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Thread: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract

  1. #76
    Member Larkin88's Avatar
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    Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Ya, way man. The Porcello contract is also a bad one, and an outlier.
    With respect to your point, can you quantify how you arrived at the "two times his market rate" figure?

    His AAV is $17.5 million. Qualifying offers are $15.3 million these days. In your view, Homer's contract should have paid him less than $9 million per season?

    Or are you arguing that the guarantee of years was above and beyond... looking at "total contract value" or something like that?

    Quote Originally Posted by Chuckie
    The worst thing they could have done was pay market value for Bailey when he wasn't even a free agent. Yet, that's exactly what they did. And I think it was mostly because of those two no-nos. JMO.
    Yep, this I agree with. It was ill-advised to pay market value on Homer when the Reds did, the way that the Reds did it. I just take issue with the people who claim he was insanely overpaid above and beyond what the market is currently bearing.

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  3. #77
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    Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract

    Quote Originally Posted by Chuckie View Post
    The Reds will never admit it, but no way Bailey gets that contract without the two no-hitters. Those two games changed opinions about Bailey within the organization IMO.

    If Bailey wanted to sign a lucrative long-term contract a full year before he was eligible to be a free agent, the Reds should have negotiated a better deal. The Reds had the leverage, yet they paid Bailey like he was a free agent and they were bidding against other teams. If Bailey wasn't willing to take somewhat of a hometown discount in exchange for long-term security, then the Reds should have let it play out. They still could have signed him during the 2014 season or after the 2014 season. Or they could have made him a QO and received a draft pick in exchange if he declined.

    The worst thing they could have done was pay market value for Bailey when he wasn't even a free agent. Yet, that's exactly what they did. And I think it was mostly because of those two no-nos. JMO.

    Reds need to pay close attention to what the Pirates have been doing. When they sign their own players before they are free agents, they ALWAYS get a hometown discount. Look at McCutchen's contract for an example.
    I think it is absolute nonsense the any team would make a 100 million dollar decision off of two starts. The Reds did what they did because if Homer went out and had the 2014 everyone expected him to have it would have cost them another 25 to 30 million. They took a gamble and obviously because of health it has backfired but based on what we knew at the time Redszone loved that extension. It is so funny to go back and read the thread about the extension and then read people talk about it now. All of a sudden half the board hated that contract even though it was pretty universally liked at the time.

    As far as the Reds needing to adopt the Pirates model, the Reds have done some deals similar to the McCutchen deal that have really worked out. The Reds are paying Johnny Cueto 10 million this year.

  4. #78
    Flash the leather! _Sir_Charles_'s Avatar
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    Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract

    I totally disagree with the idea that he's overpaid according to the market.

    Now if you want to discuss if ballplayers in general are overpaid...I'm right there with you on that one. I'd rather we see teachers making 6 and 7 figure salaries and not guys who play a game for a living.

    Sorry, I digress. :O)

  5. #79
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract

    Quote Originally Posted by Chuckie View Post
    Reds need to pay close attention to what the Pirates have been doing. When they sign their own players before they are free agents, they ALWAYS get a hometown discount. Look at McCutchen's contract for an example.
    Worth noting that McCutchen had a 11.3 WAR in his first 3 seasons (09-11) with Pittsburgh, signed the extension before the 2012 season, and then put up a 21.4 WAR over the next three seasons (12-14). It was a great move by Pittsburgh to sign him when they did, but they weren't paying for an MVP candidate when they signed him.
    I dont care, Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. Hes in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.

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    Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract

    Quote Originally Posted by Larkin88 View Post
    With respect to your point, can you quantify how you arrived at the "two times his market rate" figure?

    His AAV is $17.5 million. Qualifying offers are $15.3 million these days. In your view, Homer's contract should have paid him less than $9 million per season?

    Or are you arguing that the guarantee of years was above and beyond... looking at "total contract value" or something like that?
    You clearly havent read the thread explaining the infallible free agency predicting toy.

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...ree+agent+tool

    And they let you post in the ORG?

    Do the mods know you haven't read that thread?
    "This isnt stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  7. #81
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    Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract

    Quote Originally Posted by kbrake View Post
    ..... It is so funny to go back and read the thread about the extension and then read people talk about it now. All of a sudden half the board hated that contract even though it was pretty universally liked at the time.

    As far as the Reds needing to adopt the Pirates model, the Reds have done some deals similar to the McCutchen deal that have really worked out. The Reds are paying Johnny Cueto 10 million this year.
    I think most people thought they were stepping up and going to have money for Cueto, Latos, a bullpen...a bench. I think we trusted Walt knew not to spend all of the money on Bailey. Obviously we were wrong. If Walt had stated that they had maxed out their credit card to sign Bailey and wouldn't have the money to sign Cueto/Latos/Leake and wouldn't have the money to add talent to the bullpen if needed you would have seen a different reaction.
    Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
    I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.

