Promotion Watch

[Benihana]

Going to try something new here that I would suggest be stickied. During the course of the minor league season, many - myself included - frequently clamor for and question when certain prospects should be promoted to the next level. I thought we could keep an active thread for speculation on such topics.

Two weeks into the regular season, here are my top candidates that should be considered for the earliest promotions of the year (but likely not until a month from now, and only if they keep up their strong starts):

1. RHP Ben Lively to Pensacola - should've started there in the first place, and his performance has justified that notion. I'd give him 2-3 more starts in Bakersfield, and then give him the nod if he keeps it up.
2. LHP Ismael Guillon to Bakersfield - he's shown he's finally mastered Dayton after almost 3 years. He's ready to be challenged in Bakersfield.
3. CF Junior Arias to Pensacola - great start to the year, could play alongside his fellow 2008 signees Yorman and Duran in a talented Pensacola OF. Could open up the Bakersfield CF for Ervin.
4. OF Kyle Waldrop to Pensacola - needs more time to show it, but has also started strong.
5. OF Jesse Winker to Pensacola - could be the hitting equivalent of Lively aka the fast-mover of 2014. His promotion could bump Yorman to Louisville, once he shows he's ready of course.

Things I wanted to see but have seen no evidence for yet:

1. OF Phil Ervin to Bakersfield - hasn't started all that hot, despite starting at a level I thought might be conservative for him.
2. C Jose Ortiz to Dayton - Wish he would've started there in the first place, but maybe if the Reds draft a college catcher in the top 5 rounds it will spur them to bump Ortiz to Dayton in order to make room for that catcher in Billings.
3. OF Yorman Rodriguez to Louisville - first HR of the season but still hitting under the mendoza line. As is the case with Ervin to Bakersfield, this move could likely happen if/when the last of the Bakersfield OF is promoted to Pensacola, and might not happen at all if Yorman doesn't hit.

[mace]

I'm not a rush-to-promote guy, but any such list, for me, would include

* Sebastian Elizalde, who has Mexican League experience and has, early on, shown a professionalism that suggests a higher level than Dayton;

* Layne Somsen, who got a late start (drafted last year out of South Dakota State at 23), but has pitched dominantly at Billings last year and now Dayton;

* and Donald Lutz, whose resume includes Cincinnati but lacks Louisville.

Of those listed in the OP, I agree most with Guillon, although I certainly don't mind him refining his control before he moves on. And Lively obviously looks like a fast-riser.

[PepperJack]

I'm not a rush-to-promote guy, but any such list, for me, would include

* Sebastian Elizalde, who has Mexican League experience and has, early on, shown a professionalism that suggests a higher level than Dayton;

* Layne Somsen, who got a late start (drafted last year out of South Dakota State at 23), but has pitched dominantly at Billings last year and now Dayton;

* and Donald Lutz, whose resume includes Cincinnati but lacks Louisville.

Of those listed in the OP, I agree most with Guillon, although I certainly don't mind him refining his control before he moves on. And Lively obviously looks like a fast-riser.

I agree about Elizalde, he seems to be a man among kids in Low-A.

As for Lutz, I just think he needs to keep showing he can have success in Double A, something he has yet to do before now.

[PepperJack]

Going to try something new here that I would suggest be stickied. During the course of the minor league season, many - myself included - frequently clamor for and question when certain prospects should be promoted to the next level. I thought we could keep an active thread for speculation on such topics.

Two weeks into the regular season, here are my top candidates that should be considered for the earliest promotions of the year (but likely not until a month from now, and only if they keep up their strong starts):

1. RHP Ben Lively to Pensacola - should've started there in the first place, and his performance has justified that notion. I'd give him 2-3 more starts in Bakersfield, and then give him the nod if he keeps it up.
2. LHP Ismael Guillon to Bakersfield - he's shown he's finally mastered Dayton after almost 3 years. He's ready to be challenged in Bakersfield.
3. CF Junior Arias to Pensacola - great start to the year, could play alongside his fellow 2008 signees Yorman and Duran in a talented Pensacola OF. Could open up the Bakersfield CF for Ervin.
4. OF Kyle Waldrop to Pensacola - needs more time to show it, but has also started strong.
5. OF Jesse Winker to Pensacola - could be the hitting equivalent of Lively aka the fast-mover of 2014. His promotion could bump Yorman to Louisville, once he shows he's ready of course.

