Draft Walk Up: 2016 Draft Discussion Continued Part III

[Cannon]

I understand, but we already have a minor league system built on pitching with 1 bat who is reaaaaaallllly struggling at AAA right now.

We only have 1 bat?

I mean, we have Peraza and Winker and I wouldn't say either are really struggling. You have Suarez who is still really young and showing power. Then you still have guys like Blandino and Trahan who both hit pretty well, and Stephenson down the line who I think will come around despite his struggles as a 19 year old pro.

But even assuming you think Winker is our only decent bat I ask you again to look at where most of the best hitters in the league are drafted. We're just as likely, I'd imagine, to get a 'legitimate bat' from the 35/43 pick as we are the 2nd if our scouting team is on the ball.

[RedTeamGo!]

What if you believe the best pitcher available has Cy Young potential while the best hitter projects to be maybe a tick above average for his position?

I think that is a loaded question that is unrealistic.

[RedTeamGo!]

We only have 1 bat?

I mean, we have Peraza and Winker and I wouldn't say either are really struggling. You have Suarez who is still really young and showing power. Then you still have guys like Blandino and Trahan who both hit pretty well, and Stephenson down the line who I think will come around despite his struggles as a 19 year old pro.

But even assuming you think Winker is our only decent bat I ask you again to look at where most of the best hitters in the league are drafted. We're just as likely, I'd imagine, to get a 'legitimate bat' from the 35/43 pick as we are the 2nd if our scouting team is on the ball.

I actually like Peraza, but he doesn't profile as anything but a 1-2 hole hitter ceiling. I am talking middle of the order bats.

Winker is our best hitting prospect by far and is currently sitting on a .342 slugging percentage through 2 months at AAA. That is awful.

[Tom Servo]

I'd say you're looking at a different draft class if that were the case. Nobody has distinguish himself above the others from what I've seen. If there isn't a clear cut choice I'd take the hitter this year.

It's not what you or I believe but what the Reds believe. If they think AJ Puk is an ace and that the bats are nothing special, obviously they should take Puk.

My preference is a bat, no doubt. But you can't tie your own hands behind your back and declare you're absolutely not taking a pitcher.

[redsman2007]

It's not what you or I believe but what the Reds believe. If they think AJ Puk is an ace and that the bats are nothing special, obviously they should take Puk.

My preference is a bat, no doubt. But you can't tie your own hands behind your back and declare you're absolutely not taking a pitcher.

I agree with this. I just don't think they have come to the conclusion that Puk is head and shoulders above everyone else.

I'm ready for the draft to get here though. I think we've had enough speculation to last a lifetime.

[Tom Servo]

I think that is a loaded question that is unrealistic.

I don't see how so. What if the Giants decided in 2007 that between Tim Lincecum and Jonathan Sanchez as their top prospects with young Matt Cain already in the rotation and an incredibly old main roster that they needed a bat and took Matt Dominguez or Beau Mills instead of Madison Bumgarner? What if the Reds think Senzel is a Beau Mills and Puk is a Bumgarner?

[podgejeff_]

For those of you who are bashing Buckley and what he's done, I'd enjoy something comparing what he's done, over the the first three rounds to some other scouting directors around baseball. I haven't done an in depth look or anything, but I think the rate at which he's drafted players and turned them into big leaguers is probably going to fair well with just about anyone else. What he's missing is that true superstar in his drafts. Anyone up for the task?

True superstars are pretty rare anyways. How many true superstars are there in baseball? 30? And not all of them came from the draft. Plenty of them are international signings. I think you can argue the Reds have had 3 in the past ten years. One is Joey Votto, who was here before Buckley. Johnny Cueto and Aroldis Chapman could both potentially qualify and they're international signings.

That being said, he's drafted some very good players. Todd Frazier (who a lot of people passed up on before he got to us). Devin Mesoraco could have been one of the best catchers in baseball if not for this ridiculous injury streak. Brad Boxberger has been a really good reliever. Justin Turner and Yasmani Grandal are both pretty good starters. Robert Stephenson still has star potential and is still one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. Mike Leake skipped the minors entirely and was a solid #3 from day 1.

But looking at our drafts he's only really had two drafts that haven't produced more than 1 significant player, 08 and 10. Those just also happen to be the years where our first round pick is currently playing for another team. Along with our two first round picks from 09 that were either traded or have already hit free agency due to skipping the minors entirely. And I don't think it's a coincidence that these top players from three straight drafts are all playing elsewhere, that would be turning 28 currently, and we have this window of losing that's occurring right now. Not saying those four players would change our current fortunes, but when we traded them/rushed them we were trading the future for a shot at the 2010-2014 window. And now the future is here.

