On Deck: 2016 Draft Discussion Continued

[RedTeamGo!]

Where are the reports coming from that Moniak is going to have the power to hit in the middle of the order?

I said I think, not "Reports are that Lewis, Rutherford, and Moniak all have the potential to middle of the order bats."

I have seen multiple times "experts" questioning Delvin Perez's bat and saying his floor is an excellent fielding SS with a poor bat. I have never seen a report questioning Moniak's bat. Everyone praises it and mentions he learned from the Ted Williams school of hitting. I would prefer that player over Adam Everett 2.0, call me crazy.

[WrongVerb]

Where are the reports coming from that Moniak is going to have the power to hit in the middle of the order?

I thought the reports on him were that he'd had a power surge this year with lots of doubles as well as lots of triples that would have been HRs in most other HS parks.

[Tom Servo]

I said I think, not "Reports are that Lewis, Rutherford, and Moniak all have the potential to middle of the order bats."

I have seen multiple times "experts" questioning Delvin Perez's bat and saying his floor is an excellent fielding SS with a poor bat. I have never seen a report questioning Moniak's bat. Everyone praises it and mentions he learned from the Ted Williams school of hitting. I would prefer that player over Adam Everett 2.0, call me crazy.

Can we have some specifics, RTG? I think we're in a feedback loop here. Some reports were that Perez struggles with some pitch recognition, this turned into "he can't hit and never will" on Redszone.

Here's Fangraphs 11/15:

The slickest leather in this year’s prep class may belong to shortstop Delvin Perez (International Baseball Academy, P.R.; uncommitted), who made the play of Jupiter when he made a diving stop to his left, barrel-rolled and then threw home for the force-out. In addition to the soft glove, he has an above-average arm and solid range that plays up due to advanced instincts, making him the rare high school shortstop who projects to stay at the position. His plate approach is very raw, but he does have projectable hitting tools with present contact ability.

Keith Law 4/16

keithlawVerified account ‏@keithlaw Apr 9
Perez has the best tools, lot of questions about his maturity.

Jim Callis 2/16

It is not out of the question that he could be the first position player drafted. He’s an interesting guy. Probably the best prospect to come out of Puerto Rico since Carlos Correa. He checks off all the defensive boxes. He has a good arm, good hands, speed, and makes difficult plays. I think he’s a little more raw at the plate. He’s 6-foot-3 and is going to get stronger. I’m not saying he’s going to blossom like Carlos Correa, but he’s not just going to be a slap hitting shortstop. He’s a real interesting guy.

These aren't cherry-picking, they are the first things I found when searching Perez's name with these analysts. If you can point to me where experts genuinely question his ability to hit, please do!

[RedTeamGo!]

I thought the reports on him were that he'd had a power surge this year with lots of doubles as well as lots of triples that would have been HRs in most other HS parks.

Yup, and that is what happened. Moniak has had 4 doubles, 12 triples, and 7 home runs this year in 124 plate appearances.

[dougdirt]

I said I think, not "Reports are that Lewis, Rutherford, and Moniak all have the potential to middle of the order bats."

I have seen multiple times "experts" questioning Delvin Perez's bat and saying his floor is an excellent fielding SS with a poor bat. I have never seen a report questioning Moniak's bat. Everyone praises it and mentions he learned from the Ted Williams school of hitting. I would prefer that player over Adam Everett 2.0, call me crazy.

So what is it that you see that makes you think he's got twice the home run power that the experts seem to be suggesting?

And why is it that the experts are so wrong on that, but so right on Moniak's hitting ability and also some of them are right on Delvin Perez?

- - - Updated - - -

Yup, and that is what happened. Moniak has had 4 doubles, 12 triples, and 7 home runs this year in 124 plate appearances.

It's high school baseball. The stats don't really matter, unless they are just terrible stats.

[RedTeamGo!]

So what is it that you see that makes you think he's got twice the home run power that the experts seem to be suggesting?

And why is it that the experts are so wrong on that, but so right on Moniak's hitting ability and also some of them are right on Delvin Perez?

- - - Updated - - -



It's high school baseball. The stats don't really matter, unless they are just terrible stats.

Where did I say anything about home run power? I said middle of the order bat. I view Moniak as a Jacoby Ellsbury type player (before the injuries).

I never said I am a know-it-all on these players, none of us are, including you. That is how I feel about Perez and Moniak.

[dougdirt]

Where did I say anything about home run power? I said middle of the order bat. I view Moniak as a Jacoby Ellsbury type player.

I never said I am a know-it-all on these players, none of us are, including you. That is how I feel about Perez and Moniak.

