On Deck: 2016 Draft Discussion Continued

[LoganBuck]

Previous thread crossed 1000 posts, yesterday.

After the weekend my current list for 2

Groome
Senzel
Perez
Lewis

[Benihana]

Groome
Perez
Rutherford

[Tom Servo]

Assuming Groome is #1, I'm still digging Senzel or Perez.

[RedlegJake]

I am still banging the Kyle Lewis drum. I think he's the best shot at a really big impactful hitter with an excellent risk/reward. I see Senzel as the safe pick, and Perez as the gambler's choice. Groome's ceiling makes him hard to resist, though, if the Phils take someone else. I do like Moniak but not at 2, if the Reds were picking 5th or 6th he might be the guy. And Rutherford's age does bother me - that age chart posted in the earlier thread was a real eye opener.

[Cannon]

I agree with Senzel as the 'safe pick' but I also don't think Lewis' floor is much lower than Senzel's and his ceiling is higher. I have real doubts that Senzel will develop beyond 20 HR power, and he may have to move to the corner outfield. His approach is great and I'm sure he'll have a good OBP to go with a high average (along with being a relatively safe bet to reach his ceiling) but I think Lewis could pretty easily be all those things as well but he has much more power upside.

I also like Perez and Moniak, and I don't mind Rutherford. The only guy that's been talked about that I absolutely want no part of is Corey Ray, at least not that high.

I'm also firmly in the camp of trying to offer an above slot bonus to get a top player at 35 (Moniak would be the dream) though I also like guys like Benson and Kieboom.

[Mitri]

Jumping on the Moniak bandwagon. Looks like a whiz in the field, good mix of plate discipline and power. Perfect frame for the game.

Ray/Lewis/Senzel all have clear question marks. I wouldn't call a college 3B with 10 career home runs the safe pick. I like Ray more than most here, in my mind he's the safe pick. His one true weakness seems the least glaring out of the three college guys. Lewis' swing looks like a mess, he could be getting by on raw tools against lesser talent. Who knows?

Groome is the clear #1, but I wouldn't be surprised if Puk makes a run back into the top-5.

Perez is the true mystery man thus far.

[Cannon]

These are their relative statistics as college hitters, and their team averages in brackets:

Kyle Lewis (Mercer): AVG - .414 (.295), OBP - .540 (.397), SLG - .789 (.492)
Nick Senzel (Tennessee): AVG - .340 (.301), OBP - .457 (.370), SLG - .569 (.414)

Now it's still worth noting that Senzel outperformed Lewis in the Cod, but they both had exceptional showings as 19 year olds (Senzel had 86 total bases, Lewis 78 with very similar plate discipline).

So for me I think Senzel probably has a bit of a higher floor, but I feel like Lewis just has a power potential that Senzel doesn't.

[Cannon]

Sorry for the double post. Outside of bonus shenanigans this is how I would like to see the first round go for us, in order.

2nd - Kyle Lewis, Delvin Perez, Nick Senzel
35th - Carter Kieboom, William Benson, Cal Quantrill

I'm very close to putting Moniak over Senzel and Perez though.

[M2]

These are their relative statistics as college hitters, and I've also included the Cape for a reference point as well:

Kyle Lewis (Mercer): AVG - .414 (.295), OBP - .540 (.397), SLG - .789 (.492)
Nick Senzel (Tennessee): AVG - .340 (.301), OBP - .457 (.370), SLG - .569 (.414)

Now it's still worth noting that Senzel outperformed Lewis in the Cod, but they both had exceptional showings as 19 year olds (Senzel had 86 total bases, Lewis 78 with very similar plate discipline).

So for me I think Senzel probably has a bit of a higher floor, but I feel like Lewis just has a power potential that Senzel doesn't.

How exactly do you figure Senzel outperformed Lewis on the Cape?

[RiverRat13]

Link to 2015 Cape Cod stats:

http://www.pointstreak.com/baseball/...rby=avg&range=

[dougdirt]

How exactly do you figure Senzel outperformed Lewis on the Cape?

Because he clearly did. Cannon simply used the wrong numbers in his post.

Senzel hit .364/.418/.558
Lewis hit .300/344/.500

[M2]

Because he clearly did. Cannon simply used the wrong numbers in his post.

Senzel hit .364/.418/.558
Lewis hit .300/344/.500

Ah, those weren't the numbers that were posted. That's what threw me.

[Cannon]

Oh, sorry I was originally going to include the Cape numbers in my post but forgot to. The numbers in brackets are actually their team averages, not the wrong numbers. I was going back and forth and forgot to delete that part of the post. Sorry for the confusion.

[RiverRat13]

Senzel played SS this past week.

http://redsminorleagues.com/2016/04/...ay-update-4-5/

[OnBaseMachine]

Kyle Lewis had a rough week getting shutdown by Furman and striking out seven times. The lack of strong competition scares me. I'm still on the Nick Senzel/Blake Rutherford bandwagon with Delvin Perez in there too if he blows up.