[Kc61]

I will never understand this logic. Every organization needs both pitching and batting/fielding talent. The Reds currently have a lot of young pitching talent and no batting talent. The best hitting prospect the Reds have is having a season at AAA where he is displaying no power. The Reds need bats. It's so obvious.

But simply drafting a college or high school hitter may not be the best way to get that power.

The Reds got Mat Latos, not by drafting a pitcher, but by drafting Yonder Alonso and Grandal and trading them for a young, established, controllable Latos.

You have to get the best value at #2. Even if it's a pitcher.

Puk is near to big league ready, he has great stuff, he has played big time competition, has the projectable size. They can develop him; trade him; or use him and trade others.

Sometimes the best approach is not the most direct approach. I don't see a superstar offensive player in this draft. So I'll be delighted if the Reds take Puk.

[UPRedsFan]

I understand, but we already have a minor league system built on pitching with 1 bat who is reaaaaaallllly struggling at AAA right now.

No he just had a little slump. He's on a 5 game hitting streak now. He'll be alright.

I'd like to draft a bat also. But if they are convinced Puk can become a TOR starter then I'm good with that too.

[kaldaniels]

I don't mind say, continuing to drafting pitching if that is the best talent available.

However, if the plan is to parlay a surplus of pitching talent into bats...you are putting yourself at the mercy of the market, for better or for worse. You may have to sell the pitching for 75 cents on the dollar at some point if you need bats. Now you could do the opposite, sure.

But if you can't find an adequate trade partner when you really need to make a deal...that's on you. And I'm pretty much ok with that, but I just don't take the trade market as a given.

[tcnoles1]

Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo did a podcast last night where they went through the top 5 picks. Both agreed that the top 2 players on the Reds board are Puk and Senzel. Since they both expect Puk to now go one, they agreed Senzel was likely the Reds pick. They weren't sure who the Reds would take if both Puk and Senzel were on the board. Interestingly enough, they both thought Senzel could go 3 if he got past the Reds.

An additional note, they said Joey Wentz is a guy both Cincy and Atlanta could be in on with their second pick. He is a guy who is likely to drop due to sign ability issues that they would be interested in.

[Kc61]

I don't mind say, continuing to drafting pitching if that is the best talent available.

However, if the plan is to parlay a surplus of pitching talent into bats...you are putting yourself at the mercy of the market, for better or for worse. You may have to sell the pitching for 75 cents on the dollar at some point if you need bats. Now you could do the opposite, sure.

But if you can't find an adequate trade partner when you really need to make a deal...that's on you. And I'm pretty much ok with that, but I just don't take the trade market as a given.

And if you draft a hitter, keep and develop him, and he doesn't work out. It's also "on you." Draft and hold has risks, draft and trade has risks.

I guess the difference is that the draft is one decision. The draft and trade is two decisions. So more chance for a decision that proves wrong. True.

But where I come out is you need to take the highest value player. Including ability, projection, health, age, competition level, etc.

If the player with the most value is Puk, you take him. Worse comes to worse, if the trade market is tight, you have one more excellent pitching prospect. If you judge his value correctly, eventually it will pay off.

[WrongVerb]

Senzel/Wentz would be a very nice first and second Reds picks.

[kaldaniels]

And if you draft a hitter, keep and develop him, and he doesn't work out. It's also "on you." Draft and hold has risks, draft and trade from depth has risks.

I guess the difference is that the draft is one decision. The draft and trade is two decisions. So more chance for a decision that proves wrong. True.

But where I come out is you need to take the highest value player. Including ability, projection, health, age, competition level, etc.

If the player with the most value is Puk, you take him. Worse comes to worse, if the trade market is tight, you have another excellent pitching prospect. If you judge his value correctly, eventually it will pay off.

I agree with this.

Sometimes I just see the "well you can always trade your pitching surplus for hitting" POV bandied about way too flippantly.

[mth123]

Here's the thing, people are pooh, poohing the idea of taking senzel because they see him as Jeff Cirillo, and I get that to a point. OTOH, I have serious doubts that the Reds will be able to trade any of their arms for anyone like Jeff Cirillo unless he's a vet with a decent sized contract attached. These prospect for prospect deals don't happen much. Maybe they could deal somebody like Desclafani or Iglesias after they have a couple years under their belt, but I don't think they'll get a big time prospect hitter for any of their pitches who haven't established themselves in the big leagues. Right now, the Reds don't have any pitchers who have established themselves including Desclafani, Iglesias and a returning from TJ Homer Bailey. Guys aren't established until they've shown their effectiveness can hold up after 300 innings or so in a big league rotation. with TJ, Bailey is starting back at zero.