Because outside of the insane Reds managers, teams don't bat 10 HR hitters in the middle of the order. So, I assumed, I guess incorrectly, that you thought Moniak had 20 HR power.

Sidenote: Jacoby Ellsbury's 2011. WTH?!

Other sidenote: I'm not saying I'm a know it all, or that you aren't. I'm just trying to figure out your stance. If you're going to make a claim that a guy is a middle of the order hitter, and no one else seems to think that, I'm going to try and figure out why you believe that. I'm also going to ask why you have the belief on a guy like Perez when a majority of the information at hand, suggests something a bit different than what you're suggesting.

It's like when I say I think Nick Senzel has 25 HR pop in the bat. If someone says where's that coming from, MLB Pipeline has his power at 50, which is only 15-18 HR, so what are you seeing? Well, then I'm probably going to tell them that I see outstanding bat speed and strength along with an ability to barrel the ball, and that with time that's going to lead to a bunch of power.

Don't get offended. I'm just trying to figure out the rationale behind the comments and why you believe ABC about player 123.

[Vander]

Where did I say anything about home run power? I said middle of the order bat. I view Moniak as a Jacoby Ellsbury type player (before the injuries).

I never said I am a know-it-all on these players, none of us are, including you. That is how I feel about Perez and Moniak.

I think you're just basing your bad impression on what some scouting reports were of Perez last year when he was 16. He has improved his stock since then and answered many of the questions scouts had about his bat.

[Chuckie]

Jim Callis just put a Q&A today. He said he thinks Puk's performance last night makes him the Phillies guy and this was the first part of his answer to a Braves fan asking about Atlanta taking about Kyle Lewis



So it's not Puk, and, seemingly, it's not Lewis. There have been only passing mentions to interest in Senzel and Groome, with little-to-no mentions of Moniak, Rutherford, and Pint.


I think Delvin Perez might be the guy.

Callis is a trainwreck in regard to the Reds' pick this year. Just last week he said Lewis was a near lock to be drafted by the Reds. Now they are apparently not even considering him.

[Vander]

Callis is a trainwreck in regard to the Reds' pick this year. Just last week he said Lewis was a near lock to be drafted by the Reds. Now they are apparently not even considering him.

Lewis has slumped over the past month and his power has decreased. It's not surprising that his stock has dropped, nor is it surprising that Callis would change his mind to reflect that.

[UPRedsFan]

Thanks, appreciate the comments. Just finding it hard to believe the Reds will take a longer term prospect.

I'd guess there will be pressure from ownership to get somebody who can help in the next couple of years some time, rather than four or five years out.

If Moniak is on track for, say, mid- 2019, then I guess he's a possibility at #2. Even a college player could take that long. Moniak sounds like a good all around talent.

Others think timetable won't matter, I do, we'll see how it works out.

I agree KC on the timeline factor. And as a fan I want the pick to be on a faster timeline. Because of the lack of position prospects, and Votto's eventual decline, I think they need this one to be a bat that's ready in 2018 when the pitching should be hitting on all cylinders too.

[dougdirt]

Callis is a trainwreck in regard to the Reds' pick this year. Just last week he said Lewis was a near lock to be drafted by the Reds. Now they are apparently not even considering him.

Sounds like you are confusing yourself, because last week Jim Callis released his mock draft and had the Reds taking Nick Senzel, even with Kyle Lewis on the board. Mentioned Puk and Perez as other options. Didn't mention Lewis at all.

[mth123]

That's the argument, at least. I'm not sure I completely buy it though. Yes, you've got to be more than Johnny Damon to play right field, but if you've got range - you're turning hits into outs. I'm willing to trade a few extra bases on guys testing the arm for extra outs where the guy with more speed made plays that turned hits (like extra-base ones at that) into outs. But, maybe that's just me.

Good defense in general matters in RF. The arm is only the tip of the iceberg. Guys take the extra base far more often because of a guy being slow to the ball or less than sure handed. A guy on first is looking for a crack to get through to end on third when the ball is hit to RF. So an extra second or so because the guy is slow to the ball usually means the guy is standing on 3B. When the ball is hit to LF, the runner is already thinking he can't go because the throw is short. Being slow to the ball or even a bobble may not result in the player advancing. A good defender with an average arm is fine in RF. A poor defender with a cannon will still have more guys advance on him than the good defender will. This is the reason I'm so concerned about RF down the road. The Reds have a bunch of guys who are good enough for LF, but will be run to death in RF. I hope Duvall will prove a pleasant surprise and be able to handle it. I wish they'd start trying him now. Short timer Bruce can play LF

[dabvu2498]

Over 1000. New thread started already.