Antonio Santillian

[Benihana]

Second round HS RHP out of Texas. A young Carlos Zambrano, perhaps?


"HIGH, HIGH, HIGH, HIGH upside. Long way to go." JJ Cooper

"1st round arm, 40th round command." Jim Callis

[_Sir_Charles_]

http://m.mlb.com/video/v84134583/dra...lan-hs-pitcher

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MS5pnHU4fhk

[texasdave]

Santillan was a late riser this year; and while I certainly understand the appeal, I think there's an awful lot of work to be done if he's going to be a big league pitcher. The fastball is plus-plus (though there's no projection left) and the curveball is another out pitch, but the delivery is unrepeatable, and there's no third pitch. Again, someone will see the fastball and curve and snap him up early, but if it's before the third round I think it's a mistake.

http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/201...-giants-rumors

[marcshoe]

Sounds worrisome. I don't like to hear the bit about lack of repeatability. Soto announced the pick; maybe he'd be a good choice to work with him.

[membengal]

Boras reps him, so there's that too.

[M2]

http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/201...-giants-rumors

The more I read about Santillan, the less I like the pick. I'd rather avoid HS arms maxed out on velo w/out a clean delivery. They invariably lose velo and who knows if you can get their mechanics fixed. The art of drafting, supposedly, is being able to project what a kid will be in the future. Seems to me that, in Santillan, the Reds drafted a fastball that might not be around five years from now.

[dougdirt]

My take: In a draft that is so weak that a three year starting college shortstop that isn't considered to be an above-average defender went in the Top 20 despite hitting a grand total of 2 home runs in over 600 career at bats with metal bats, you take upside and don't worry about it if the pick doesn't work. Taking a high floor guy wasn't likely to work out either because this draft is atrocious. I'll take my chances on a kid that can throw 98.

[Tom Servo]

Apparently he goes by Tony.

https://twitter.com/gunsuptony2

[Kc61]

My take: In a draft that is so weak that a three year starting college shortstop that isn't considered to be an above-average defender went in the Top 20 despite hitting a grand total of 2 home runs in over 600 career at bats with metal bats, you take upside and don't worry about it if the pick doesn't work. Taking a high floor guy wasn't likely to work out either because this draft is atrocious. I'll take my chances on a kid that can throw 98.

Ok, sure, but to play devil's advocate: BA rated Santillian 100 and MLB rated him, I think, 63.

He was taken at 49.

So it's a weak draft but many prospects were rated higher.

Hard to judge exactly what the Reds' reasons are for these picks, there may be financial considerations and we'll see who signs under slot. Some of the money could be used later on in the draft.

Simply have to trust Buckley and his judgment on these things.

[RedlegJake]

The Reds pay millions in total for scouting and drafting analysis - one thing that bugs me somewhat is the cries from everyone when they take a guy that BA ranks 40 or 50 picks back - "Oh they reached, not the best guy, look at BA's ranking!" The Reds have their own ranking. They may well have Santillian as #40 overall on their own board - we just don't know. They went with the highest upside possible on this pick and it looks like the highest risk possible, too. But again, maybe their development people looked at him, looked at tape, and said - we can fix him, grab him if he's there. Another team picked before the Reds took a guy ranked 327th, the Orioles took a guy right before the Reds that was ranked 188th. If BA/BP were the real bible the draft picks would fall almost exactly in line. That's never the case. After the 15 to 20 guys are off the board the picks start going all over the place - ALL teams do. And when you add in the pool strategies and signability issues it gets even more out of whack.

[M2]

My take: In a draft that is so weak that a three year starting college shortstop that isn't considered to be an above-average defender went in the Top 20 despite hitting a grand total of 2 home runs in over 600 career at bats with metal bats, you take upside and don't worry about it if the pick doesn't work. Taking a high floor guy wasn't likely to work out either because this draft is atrocious. I'll take my chances on a kid that can throw 98.

I get the philosophy, but that fastball is a phantom. It's going to disappear, never to be seen again. If the Reds wanted a young pitcher with big upside, Brady Singer was there for that pick.

[dougdirt]

I get the philosophy, but that fastball is a phantom. It's going to disappear, never to be seen again.

Well, that's certainly one take.

[Steve4192]

I get the philosophy, but that fastball is a phantom. It's going to disappear, never to be seen again.

Or the Reds could work over his mechanics and he emerges as a kid who can throw 100+, with improved control to boot.

I'm the first guy to caution people about how rare it is for ANY draft prospect to work out, but if you are going to gamble, you might as well go all in. This kid is certainly riskier than many of the available alternatives, and most likely won't amount to anything (just like most other second round picks), but on the off chance that he does amount to something, he could be special. If you know going in that only 5% to 10% of the kids you draft are likely to stick in the majors, why not roll the dice on a kid who has a chance to be outstanding?

[REDREAD]

Ok, sure, but to play devil's advocate: BA rated Santillian 100 and MLB rated him, I think, 63.

He was taken at 49.

So it's a weak draft but many prospects were rated higher.

Hard to judge exactly what the Reds' reasons are for these picks, there may be financial considerations and we'll see who signs under slot. Some of the money could be used later on in the draft.

Simply have to trust Buckley and his judgment on these things.

Yea, I agree on trusting Buckley. Grading Santtilian somewhere between 63-100 now is definitely fair.
He deserves some downgrading due to his wildness.
My hope is that Buckley and Co feel that they can correct his mechanics and all the raw tools are there.

If you think about it, the Reds successfully adjusted mechanics of Homer, Chapman, and are in process of doing it with Howard.
I think Stephenson too, maybe, but maybe my memory is fading.
So I am going to trust these guys that they think they can fix him.

And I 100% agree with Doug, I'd rather pick a project with the ceiling of an ace, as opposed to a guy that is 80% likely to be a utility infielder at best.

[REDREAD]

I get the philosophy, but that fastball is a phantom. It's going to disappear, never to be seen again. If the Reds wanted a young pitcher with big upside, Brady Singer was there for that pick.

He may lose some velocity when his mechanics straighten out.. but let's say he drops from 98 to 92. He's still got a great curveball.
Seems like he could still be a useful pitcher for the future, even if he ends up being a curveball/FB guy out of the pen. Not bad for a 2nd round pick.

Of course, he could completely flame out too.