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Thread: Looking Ahead: 2016 Draft

  1. #46
    Member corkedbat's Avatar
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2016 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan View Post
    Given the glut of bats in the system, can the Reds afford to take a high school hitter with their first pick?

    Where is this glut of which you speak? I know it not.

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  4. #47
    Member marcshoe's Avatar
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2016 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Gallen5862 View Post
    Code:
    Philadelphia Phillies	50	77	.394	GB	
    Miami Marlins           51	76	.402	1
    Colorado Rockies	51	74	.408	2	
    
    Cincinnati Reds	        52	74	.413	3		
    Milwaukee Brewers	53	73	.421	3.5	
    Atlanta Braves	        54	73	.425	4
    Oakland Athletics	55	73	.430	5
    	
    Boston Red Sox	        57	69	.452	7.5
    Seattle Mariners	59 	68	.465	9
    Cleveland Indians	59   	66  	.472	8.5
    Detroit Tigers	        60 	66	.476	9.5		
    Chicago White Sox	59	65	.476	9
    San Diego Padres	62	64	.492	11

    Ties are broken by which team had a worse record in 2014. Reds would hold tiebreaker advantage over: Detroit, Tampa, San Diego, Seattle, Atlanta, Cleveland, Oakland, and Miami. As of today the Reds would pick 4th. Top Ten are protected from loss if Qualifying Offer FA is signed.
    Are they protected from loss period, or would they forfeit their next pick after the first round pick? I was remembering the latter, but I'm not sure.
    Last edited by Gallen5862; 08-27-2015 at 04:18 PM.
    It is on the whole probable that we continually dream, but that consciousness makes such a noise that we do not hear it. Carl Jung.

  5. #48
    I wear Elly colored glass WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2016 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    Where is this glut of which you speak? I know it not.
    Um, I meant "dearth." That's what I get for posting without alcohol.
    Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. -- Carl Sagan (Pale Blue Dot)

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  7. #49
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2016 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by marcshoe View Post
    Are they protected from loss period, or would they forfeit their next pick after the first round pick? I was remembering the latter, but I'm not sure.
    Protected from loss period. The team losing the player gets a pick at the end of the first round but it doesn't cost the signing team if they are in the top ten.
    99% of all numbers only tell 33% of the story so when looking at the numbers remember that numbers is plural...

  8. #50
    Member Mike Honcho's Avatar
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2016 Draft

    Jake, I'm pretty sure when picking in the top ten you lose your next highest pick when signing a comp FA. So for the Reds that would be their competitive pick A they received.
    "When I began playing the game, baseball was about as gentlemanly as a kick in the crotch." - Ty Cobb

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    REDREAD (08-27-2015)

  10. #51
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2016 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Honcho View Post
    Jake, I'm pretty sure when picking in the top ten you lose your next highest pick when signing a comp FA. So for the Reds that would be their competitive pick A they received.
    I looked it up and you are right. I'm not sure about the next highest however, reading the rules it seems they would surrender their 2nd rounder, but keep the comp pick
    99% of all numbers only tell 33% of the story so when looking at the numbers remember that numbers is plural...

  11. #52
    Member Mike Honcho's Avatar
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2016 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    I looked it up and you are right. I'm not sure about the next highest however, reading the rules it seems they would surrender their 2nd rounder, but keep the comp pick
    I recall it applying to the 2013 Yankees offseason. The lost picks kept changing as they lost and gained picks with Cano and Granderson leaving and then signing Beltran, Ellsbury and McCann. I'm not sure how it would work with a top ten protected team though.
    "When I began playing the game, baseball was about as gentlemanly as a kick in the crotch." - Ty Cobb

  12. #53
    Moderator Gallen5862's Avatar
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2016 Draft

    Code:
    Philadelphia Phillies	52	78	.400	GB	
    Miami Marlins           52	78	.400	-
    Colorado Rockies	51	76	.402	2	
    
    Cincinnati Reds	        53	75	.414   	2		
    Milwaukee Brewers	54	75	.419	3.5	
    Atlanta Braves	        54	75	.419	4
    Oakland Athletics	56	74	.431	5
    	
    Boston Red Sox	        60	69	.465   	7.5
    Detroit Tigers	        60 	69	.465   	9.5
    Seattle Mariners	61 	69	.469	9
    Chicago White Sox	60	68	.469	9
    San Diego Padres	62	67	.481	11	
    Cleveland Indians 	62   	66  	.484   	 8.5

    Ties are broken by which team had a worse record in 2014. Reds would hold tiebreaker advantage over: Detroit, Tampa, San Diego, Seattle, Atlanta, Cleveland, Oakland, and Miami. As of today the Reds would pick 4th. Top Ten are protected from loss if Qualifying Offer FA is signed.
    Last edited by Gallen5862; 08-30-2015 at 11:00 AM.

