He plays in a bandbox ballpark. 13 home runs at home. 5 on the road. Same number of innings. It's the ballpark. It's always been the ballpark.Originally Posted by RedTeamGo!
Last night it may have been the wind, though not on the HR. Even with the wind, that thing was crushed. The extra base hits though? The triple allowed was a single turned into a triple on a dive that missed. The wind was blowing out, hard.
Assuming the Reds were going to get the same value for both players, I'd rather hang onto Stephenson.
If there's one thing I've learned following minor league pitchers, one bad season is no reason to discount a pitcher with tools. Quite a few prospects, including Homer Bailey and Shelby Miller, have had inexplicably awful seasons coming up that ended up being blips on the radar. Let me know when Stephenson's fastball starts to sit below 90 or he stone forgets how to throw a curve before I get concerned.
As for "sure things", there never are any in prospect evaluations. We talk about high floors, but that's never a guarantee; seemingly surefire MLB starters peter out at AAA or completely lose their seemingly perfect command. The most important thing with evaluating any struggling prospect, IMO, is that the attributes that got them on the list are still visible.
Cedric (04-22-2015),mth123 (04-21-2015),nmculbreth (04-21-2015),OGB (04-23-2015),Tom Servo (04-21-2015)
As usual Doug is right regarding Stephenson and the need for patience. Dig up the old Homer Bailey threads and there will be a few that panicked way too soon. You have to be careful analyzing every single thing with young power pitchers, they need patience and there are so many variables at the minor league level that you really need to focus on a simple few things.
It's almost universal that you see command problems for young power pitchers and usually they work that out as they advance and some of the minor league variables go away. Just go and look at BB/9 rates from Harvey all the way back to Randy Johnson and get back to me.
This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.
Trust your brain over your gut on everything then
At this point Stephenson is a much, much better prospect than Lorenzon and nothing in their careers up to this point make it even close. That's unless you discount the most important peripherals and go with the polished, lower ceiling player. Stephenson has a ceiling that makes his value sky high compared to Lorenzon.
This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.
OGB (04-23-2015)
I'm not suggesting it, but what currenct major leaguer/prospects would you be happy to see back if Stephenson was traded?
I'm not suggesting it, but what currenct major leaguer/prospects would you be happy to see back if Stephenson was traded?
It's not even a close call in my book. Lorenzen > Stephenson.
No, no he's not. Lorenzen is pitching well at AAA -- less than two years removed from the draft (albeit he was a college player) -- and Stephenson is still struggling at the AA level. Where are you getting that Stephenson is a much better prospect? From those lists that national writers put out? Stephenson is the equivalent of a "5-tool" OF who strikes out way too much, can't get on base and takes too many dumb chances in the field. Jim Bowden loves those kind of guys.
Give me someone with good (not great) stuff and excellent command like Lorenzen ANY DAY over someone with very poor command but great stuff like Stephenson. Stephenson has the high ceiling, but I bet he never reaches it or even close due to his well-documented control issues. Lorenzen's numbers speak for themselves. Stephenson has always gotten by off hype. Judging by his numbers, no way he is a top 50 prospect in MLB.
4 walks and 16 strikeouts isn't struggling.
Here's the thing Chuckie - Stephenson has had control issues once in his career. In 2014. Look at his control in 2013. It was very, very good.
And prospects aren't ranked by numbers. Nor should they be. Numbers don't translate. Skills do.
Stephenson has a ton more value than Lorenzon. How are you debating that?
This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.
I don't mean to insult you but you obviously don't understand how minor league players are projected and valued.
Sorry for somehow double posting instead of editing first post btw.
This is the time. The real Reds organization is back.
Did he not have control issues toward the end of 2013? I went to the last game he pitched in 2013 and I remember him seeming to "lose it" several times during the game. I even remember posting that on a thread (during the game) and you (Dougdirt) commenting about him having some issues with control.
Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.
Yes, for the last few starts of 2013 he had some control issues. Still, he had 35 walks ad 136 strikeouts in 2013.
I think Stephenson's problem is that he just set the bar too high prior to 2014. The expectations are through the roof and while I'd love to see any of his struggles minimized, you have to let things shake out some more. When he gets to 10 starts or something, then there will be a lot more data to work with.
REDREAD (04-23-2015)
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