Antonio Santillian

[M2]

Or the Reds could work over his mechanics and he emerges as a kid who can throw 100+, with improved control to boot.

Far more likely he loses velo while trying to learn mechanics. Plus, with mechanics as erratic as his, arm injuries seem like a guarantee. Add in zero projection and you've got a poster boy for a kid who's peaking at age 18.

I'm hoping it works out like you say, but I'm going to need to see him come out the other side of that rabbit hole before I put any faith in it.

[nemesis]

Or the Reds could work over his mechanics and he emerges as a kid who can throw 100+, with improved control to boot.

I'm the first guy to caution people about how rare it is for ANY draft prospect to work out, but if you are going to gamble, you might as well go all in. This kid is certainly riskier than many of the available alternatives, and most likely won't amount to anything (just like most other second round picks), but on the off chance that he does amount to something, he could be special. If you know going in that only 5% to 10% of the kids you draft are likely to stick in the majors, why not roll the dice on a kid who has a chance to be outstanding?

Agreed. I once siad I'd rather have 1 player with Billy Hamilton like potential than 10 CHris Valakia's. This team got to where they are at by drafting alot of low floor guys earlythat never panned out .

Look at the Major League roster for proof.

Votto - HS
Phillips - HS
Frazier - College
Cozart - College
Mesoraco - HS
Hamilton - HS
Bruce - HS
Barnhart - HS


Cueto - HS Equivilant
Bailey - HS
Leake - College
DeScafalini - College
Lorenzen - College

HS players dominate the roster.

Add in the Reds top Prospects...

Stephenson (SP) HS
Stephenson (C) HS
Blandino - College
Ervin - College
Garrett - HS
Travieso - HS
Romano - HS
Yorman - HS Equivilant
Winker - HS
Mahle - HS
Waldrop - HS
Aquino - HS Equivilant


Take in to account that you will sign at least twice as many College Players as HS the sucess rate is much much higher to go HS project that College prospect.

[Kc61]

The Reds pay millions in total for scouting and drafting analysis - one thing that bugs me somewhat is the cries from everyone when they take a guy that BA ranks 40 or 50 picks back - "Oh they reached, not the best guy, look at BA's ranking!" The Reds have their own ranking. They may well have Santillian as #40 overall on their own board - we just don't know. They went with the highest upside possible on this pick and it looks like the highest risk possible, too. But again, maybe their development people looked at him, looked at tape, and said - we can fix him, grab him if he's there. Another team picked before the Reds took a guy ranked 327th, the Orioles took a guy right before the Reds that was ranked 188th. If BA/BP were the real bible the draft picks would fall almost exactly in line. That's never the case. After the 15 to 20 guys are off the board the picks start going all over the place - ALL teams do. And when you add in the pool strategies and signability issues it gets even more out of whack.

True, but we don't have the Reds' rankings. Or other teams'. The frame of reference for fans is typically the rankings of the publications like BA and MLB.com.

Obviously the Reds ranked Santillian within their top 49 -- otherwise why take him?

But, as fans, we tend to measure the picks -- at least initially -- against those lists that are made public, which we can read and analyze, and which have been proven (to some extent) to have credibility in the past.

And when there's a departure from those public sources, we ask questions and even challenge the pick. And this is fully appropriate, IMO.

[Ironman92]

I don't like the Boras part.

[traderumor]

Far more likely he loses velo while trying to learn mechanics. Plus, with mechanics as erratic as his, arm injuries seem like a guarantee. Add in zero projection and you've got a poster boy for a kid who's peaking at age 18.

I'm hoping it works out like you say, but I'm going to need to see him come out the other side of that rabbit hole before I put any faith in it.

I'm not sure that I follow an axiom of better mechanics = lost velocity. The power is there with mechanical flaws, so it would seem to me the key component is "the power is there," and the mechanics might net same and/or more and/or more consistent velocity as a possible bet as well?

[M2]

I'm not sure that I follow an axiom of better mechanics = lost velocity. The power is there with mechanical flaws, so it would seem to me the key component is "the power is there," and the mechanics might net same and/or more and/or more consistent velocity as a possible bet as well?

Mechanical flaws aren't much of a hindrance when you're young and chuck a ball through the side of a barn, especially if you don't have to worry over much about where it's going. Who's hitting a 98 MPH heater in HS? Santillan doesn't have to think or to work, he only has to chuck. Now he's got to work and create the muscle memory for a repeatable delivery. He's going to have to think about what he's doing and where in the strike zone he'd like the ball to go. Essentially, he's going to have to learn how to pitch.

