Looking Ahead: 2016 Draft

[Benihana]

You can criticize the picks if you want, but let's not play second guessing here.

Yes, a lot of people thought the Howard pick was a head scratcher at the time. That's not the same thing as saying he sucked from day 1. He didn't, so let's not pretend like he did. He's turned into a guy that there's a very, very small chance of him ever succeeding. Literally no one could see what happened, happening, no matter how bad you thought the pick was.

I said the pick was a disaster from day 1, which it was. Say whatever you want about his ho-hum debut performance, but that pick sucked from the moment it was made.

As for Michael Wacha - yeah, lots of you wanted to pick him. What you didn't know at the time was that he couldn't pass his physical. If you knew that at the time, I wonder how many of you would have said "draft him anyways". I'm betting it wouldn't be too many of you who are still years later bringing it up at every given chance you've got.

Giolito - everyone knew he was hurt, so if you backed that pick, good job. But also realize that he cost $1M more to sign than Travieso did. And that maybe that money wasn't available to the Reds. Maybe it was. I don't know what was going on in the room at the time - but it's not exactly an apples to apples comparison either.

I can't take any credit for Wacha, but Giolito was pretty obvious. We all knew it.

Finally, for those who are freaking out over Ty Stepehenson, I'd actually say that there's a different first rounder who's hitting performance is giving me heartburn so far in this first month: Alex Blandino's .103 batting average in Pensacola. Let's hope the small sample size is meaningless (I'm not freaking out), but if not, this could be yet another black eye for Buckley and Co.

[11larkin11]

A lot of the people saying I-told-you-so about Howard absolutely lost their minds when the Reds took Blandino next. And while he's not the perfect prospect, he's turned into a pretty good one. I only bring this up because I remember how terrible that draft thread was with the Blandino hate.


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[Tom Servo]

I'd actually say that there's a different first rounder who's hitting performance is giving me heartburn so far in this first month: Alex Blandino's .103 batting average in Pensacola. Let's hope the small sample size is meaningless (I'm not freaking out), but if not, this could be yet another black eye for Buckley and Co.

3-5 with two doubles tonight, his 9th game. He'll be fine.

[JaxRed]

I'm concerned about Blandino also. Certainly the .176 average can be dismissed with the "small sample" stick, but he also hit .235 with over 100 at-bats last year in AA. I'm concerned he has "hit the ceiling", and will become another failure of the "hard working gym-rat" variety.

I want a hitter with our #2 overall pick. And a hitter with big-upside.

[Tom Servo]

I'm concerned about Blandino also. Certainly the .176 average can be dismissed with the "small sample" stick, but he also hit .235 with over 100 at-bats last year in AA.

With a 21 K/19 BB ratio and a .350 OBP and and .724 OPS. And just 100 at-bats.

Boy, Redszone is quick to sour.

[Benihana]

With a 21 K/19 BB ratio and a .350 OBP and and .724 OPS. And just 100 at-bats.

Boy, Redszone is quick to sour.

We're not allowed to sour. When it's early, you scream about sample size. When it becomes clearer, you pivot to "why kick a corpse" like with Howard. It's a fair thing to wonder about a 23.5 year old offensive prospect straddling the Mendoza line after 150 AB in AA across two seasons. Remember he's the same age as Yorman Rodriguez (and Phil Ervin for that matter). I'm not throwing in the towel on him by any stretch, but it's a fair thing to wonder about.

[Tom Servo]

We're not allowed to sour. When it's early, you scream about sample size. When it becomes clearer, you pivot to "why kick a corpse" like with Howard. It's a fair thing to wonder about a 23.5 year old offensive prospect straddling the Mendoza line after 150 AB in AA across two seasons. Remember he's the same age as Yorman Rodriguez. I'm not throwing in the towel on him by any stretch, but it's a fair thing to wonder about.

I mean, it's not the same thing. Howard is just a trainwreck, all I was saying is the fact that he's a 1st round bust doesn't need to be brought up every time he pitches. Like Thom Brennaman commenting on Hoover giving up a 3rd straight double to the Cubs, "Enough!"

Blandino has played 39 games in AA. If you want to draw conclusions from that, be my guest. I'm not going to.

[nmculbreth]

I would be infinitely more concerned if Blandino's plate approach started to suffer, but it hasn't. I think he's the type of guy that should get a lot of rope, given that he's always had a good aproach and a trackrecord of hitting.

[JaxRed]

His performance is lowering as he progresses. In Rookie ball he had a .939 OPS, Dayton .769, Daytona .808, and Pensacola I assume the combined average is now sub .700 over parts of 2 seasons. You bet I'm concerned.

[Bourgeois Zee]

His performance is lowering as he progresses. In Rookie ball he had a .939 OPS, Dayton .769, Daytona .808, and Pensacola I assume the combined average is now sub .700 over parts of 2 seasons. You bet I'm concerned.

Umm, last I checked, .808's higher than .769.

It may also make you happier if you begin to think about park and league effects.

For example, in Daytona last year, Blandino hit 48% better than league average. That was a career high.

In AA, despite pedestrian numbers, he was 11% better than league average.

[JaxRed]

Oh, then my argument is wrong. Look if you don't see downward trend as he advances, you're ignoring the facts. Can he reverse the trend is the question.

[Benihana]

To clarify, I'm actually not terribly concerned about Blandino at this time. I just think it's a situation that bears watching, that's all. As I said in my initial post on this matter, it's more something to watch than Tyler Stephenson's first 10 games in full season ball. Hopefully both players turn it around from here.

[M2]

Oh, then my argument is wrong. Look if you don't see downward trend as he advances, you're ignoring the facts. Can he reverse the trend is the question.

The fact is he hit better in Daytona than Dayton, especially when you adjust for the league. It's unsure whether he'll make the AA jump at this time, but nothing that's happened in nine games coming off a preseason injury should be altering anyone's opinion on the guy. Fine if you were down on him before now. Just that anything that's happened in 2016 probably shouldn't be swaying you overly much.

[malcontent]

I would be infinitely more concerned if Blandino's plate approach started to suffer, but it hasn't. I think he's the type of guy that should get a lot of rope, given that he's always had a good aproach and a trackrecord of hitting.

I don't think Blandino is going to be one of Buckley's signature busts.

I don't see a high ceiling, but I think he'll have a decent MLB career.

[Rojo Rijo]

Some of y'all really need help understanding what the word "development" means in terms of athletes.

It's not always clearly visible in statistics which in my opinion have the tendency to be very shallow measurements of these young players at times.

Hitting is hitting but where are you going to see in the statistics that a player may have adjusted his approach (stance, position, elbow level etc.) in hopes of improving his ability to hit a pitch that he has struggled with? An adjustment can cause problems in other areas to, just like any kind of change. The bottom line is they are developing. We are always so quick to let the statistics rule our opinion on the potential of these players.

Obviously I'm not saying ignore statistics, that would be stupid. Just understand that like investments/stocks there are likely to be ups/downs along the way, as long as the ups outweigh the downs everything tends to work out.

One last note, we all have opinions, we're all going to be right sometimes and wrong sometimes. Same as scouts. Again, as long as the rights outweigh the wrongs we're doing good.