Luis Robert - How much should the Reds offer?

[klw]

After 36 pages, I have to ask can we trade Eric Bedard to the White Sox in exchange for Robert?

[cincyinco]

After 36 pages, I have to ask can we trade Eric Bedard to the White Sox in exchange for Robert?

Only if we can rework his contract and send him back to the minors like we did with Wily Mo.

[OGB]

He likes me though.

Keith Law likes vaseline on toast.

[Hoosier Red]

I am relieved the Reds didn't sign Robert. As I've stated before, we are one of the teams who gets less revenue. We can't do the things other clubs do. We can't take huge gambles on a player like Robert. The way it was set up, if he was a big star, we would break even. Anything else and we lose. There was no "upside".

I'd say if he were an above-average, but not All-Star, you'd break even. More than that and you probably come out slightly ahead. But, he'd need to be an MVP guy for you to really come out with a really good deal on it.

That's what I was curious about. If the range of value goes from bust who doesn't make it to the majors at one low percentage to Hall of Famer on the other side, it seems that he'd most likely end up like Yasiel Puig.
If the Reds paid $50 Million for Yasiel Puig to come up next year, would that have been worthwhile? I'm not sure.

- - - Updated - - -

He likes me though.

That's not nothing.
It's close, but it's not nothing.

[dougdirt]

That's what I was curious about. If the range of value goes from bust who doesn't make it to the majors at one low percentage to Hall of Famer on the other side, it seems that he'd most likely end up like Yasiel Puig.
If the Reds paid $50 Million for Yasiel Puig to come up next year, would that have been worthwhile? I'm not sure.

- - - Updated - - -



That's not nothing.
It's close, but it's not nothing.

Yasiel Puig was worth over $70M the first two years, so yes, it probably would have been worth it.

[JaxRed]

Yasiel Puig was worth over $70M the first two years, so yes, it probably would have been worth it.

That assumes two things.

1) That the whole WAR/$$ thing is accurate. I have my doubts. Seems like everytime I hear someone justify a contract based on WAR it turns out to be a crappy deal.

2) And this is more important. It assumes that the $$ are equally important to the teams. They are not. JUst like a millionaire would probably not bother to pick up a quarter on the street when a homeless guy would. $50 Million is WAY more valuable to Reds than Dodgers.

[dougdirt]

That assumes two things.

1) That the whole WAR/$$ thing is accurate. I have my doubts. Seems like everytime I hear someone justify a contract based on WAR it turns out to be a crappy deal.

2) And this is more important. It assumes that the $$ are equally important to the teams. They are not. JUst like a millionaire would probably not bother to pick up a quarter on the street when a homeless guy would. $50 Million is WAY more valuable to Reds than Dodgers.

Don't confuse past WAR production with future contracts.

[JaxRed]

Don't confuse past WAR production with future contracts.

I wasn't.

[dougdirt]

I wasn't.

Your comment that someone justifies a contract based on WAR, then it turns out to be a crappy contract seems to suggest that you were using past WAR for future production.

[Sea Ray]

Your comment that someone justifies a contract based on WAR, then it turns out to be a crappy contract seems to suggest that you were using past WAR for future production.

Past WAR has to be a factor in determining future production. If you disagree then I expect to hear you pipe up whenever a RZer is challenged by a comment like "on what basis are you projecting those numbers for..."

[Bourgeois Zee]

Past WAR has to be a factor in determining future production. If you disagree then I expect to hear you pipe up whenever a RZer is challenged by a comment like "on what basis are you projecting those numbers for..."

Nah.

It's about scouting what might happen over the years of the contract.

Otherwise, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins would have been given a boatload of cash this off-season.

(Pssst, they weren't.)

[Sea Ray]

Nah.

It's about scouting what might happen over the years of the contract.

Otherwise, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins would have been given a boatload of cash this off-season.

(Pssst, they weren't.)

I would say Ryan Howard's past did play a role in his 2017 contract. In 2015 and 2016 he had a negative WAR. That doesn't equate to a boatload of cash

[WrongVerb]

I found this interesting...

MLB Pipeline
@MLBPipeline

Robert's first two @MiLB seasons were shortened by by knee, ankle and thumb injuries, and a hamstring strain sidelined him early in the @MLBazFallLeague. Video, scouting report & more on the #WhiteSox No. 4 prospect (#MLB No. 40): atmlb.com/2T6NKCg

Scott Merkin @scottmerkin

Robert dealing with jammed thumb

6:48pm · 5 Mar 2019

Injury prone big time.