Think of it like if you've got a rocket car. Goes super fast in a straight line, but it's going to dump a bunch of speed if you modify it to handle turns or to drive in less-than-pristine road conditions. The player example I always go back to is Colt Griffin, touche triple digits with no mechanics to speak of. The Royals took him 9th overall, tried to give a consistent arm slot and release point, and the velo dove into the low 90s. Still had that great arm, but he'd gotten too far down the road with rearing back and flinging it. It was too much adaptation from what he'd been doing. Santillan is looking at some major adaptation too. I'm not saying it can't be done, but I'm skeptical and I wouldn't have bet 2nd round money on it.

[Eric from NC]

Given all the high school pitchers went before the college pitchers seemed to indicate a weak draft with pitching being a weak area of the draft as far as true first round prospects. For example, the Braves used a first round or compensation picks on a Canadian high school pitcher despite him playing against few division I type players. Taking a risk on guy who has upside in round 2 seems to make sense.

[bellhead]

I posted a story about the biomechanics and modern day pitching about three years ago. Here are a couple of stories I pulled out of the web about it.

http://3psports.com/3pn/3p-pitching-...ideo-analysis/

http://splicetoday.com/baltimore/ori...-rick-peterson

I am certain the Reds are also doing this along with every other team in MLB by now, so expect Antonio to goto Arizona and work on his mechanics before he goes to Billings and then to Dayton.

[klw]

http://m.reds.mlb.com/news/article/1...tarts-off-well

Antonio Santillan, an 18-year old from Seguin High School in Arlington, Texas, is not only learning about life as a professional baseball player, but also about life as an independent adult.

"Different than high school," Santillan said. "You've got to learn things on your own, there's not people there telling you what to do, you have to figure it out. You have your own responsibilities."
The adjustment can be a tough one for some, but Santillan has handled it well, with some help from his teammates.
"I made friends with the older guys, the veterans," Santillan said. "They've told me the ins and outs of it and it's a learning process.

[nate1213]

I'm much higher on him then a lot on here are. From playing in college to now coaching in high school, you can see how idiotic some of these coaches are. If someone tried to change his mechanics at his high school and he never got on track or didn't fully commit to these change in mechanics, you waste a whole year. The sad thing is it was his senior year. If the Reds get him sorted with his mechanics, with his stuff and upside, I think he has a very high ceiling.

[Tom Servo]

I'm much higher on him then a lot on here are. From playing in college to now coaching in high school, you can see how idiotic some of these coaches are. If someone tried to change his mechanics at his high school and he never got on track or didn't fully commit to these change in mechanics, you waste a whole year. The sad thing is it was his senior year. If the Reds get him sorted with his mechanics, with his stuff and upside, I think he has a very high ceiling.

Both he and Ian Kahaloa will be interesting to follow, a couple of raw teenagers with extremely live arms.

[dougdirt]

http://m.reds.mlb.com/news/article/1...tarts-off-well

Slowpokes. I beat them to the punch by a few hours today. Sure, they talked to him, but I've got scouting data. Take that MLB.com.

[Chuckie]

Both he and Ian Kahaloa will be interesting to follow, a couple of raw teenagers with extremely live arms.

Alexis Diaz (12th rounder) and Andrew Jordan (13th rounder) were other intriguing HS pitchers taken by the Reds. I also like the Canadian duo of Anesty (18th) and Shred (22nd).

[OnBaseMachine]

Doug posted a video of Tony Santillan from Spring Training yesterday. Santillan wasn't my favorite pick, but I must say I was very impressed after watching the video. His mechanics look much smoother than before. His fastball explodes out of his hand, and with a plus breaking ball you can begin to understand why the Reds selected him in the second round. Redsof72 mentioned a few days ago Santillan may start the season in Dayton. I'll link to Doug's site where the video is posted.

http://redsminorleagues.com/2016/03/...onday-arizona/

[lollipopcurve]

Doug posted a video of Tony Santillan from Spring Training yesterday. Santillan wasn't my favorite pick, but I must say I was very impressed after watching the video. His mechanics look much smoother than before. His fastball explodes out of his hand, and with a plus breaking ball you can begin to understand why the Reds selected him in the second round. Redsof72 mentioned a few days ago Santillan may start the season in Dayton. I'll link to Doug's site where the video is posted.

http://redsminorleagues.com/2016/03/...onday-arizona/

Yep. Looks like a big strong hoss out there with an easy delivery. Every pitch is around the plate. Throws one curveball and it looked to have real bite.

The video of Rainey looked good too. His breaking ball just ate up the hitter.