  13. #54
    I wear Elly colored glass WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2016 Draft

    I will say I'm really looking forward to the draft next year when the Reds have 3 of the first ~40 picks. Time to stock up on position players.
    Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. -- Carl Sagan (Pale Blue Dot)

  14. #55
    Moderator Gallen5862's Avatar
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2016 Draft

    Code:
    Philadelphia Phillies	53	83	.390	GB	
    Atlanta Braves	        54	82	.397	1
    Cincinnati Reds	        55	78	.414   	3
    Miami Marlins           56	80	.412   	3
    Colorado Rockies	56	78	.418	3.5
    
    Oakland Athletics	58	77	.430	5
    Milwaukee Brewers	59	75	.440	5.5
    
    Detroit Tigers	        62 	73	.459   	9
    Boston Red Sox	        63	72	.467    9
    Seattle Mariners	64 	71	.474	9
    Chicago White Sox	64	70	.478 	9.5
    
    
    San Diego Padres	65	69	.485	11.5	
    Cleveland Indians 	65   	68  	.489   	12

    Ties are broken by which team had a worse record in 2014. Reds would hold tiebreaker advantage over: Detroit, Tampa, San Diego, Seattle, Atlanta, Cleveland, Oakland, and Miami. As of today the Reds would pick 3rd. Top Ten are protected from loss if Qualifying Offer FA is signed.
    Last edited by Gallen5862; 09-05-2015 at 10:44 PM.

  15. #56
    Moderator Gallen5862's Avatar
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2016 Draft

    Code:
    Philadelphia Phillies	53	84	.387	GB
    Atlanta Braves	        54	83	.394	1.0
    Colorado Rockies	56	80	.412	2.5
    
    Cincinnati Reds	        56	79	.415	4.0	
    Miami Marlins	        57	80	.416	4.0
    	
    
    Oakland Athletics	58	79	.423	5.0	
    Milwaukee Brewers	60	76	.441	7.5	
    Detroit Tigers	        62	74	.456	8.5	
    Boston Red Sox	        64	72	.471	9.5	
    Chicago White Sox	65	70	.481	11
    Ties are broken by which team had a worse record in 2014. Reds would hold tiebreaker advantage over: Detroit, Tampa, San Diego, Seattle, Atlanta, Cleveland, Oakland, and Miami. As of today the Reds would pick 4th. Top Ten are protected from loss if Qualifying Offer FA is signed.
    Last edited by Gallen5862; 09-07-2015 at 05:36 PM.

  16. #57
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2016 Draft

    It's early yet, but Chaminade CF Blake Rutherford is considered the third-best prospect in the 2016 draft as of now. Rutherford looks to have the wheels to stick in CF, but his plus arm may push him to RF. According to Kiley McDaniel, he's a plus runner with above average tools across the board. Long way to go, but I'd love to see a talent like that added to the Reds' farm.

  17. #58
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2016 Draft

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    It's early yet, but Chaminade CF Blake Rutherford is considered the third-best prospect in the 2016 draft as of now. Rutherford looks to have the wheels to stick in CF, but his plus arm may push him to RF. According to Kiley McDaniel, he's a plus runner with above average tools across the board. Long way to go, but I'd love to see a talent like that added to the Reds' farm.
    Yes. Rutherford or Nick Banks are my early favorites. The best bats available that also happen to be OF. The only part of that scouting report I don't understand is why, if someone had the wheels to stick in CF, would their superior arm push them to RF? Wouldn't you always rather have the superior fielder (arm included) in CF if they could stick there?
    Go BLUE!!!

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    REDREAD (09-07-2015)

  19. #59
    Member camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2016 Draft

    Reposting this from tORG:
    Over the past 10 years, here's how many wins each of the top 10 picks averaged:
    Code:
    PICK	   1    2    3    4    5    6    7    8    9   10
    WINS	58.4 63.3 65.5 67.2 68.5 70.6 71.5 73.5 74.0 74.7
    If the Reds finish 12-14, they'll end up with a 68-94 record. The last time a team with less than 69 wins didn't get a top-5 pick was in 2004, so that doesn't happen very often. Even if they get on a hot streak and go 18-8, they're likely to end up with one of the protected picks.

  20. #60
    Moderator Gallen5862's Avatar
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    Re: Looking Ahead: 2016 Draft

    Code:
    Philadelphia Phillies	54	85	.388	GB
    Atlanta Braves	        55	84	.396	1.0
    Miami Marlins	        57	81	.413	3.5
    Colorado Rockies	57	80	.416	3.5
    
    Cincinnati Reds	        57	80	.416	4.5	
    Oakland Athletics	59	79	.428	5.0	
    Milwaukee Brewers	61	76	.445	7.5	
    Detroit Tigers	        63	74	.460	8.5	
    Boston Red Sox	        65	73	.471	9.5	
    Chicago White Sox	65	71	.478	11
    Ties are broken by which team had a worse record in 2014. Reds would hold tiebreaker advantage over: Detroit, Tampa, San Diego, Seattle, Atlanta, Cleveland, Oakland, and Miami. As of today the Reds would pick 5th. Top Ten are protected from loss if Qualifying Offer FA is signed.
    Last edited by Gallen5862; 09-08-2015 at 11:24 PM.


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