On Deck: 2016 Draft Discussion Continued

[NC Reds]

All of the SEC picks in the first seven last year (Swanson, Bregman, Benintendi) are looking good so far. Leaning toward Senzel right now.

For the comp or second round, I would give a big look at Will Craig for Wake Forest. He has video game numbers this year. I see him as a first baseman.

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/...ason_stats.pdf

[Bourgeois Zee]

One of my favorites right now is HS IF Cole Stobbe. Decent wheels, a possibility of sticking at SS (and an arm that profiles at either 2B or 3B). Best of all, his bat speed grades out as a 10. Helped the u18 USA team to a gold medal. Committed to Arkansas, but a 2nd round or supplemental pick wouldn't be wasted on him, IMO.

One to keep an eye on at any rate.

[Cannon]

What about Heath Quinn?

[Bourgeois Zee]

What about Heath Quinn?

A poor man's Lewis, I'd be thrilled if he landed in the Reds' laps as a third rounder.

[Tom Servo]

Eric Lauer is turning in another stellar campaign for Kent State that I think might propel him into the first round (damn Cardinals will probably take him) but he'd look good at #35. Miami catcher Zack Collins is another guy I really liked heading into the season, but he's had a monster campaign that probably guarantees him a 1st round selection.

[Redeyecat]

see next post

[Redeyecat]

Just when you think that things might be starting to take shape:

...Groome, who will become eligible on Wednesday and will pitch Saturday in the Ocean County Tournament, is still under consideration by the Phillies. However, Jeff Belge, from Henninger High School in Syracuse, is ascending draft boards more quickly than a jet after takeoff from Newark Liberty. Scouts spoke of Philadelphia's “major” interest in Belge over the weekend.

“This kid (Belge) has come out of nowhere,” said one area scout. “He didn’t pitch much over the summer, but the Phillies really like him.

“As for Groome, the next two weeks are huge for him,” another scout said. “He needs to show the layoff didn’t hurt his velocity and command. Velocity is going to be huge for Groome the next couple of weeks.”

The reason Belge seems like a late arrival to the draft party is because he is just recovering from a catastrophic injury.

According to a Syracuse.com report, Belge was skipping stones with a friend when he was 9 years old when a piece of shale ruptured the globe of his right eye. The piece of stone split his eye open. Belge suffered another injury to the same eye while wrestling with a friend last summer in an Atlanta hotel room.

After surgery in Atlanta, Belge sat idle and lost 35 pounds. Before the injury, the St. John’s recruit was considered the No. 2 prospect according to the report. Belge made his season debut on April 13 with a horde of scouts jammed behind the backstop.

“The kid (Belge) is good and apparently getting better,” the first scout said. “I think people want to see if he makes another jump after another start or two.”

NJ.com article includes more on Groome including this:

Groome’s next few starts should be well attended by scouts and MLB officials.

“My thinking is he goes in the top eight,” the first scout said. “He could go No. 1. He could go No. 8. There are a lot of factors involved including the ability to sign him. If it takes a ton of money to sign him, it’s not going to leave much for the No. 3, No. 4 and No. 5 guys.”

[Redeyecat]

Or how about this mock 3.0 from scout.com:

SCOUT'S 2016 MLB MOCK DRAFT, 3.0
1. Philadelphia Phillies - Braxton Garrett, LHP, Florence HS (AL) (JE pick)
Florence HS; Florence, AL
6'3" / 190 lbs
P CLASS 2016

Several times I have expressed that I do not believe that there is a true tier one player in this class. I know this pick is very off board, but I would rather take Garrett and save $3 million to use later in the draft. Garrett put on a show at NHSI. He’s a left-hander with advanced secondary stuff and a chance for three plus pitches. I think the gap in talent is not as great as the cost, so, as a GM, I am going to spread the money around and get the most talent possible. The extra money means I can look at a guy like Jesus Lazardo at the top of round 2. Last year, I had four top-50 players go undrafted. The extra money allows a team to add at least three of those players. I have no idea how much guys cost, so I grabbed the 11th player on my board, thinking I could get him for $2.5 to 3 million.


2. Cincinnati Reds - Jason Groome, LHP, Barnegat HS (NJ) (JB pick)
Barnegat HS; Barnegat, NJ
6'6" / 180 lbs
P 2016

Hard to leave arguably the top player in the draft on the board at 2 when you’re an organization that is rebuilding. I understand that the Reds lack top tier position players in their farm system, but they cannot afford to pass on a talent like Groome with the second pick. A big, tall lefty whose fastball sits comfortably in the mid 90’s and can touch as high as 96 MPH, mixed in with two other plus off-speed pitches (a curve and a slider), Groome has all the makings of being an ace someday....

the rest of the top 11 seems mostly pretty familiar (in order): Rutherford, Senzel, Perez, Puk, Pint, Ray, Lewis, Buddy Reed, Moniak.

[Tom Servo]

The first image that shows up when you Google search Jeff Belge is perhaps the most unflattering photo of anybody, ever.

[11larkin11]

Anyone seen any notes on Perez? I know it's hard to get info out of PR, but everyone seems to end their posts with "unless Perez blows up". It'd sure be nice to see if he's blowing up.

[M2]

Anyone seen any notes on Perez? I know it's hard to get info out of PR, but everyone seems to end their posts with "unless Perez blows up". It'd sure be nice to see if he's blowing up.

We'll know for sure in a few weeks. His bat seemed to be taking a leap forward during some winter showcases.

[Cannon]

If we end up going with one of Belge/Groome/Pint at 2nd I sure as hell hope they manage to convince one of the higher bats to drop to 35 for an above slot bonus. If the rankings are to be believed someone like Lewis, Moniak or even Reed should be in that kind of conversation.

[M2]

If we end up going with one of Belge/Groome/Pint at 2nd I sure as hell hope they manage to convince one of the higher bats to drop to 35 for an above slot bonus. If the rankings are to be believed someone like Lewis, Moniak or even Reed should be in that kind of conversation.

They can have that conversation until the cows come home, but other teams still can draft the kids. You can't plan for, say, Moniak to drop. Even if you agree on what you'd pay him at #35 if he drops, there's still 32 picks in there for other teams. And they aren't going to let the Reds have a prospect they really like because ... conversations. With the draft slotting mechanism, it's exceedingly hard to game the system. If you can go in the top 10, then that's pretty much all the cash you're ever going to get. By now teams know which kids want to go pro and which ones want to go to college. If it's the former, then there's little downside in drafting him if you're willing to pay slot. A HS kid can try to use his college commitment as leverage, but the reality is this probably will be the best offer to do what he wants to do.

[19braves77]

From todays BA chat:

Evan (Boynton Beach): After watching some of the top college arms I came away thinking really good stuff but lacking the ability to command their pitches consistently. At what age does this really start to become a concern for them?

J.J. Cooper: It's a concern with this year's class. There are a lot of guys in this class who scouts are worried could end up in the bullpen. There are few, very few, pitchers in this year's college class who combine potential above-average stuff with repeatable deliveries and solid control.

[BillDoran]

From todays BA chat:

Evan (Boynton Beach): After watching some of the top college arms I came away thinking really good stuff but lacking the ability to command their pitches consistently. At what age does this really start to become a concern for them?

J.J. Cooper: It's a concern with this year's class. There are a lot of guys in this class who scouts are worried could end up in the bullpen. There are few, very few, pitchers in this year's college class who combine potential above-average stuff with repeatable deliveries and solid control.

Not that the Reds are in the market for near-ready arms, but the observation underscores this may not be the best year to be holding the No. 2 pick. I know we're a ways out from the draft, but there are very few prospects screaming their way up the big board.