Things I wanted to see but have seen no evidence for yet:

1. OF Phil Ervin to Bakersfield - hasn't started all that hot, despite starting at a level I thought might be conservative for him.
2. C Jose Ortiz to Dayton - Wish he would've started there in the first place, but maybe if the Reds draft a college catcher in the top 5 rounds it will spur them to bump Ortiz to Dayton in order to make room for that catcher in Billings.
3. OF Yorman Rodriguez to Louisville - first HR of the season but still hitting under the mendoza line. As is the case with Ervin to Bakersfield, this move could likely happen if/when the last of the Bakersfield OF is promoted to Pensacola, and might not happen at all if Yorman doesn't hit.

Lively is likely on the Cingrani path, which would leave him in Bakersfield for a while. Maybe a second half promotion, if keeps dominating.

Guillon could be a candidate to skip Bakersfield, and see Pensacola either in the second half, or start there in 2015.

Guys like Arias and Waldrop need success at the levels they are at, and with neither being on the 40 man, there is little pressure to rush them.

I too, would look for Winker to be a quick mover, if he performs. He is at the age Bruce saw three levels, and he could see at least two if he tears up Bakersfield for the first half.

[dougdirt]

Who are you kicking out of the Pensacola rotation for Lively? Or are you promoting someone and if so, who? Who takes his place in Bakersfield? Dayton is already short on starting pitching as it is. I see that you mentioned Guillon, but I really wish people would stop saying he has been there for nearly three years. He has made 33 starts there with 27 of them coming in one season. He has spent roughly one year and five weeks in Dayton in terms of actual playing time.

You essentially want to promote the entire Bakersfield outfield to Pensacola, which already has four outfielders there who all need and deserve playing time and only one of whom probably deserves a shot in Triple-A at this point (Smith), though I wouldn't be bothered if Lutz also moved up, I just don't think he has shown enough at this point that it is something that says "he has mastered Double-A" either.

Making moves isn't always just about the one guy. There are guys in front of and behind them on the ladder that come into play as well.

[RED VAN HOT]

I suspect that much effort went into initial rosters and that some players were blocked from levels that they might have handled well. That's kind of a nice problem to have. Elizalde and Somsen are the best examples to me. Except for promotions to back fill DL'd spots, I doubt that there will be any significant roster changes until after the June draft. It makes sense to sort it out then.

I'd add Silverio to the list. He is blocked by vets at Louisville who are hitting well.

Among those mentioned the strike zone disciplines of Elizalde, Winker and Mejias-Brean are excellent and bode well for early promotions.

[Benihana]

To be clear, in the original post, I wasn't stating anyone should be promoted immediately, or even anytime this month.

I think that it is unlikely that anyone would be promoted until May.

That said, I think both Lively and Guillon could be ready by then if they keep this up. None of the others should be considered to switch levels until Memorial Day at the earliest.

Is Carlos Contreras going to be used as a starter or not?

[dougdirt]

Is Carlos Contreras going to be used as a starter or not?

He is starting tonight.

[RED VAN HOT]

He is starting tonight.

Also, his first appearance was the night Latos started, so he might be on regular rotation beginning with that game.

[RedTeamGo!]

I keep thinking of this every time I see the thread title.

"He will literally rip your face off"

[HokieRed]

I'd add in Chacin to Bakersfield.

[Kc61]

Here are the two most important promotion candidates IMO. Not for this minute, but maybe soon.

Chris Nelson and Jumbo Diaz.

If they keep doing well at AAA they can help the Reds.

[krm1580]

I think the guy most likely to be promoted is Donald Lutz. Louisville is a bunch of 30+ year old 4A guys, so its not like he will be taking time away from a legitimate contributor and he is mashing in Pensacola so far. Frankly I am surprised he did not start the season in Louisville since he spent so much time with the big club last year.

[dougdirt]

I think the guy most likely to be promoted is Donald Lutz. Louisville is a bunch of 30+ year old 4A guys, so its not like he will be taking time away from a legitimate contributor and he is mashing in Pensacola so far. Frankly I am surprised he did not start the season in Louisville since he spent so much time with the big club last year.

.254 .328 .437

That is his career line in AA, including his hot start, so it was worse than that coming into the year. It shouldn't be that big of a surprise that he is back there.

[Z-Fly]

.254 .328 .437

That is his career line in AA, including his hot start, so it was worse than that coming into the year. It shouldn't be that big of a surprise that he is back there.

Why did he spend any time at the big leagues then? Was that a Dusty Baker thing?