I'd love for you to point out where some ripped you for saying "WORST CASE SCENARIO is that he's an elite reliever".Originally Posted by RedTeamGo!
There's a big difference between saying that's the worst case scenario, and what you probably said and got ripped for. But, I'll concede I'm wrong if you used the terms worst case scenario and someone with more than 10 posts ripped on you for it.
Not to be a jerk, but this is pretty self-evident. All guys with superior arm talent are candidates for back of the bullpen if they washout as a starter.
If I remember correctly, you said Stephenson was headed to the pen, or something to that effect. Very different from saying the worst case scenario, he's an elite reliever.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
I would give Stephenson this year and next to show he is starter material. If not he is the in-house natural replacement for Chapman. Lorenzen & Iglesias can be starters. Bailey, Disco, Lorenzen and Iglesias is a pretty good 1-4.
I know what you mean. I said at one point that we could fairly expect Winker to be the full time LFer for the Reds, Opening Day 2017. That comment - that it would take two more years for him to lock down a starting MLB position - was not met kindly around here.
Now I read that the worst case scenario for Stephenson is an "elite" reliever. His floor is elite. One poster says he is Chapman's replacement. Mariano Rivera step aside, we have this prospect.
All this hype and the young pitcher is just at AA.
Just pile on the talent and let them all develop. Things will sort themselves out. Stephenson's got great ability, let's just follow him and see where it goes. Probably the best thing for him would be reduced expectations so he can just do his work and probably succeed.
Last edited by Kc61; 04-26-2015 at 09:45 PM.
Call me crazy but I thought Doug called Stephenson's floor an "elite" or "great" reliever last year and I took exception to it. Hopefully not a "rip" but I would take issue with that. Aside from the fact that everyone's floor is never making the big leagues, to classify Stephenson as "at worst" an elite reliever with his now over-a-year command issues is ill-advised. If he doesn't improve on his control, he will be elite or good at nothing.
He is still a top prospect with awesome raw talent. But improvements must be made.
Last edited by kaldaniels; 04-26-2015 at 10:09 PM.
kal, Aroldis Chapman seems to be doing ok with control problems.... and you can be a step or two down from him and still be an elite reliever.
With his control warts, Chapman still is easily a sub-1 WHIP pitcher the past 2-3 years. Plus he is an alien.
Stephenson is a 1.38 WHIP guy in AA ball since his control issues started over a year ago.
To me it's simple, if he doesn't get his control fixed, he is pretty much done as a viable player. I'm not saying he probably won't fix it...just saying his floor is not an elite reliever. Walking 4-5 guys per 9 innings is not good.
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
WHIP
Who is an elite reliever right now who comps similar to Stephenson in those metrics?
2014 Trevor Rosenthal (not elite last year) was close but he had a HR rate of like .14/9 IP.
Aroldis Chapman was a 1.35 WHIP guy in AAA in his age 22 season with 5 walks per 9. And he was not the guy we know today for most of that season either. He wasn't the 100+ MPH guy until very late that season.
Don't get me wrong - 4 walks per 9 isn't good. But some guys can still be elite relievers with that kind of walk rate. Of course, starters that become relievers tend to lower their walk rates and raise their strikeout rates for multitudes of reasons.
I want to see it drop, it needs to drop. It's early - but we're seeing a lower walk rate this year (but one that still needs to be lower).
Agree with everything here. But don't agree with the premise that Stephenson is at floor, an elite reliever. Chapman figuring it out/improving after those AAA numbers does not lead to the conclusion that Stephenson will (for me). "Elite" anything is an aggressive projection, especially for someone with the struggles of Robert. You think otherwise, fair enough. But when I read people saying that, I am bound to chirp in.
K-Rod as a starter in the minors had similar HR and BB problems. He stopped giving up HRs when they moved him to the pen, but the control problems were there well into his first 5 seasons in the majors, during which he was still dominant despite that.
K-Rods metrics were all better than Stephenson, especially HR and WHIP. Again his narrative of improving in the Majors does not mean Stephenson will. Stephenson can improve, but I have his floor lower because it is not a sure thing at all.
??? Not being snarky, but did you read my post? In his first 3 years in the minors, K-Rod was a starter, and his numbers were similar. K-rate, BB-rate, HRs, WHIP, all of them (I guess the HRs were a little better, the WHIP a little worse). When they moved him to the bullpen, he stopped giving up the HRs, but his control problems continued well into him major-league career, yet he was dominant despite them.
Not being snarky either but you didn't answer my question. Just pointed out a guy who Stephenson could turn into. I asked for a guy who comps right now...not comped in the minors.
Point being - if none of Stephenson's metrics improve, I don't see him being an elite reliever, do you? How certain are you they will improve?
Last edited by kaldaniels; 04-27-2015 at 10:52 AM.
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