  8. #82
    Member Larkin88's Avatar
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    Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    You clearly havent read the thread explaining the infallible free agency predicting toy.

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showt...ree+agent+tool
    Oh this again. Joy.

  9. #83
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract

    Quote Originally Posted by paulrichjr View Post
    I think most people thought they were stepping up and going to have money for Cueto, Latos, a bullpen...a bench. I think we trusted Walt knew not to spend all of the money on Bailey. Obviously we were wrong. If Walt had stated that they had maxed out their credit card to sign Bailey and wouldn't have the money to sign Cueto/Latos/Leake and wouldn't have the money to add talent to the bullpen if needed you would have seen a different reaction.
    Anybody who thought Cueto, Latos, and Leake were all going to get paid after Homer's contract was announced was kidding themselves. And Homer's contract didn't max out anything.

    Flipping one of Bailey/Latos and resigning the other was the right move, letting Leake walk if he expects $13 million plus a season would be the right move, and not signing Johnny Cueto to a $200 million jumbo contract would also be the right move.
    I dont care, Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. Hes in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.

  10. #84
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    Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract

    Quote Originally Posted by kbrake View Post
    I think it is absolute nonsense the any team would make a 100 million dollar decision off of two starts. The Reds did what they did because if Homer went out and had the 2014 everyone expected him to have it would have cost them another 25 to 30 million. They took a gamble and obviously because of health it has backfired but based on what we knew at the time Redszone loved that extension. It is so funny to go back and read the thread about the extension and then read people talk about it now. All of a sudden half the board hated that contract even though it was pretty universally liked at the time.

    As far as the Reds needing to adopt the Pirates model, the Reds have done some deals similar to the McCutchen deal that have really worked out. The Reds are paying Johnny Cueto 10 million this year.
    You can think it's "absolute nonsense" ... that's fine. As I said, it's just my opinion, but I would bet big that Homer doesn't get that contract without the two no-nos. We'll never know for sure, so safe to say we can agree to disagree on this one. I'm not going to change my mind and you aren't going to change yours. All good.

    Oh, and one more thing: You said in your second-to-last sentence that the Reds have done similar "deals" (plural). Other than Cueto, what deals are you referring to?

  11. #85
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    Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    Worth noting that McCutchen had a 11.3 WAR in his first 3 seasons (09-11) with Pittsburgh, signed the extension before the 2012 season, and then put up a 21.4 WAR over the next three seasons (12-14). It was a great move by Pittsburgh to sign him when they did, but they weren't paying for an MVP candidate when they signed him.
    That's just one example Tom. Overall as an organization, they do a great job of team-friendly contracts. You'll notice they have exactly zero long-term contracts that will cripple them going forward. They do an excellent job of studying sabermetrics and they have a knack for finding quality starting pitching on the cheap (relatively speaking). Meanwhile, the Reds fill out their rotation by signing washed-up non-roster invitees like Jason Marquis. Largely because they have so much money tied up in certain players and don't have the financial flexibility to find bargains on the open market. And by "bargains" I mean legit MLB players; not washed-up scrubs.

  12. #86
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract

    Quote Originally Posted by Larkin88 View Post
    Oh this again. Joy.
    Yes, the gift of truth is a joyous giving.
    "This isnt stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  13. #87
    Member kbrake's Avatar
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    Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract

    Quote Originally Posted by Chuckie View Post
    You can think it's "absolute nonsense" ... that's fine. As I said, it's just my opinion, but I would bet big that Homer doesn't get that contract without the two no-nos. We'll never know for sure, so safe to say we can agree to disagree on this one. I'm not going to change my mind and you aren't going to change yours. All good.

    Oh, and one more thing: You said in your second-to-last sentence that the Reds have done similar "deals" (plural). Other than Cueto, what deals are you referring to?
    I didn't mean to come across as a jerk with the absolute nonsense thing I've just seen so many people try to make that claim and it makes absolute no sense to me.

    As for the other deals I liked the Bruce and Mesoraco contracts. I feel like Walt has done pretty well on the bigger stuff. Like the trades he has made and the contracts he has given outside of the Brandon Phillips extension. My issue with this front office is how they spend money and give away multi year deals to the smaller pieces on the roster. Why every journeyman bench piece has to have a two year deal I'll never understand.

  14. #88
    Member Larkin88's Avatar
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    Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    Yes, the gift of truth is a joyous giving.


    Bet Latos is getting jazzed for that 6 yr/$96M deal right about now.

  15. #89
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract

    Quote Originally Posted by Larkin88 View Post


    Bet Latos is getting jazzed for that 6 yr/$96M deal right about now.
    What a silly thing to argue.
    "This isnt stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  16. #90
    Member Larkin88's Avatar
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    Re: Choo and that albatross Rangers contract

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    What a silly thing to argue.
    All in good fun jojo. Trying to keep things cordial.

    I remember that thread and the Cameron piece well. Love reading most of what he puts together.


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