2017 Draft Discussion III

[William]

Limiting it the "top 5 picks" does that as well. Kershaw was #7 overall in 2006 but the first high school pitcher taken.

Kershaw is also left-handed...

[Vander]

I went back and looked at all the RHP high school prospects drafted in the top 5 since 2000 and it is an underwhelming list.

2001 Dewon Brazelton #3
2001 Gavin Floyd #4
2002 Chris Gruler #3
2002 Clint Everts #5
2004 Mark Rogers #5
2009 Matt Hobgood #5
2010 Jameson Tailion #2
2011 Dylan Bundy #4
2013 Kohl Stewart #4
2014 Tyler Kolek #2
2016 Ian Anderson #3
2016 Riley Pint #4

Now the list is a little skewed because in 2003 Uber Genius Billy Beane said high school players were the devil and there was a huge void from 2002 to 2009, but outside of Gavin Floyd nobody has done much of anything. I have read the scouting reports on Greene and they keep pointing out 102, athletic, but pretty muted "maybes" around his secondary stuff. Bundy threw 100 in high school and had much more glowing reviews on his secondary stuff. Kolek and Pint also hit triple digits and I think Tallion did as well but cannot verify it. I guess the point is there is a huge risk in taking Greene and I don't think it is the same slam dunk a lot of other people do. I wish you could trade picks in MLB. Ideal year to trade back.

Here's a list of some notable high school pitchers drafted in the 1st round.

2002 - Zack Greinke, Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels, Matt Cain
2003 - John Danks, Chad Billingsly
2004 - Homer Bailey, Phil Hughes, Gio Gonzalez
2006 - Clayton Kershaw
2007 - Madison Bumgarner, Rick Porcello
2008 - Gerrit Cole (didn't sign), Jake Odorizzi
2009 - Zack Wheeler, Shelby Miller
2010 - Jameson Taillon, Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard
2011 - Jose Fernandez
2012 - Lance McCullers

Why you cut your list off at the top 5 is somewhat arbitrary. You could argue that teams have picked the wrong high schoolers in the past, but to say that high school pitchers never succeed is just downright wrong.

[Tom Servo]

Kershaw is also left-handed...

Whoops, I whiffed on the RHP distinction.

[Boston Red]

For a 3rd/4th round guy, Zac Lowther struck out 9 and gave up zero earned runs in 7 innings against a really good St. John's offense in Omaha today.

[RedTeamGo!]

I want no part of Bubba Thompson in the first two rounds. His plate discipline worries me - he had 18 walks and 15 K's in high school this season. An elite high school hitter should be far better than 1:1 in the BB/K department. I'm holding out hope for Jordon Adell or DrewWaters at 32.

I could be completely off base, but wouldn't it be kind of weird if an elite high school hitter was just constantly walking? What is Bubba Thompson's batting average? Does he hit for power? I'm guessing with HS hitters scouts are moreso looking at tools and projectability.

My friend's little brother was a pretty good high school catcher. He led the district in walks. He didn't even sniff a scholarship or anything.

[RedTeamGo!]

Nm

[dougdirt]

I could be completely off base, but wouldn't it be kind of weird if an elite high school hitter was just constantly walking? What is Bubba Thompson's batting average? Does he hit for power? I'm guessing with HS hitters scouts are moreso looking at tools and projectability.

My friend's little brother was a pretty good high school catcher. He led the district in walks. He didn't even sniff a scholarship or anything.

By comparison, guys like Royce Lewis, Jo Adell and other top end high school guys, they have about 3 times as many walks as strikeouts, and under 10 strikeouts for the year.

[RedTeamGo!]

By comparison, guys like Royce Lewis, Jo Adell and other top end high school guys, they have about 3 times as many walks as strikeouts, and under 10 strikeouts for the year.

Interesting. Is there a history of k/bb rates in HS like Thompson's being a bad sign?

Are you in agreement with OBM?

[dougdirt]

Interesting. Is there a history of k/bb rates in HS like Thompson's being a bad sign?

Are you in agreement with OBM?

I have no idea. We don't have statistical databases for high school guys. Heck, we don't even have stats for a lot of high school guys playing today, much less 5 years ago.

But, generally speaking, I'd guess it's not a good sign for high schoolers that are striking out more than they are walking. But, as always, I need more information on the specific player, too.

[Benihana]

I want no part of Bubba Thompson in the first two rounds. His plate discipline worries me - he had 18 walks and 15 K's in high school this season. An elite high school hitter should be far better than 1:1 in the BB/K department. I'm holding out hope for Jordon Adell or DrewWaters at 32.

I too would prefer Adell or Waters over Thompson. However, I'd have no problem with them taking Bubba at 38, or even 32 if most of the other guys were off the board. I'm thirsty for Waters.

[dougdirt]

I'm thirsty for Waters.

This may be the creepiest thing ever typed on Redszone.

[tcnoles1]

McKay is pitching right now on NESN for anyone who gets it. Looks good early.

[Tom Servo]

Eric Longenhagen
@longenhagen

Brendan McKay 90-93 in the first. Mostly 2s and 3s, a 94 on one gun. Late tail, command.

Brendan McKay grand slam into the upper deck in RF

[OnBaseMachine]

33 pitch inning for McKay in the third, heater losing zip, now 90-91.

https://twitter.com/longenhagen/stat...99091279388672

PASS

[RiverRat13]

33 pitch inning for McKay in the third, heater losing zip, now 90-91.

https://twitter.com/longenhagen/stat...99091279388672

PASS

Screw it, I'm all in on McKay.

That way if he does turn in to Cliff Lee, I'll be the only one on here who said they liked Brandon McKay