a corner OF spot to your team.

    I think if Winker and/or Ervin have great years at AAA Winker will get the first shot if Duvall/Schebler struggle or are just mediocre.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  11. #413
    Prognosis...Negative StRedlegs900's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    If Ervin broke out and raised his BA while maintaining that OBP/SLG that would be a huge boom for the future of the franchise. You are basically getting a near MLB ready borderline All-Star bat. Think of adding Dexter Fowler at a corner OF spot to your team.

    I think if Winker and/or Ervin have great years at AAA Winker will get the first shot if Duvall/Schebler struggle or are just mediocre.
    I agree that Winker will definitely get the first shot, but it'll certainly be interesting to see how much rope is given to Duvall and Schebler if both of those guys are performing in AAA.

    Obviously our corner outfielders right now have more power potential, but Winker and Ervin theoretically have more potential for getting on base consistently. If a guy like Scheb can combine both, then you're probably talking about one of the best bats in the league - so you don't fool with that. If not, however, we might learn something about whether management values power or OBP potential more.

    Should be fun to watch, and I hope those guys force the issue down at Louisville.

  12. #414
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by StRedlegs900 View Post
    Good article...read this last night. If Ervin really does "break out" (which I guess means do everything he's already done, but raise his BA by 50 points or so?)...
    After four years, a prospective hitter with holes in his swing is pretty much going to be that guy going forward.

    Sure, there are limited examples littered across hundreds of thousands of individual minor league seasons, but they're as rare as hen's teeth.

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  14. #415
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    On the surface Ervin has disappointed but he played in a tough league for hitters last year and ranked alright comparably speaking to his leaguemates.

    Not expecting him to breakout, but it wouldn't be shocking.

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  16. #416
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    On the surface Ervin has disappointed but he played in a tough league for hitters last year and ranked alright comparably speaking to his leaguemates.

    Not expecting him to breakout, but it wouldn't be shocking.
    The league itself wasn't tough. The home park, however, played a bit pitcher friendly thanks to the much deeper fences in 2016. He had enormous home/road splits.

  17. #417
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    Quote Originally Posted by StRedlegs900 View Post
    Good article...read this last night. If Ervin really does "break out" (which I guess means do everything he's already done, but raise his BA by 50 points or so?) like many think, just how much does that change the landscape for the Reds?

    Do we think he and Winker will even get a chance to show what they can do at the highest level, if Duvall and Schebler are having simply mediocre years? Will management stick with Duvall longer because he was a first half All-Star last year? I like Schebler's potential more than Duvall's, but having two corner outfielders (Winker and Ervin) who can potentially get on base at a .360 clip or above would be a huge deal for this team.
    I'd say two of Kivlehan, Walker Raburn and Jennings will make the OD roster. If Ervin were to break out, I could see he and Winker grabbing them by the break. IMO, it would also free up one or even two of Duvall, Schebler and even Suarez for a deal if Senzel and Aquino were to come on strong as well.

  18. #418
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    Re: Phil Ervin

    What I have seen consistently from Ervin is a tendency to overswing in an effort to pull the ball 400+ ft -- as noted throughout this thread. To me, the bat speed looks excellent. He's got to learn to moderate his approach (i.e., make some adjustments), at least with 2 strikes. I remain cautiously optimistic, given his tools, but more development is needed.


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