Nick Senzel

[UKFlounder]

Is he a possible lead off hitter? I know his speed may not be typical and his power could develop, but if it stays as is, would he be a candidate to lead off? Or is he more of a 2 or 3-hole hitter?

[WrongVerb]

OK what is RZ's best gues when we will see Senzel in the majors? Sometime in 2017? 2018? Beyond that?? I am hoping sometime next season. It seems many of these better college hitters make a quick rise to the majors. But that might be too much hoping.

Cup o' coffee in Sept '17 and establish himself sometime in '18. First full season in '19.

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Is he a possible lead off hitter? I know his speed may not be typical and his power could develop, but if it stays as is, would he be a candidate to lead off? Or is he more of a 2 or 3-hole hitter?

He'd be a fantastic 2-hole hitter behind Peraza/Hamilton and in front of Votto.

[Puffy]

I don't think he'll ever develop enough power to make that comparison worthwhile. I think he's a teens HR guy who might crack 20+ in a career year. I'm hoping his floor is Joe Randa and his ceiling is Cirillo. Lansford fits in there somewhere in the middle.

I loathe Joe Randa.

[Caveat Emperor]

I could see a summer of 2017 arrival if the bat is as polished as advertised.

I think people are seriously underestimating the amount of time it takes to acclimate most college hitters to playing outside of college.

Ryan Zimmerman and the like are the absolute exceptions to the rule.

[Tom Servo]

I think people are seriously underestimating the amount of time it takes to acclimate most college hitters to playing outside of college.

Ryan Zimmerman and the like are the absolute exceptions to the rule.

I'm not counting on it, I have no problem taking him slow, but I don't think it's out of the question. To be clear, when I say summer, I mean something like August, not June.

I look at Dansby Swanson, last year's #1 pick and polished hitter out of the SEC, who is expected to join the Braves this year. That's what I'm basing the possibility of a 2017 debut on.

[Benihana]

He'd be a fantastic 2-hole hitter behind Taylor Trammell and in front of Votto.

Modified that for ya

[Benihana]

Any guesses on what he signs for? Would love it if they could get him for less than $5.5M

[Rojo]

Senzel seems to be getting faster every day.

I'm not as excited by this pick, but I get it. I was leaning with either Moniak or Perez. Moniak wasn't available obviously. And with Perez slipping, I'd be tempted to see if I could pick him up at #35 (alas, no, but close). So Senzel seems like the least warty of the bats left. Ok.

I wouldn't bother with him at Billings either -- unless you really want to get jazzed about gaudy numbers.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I look at Dansby Swanson, last year's #1 pick and polished hitter out of the SEC, who is expected to join the Braves this year. That's what I'm basing the possibility of a 2017 debut on.

Yeah, if you go back throughout the draft, the first college bat taken has debuted pretty consistently some time in his first full season as a professional. (Or second full season, when the draft was held much later in the calendar year.)

Since we turned to the new century, only Joe Borchard (3rd year), Drew Meyer (who?), Rickie Weeks (3rd year), Evan Longoria (3rd year), and Kris Bryant (3rd year) began after their second season. The last two of those were for monetary concerns, so it's questionable whether they should even count.

Interestingly, almost all of these guys began in Advanced A. Hopefully, the Reds notice.

[WrongVerb]

I'm not counting on it, I have no problem taking him slow, but I don't think it's out of the question. To be clear, when I say summer, I mean something like August, not June.

I look at Dansby Swanson, last year's #1 pick and polished hitter out of the SEC, who is expected to join the Braves this year. That's what I'm basing the possibility of a 2017 debut on.

Trae Turner was drafted in '14 and made his debut last season. He's played some in the majors this year as well.

[WrongVerb]

Modified that for ya

Well, I was thinking when Trammell arrives, he and Winker would bat in front of Senzel, with Votto 4th. So there!

[Bourgeois Zee]

Trae Turner was drafted in '14 and made his debut last season. He's played some in the majors this year as well.

Lots more examples than just the first college bat.

But I'm trying to compare apples to apples for the most part.

[M2]

I think people are seriously underestimating the amount of time it takes to acclimate most college hitters to playing outside of college.

Ryan Zimmerman and the like are the absolute exceptions to the rule.

Yet Senzel was drafted largely on the notion that he is an exception to the rule.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Yet Senzel was drafted largely on the notion that he is an exception to the rule.

Again, the first college bat taken each year (since 2000) has proven to be not only a low floor (one true "bust" among them) but relatively high ceilinged as well.

[Rojo]

Mentions of Swanson and Turner in this thread have reminded me that both switched hands recently. And the Reds got Pereza. Grrrrrrrr.

If ever Princeton's "Challenge Thy Bats" comes into play, it's with Senzel. Let's kick the tires on that polish, post haste.