Reds Sign Jose Garcia

[kaldaniels]

I'm currently listening to Dick Williams chat with Lance McAlister about Jose Garcia. He says the Reds first learned about Garcia while scouting Luis Robert. The Reds view him as adding another first round draft pick; Reds scouts projected him to go 11th or 12th overall in the 2017 draft. Williams says the Reds worked Garcia out at 2B, SS, 3B, and CF and he impressed at each position. The Reds love his athleticism and bat and think he'll really take off once he enters their workout regime. Apparently, the kid has never lifted a weight. Sounds promising!

So question to anyone: If he is as "good" as a mid 1st round pick, why didn't teams bid more for him? A mid 1st round pick has been shown to be worth more well more than 10 M dollars. (On the average...certainly a wide range of outcomes possible).

I think it's great we got him...but if he projects that well, I'm surprised how cheap he was.

[dougdirt]

So question to anyone: If he is as "good" as a mid 1st round pick, why didn't teams bid more for him? A mid 1st round pick has been shown to be worth more well more than 10 M dollars. (On the average...certainly a wide range of outcomes possible).

I think it's great we got him...but if he projects that well, I'm surprised how cheap he was.

Well, we've got to remember that if most of baseball signed him, it would put them in the penalty. And that, combined with the cash, may have made this deal look a little different than just "a mid 1st rounder is worth more than 10M". For the teams that are over the pool already, we know at least two teams were in on him (Reds and Cardinals). We also don't know how many other teams that were over already, had cash left. Perhaps they've gone to their limits already by signing all of the players that they did. Have to remember, we are a week away from the end of this signing period - I'd guess many teams have used up all of their budgeted money.

At the same time, I don't think Alfredo was worth $7M (less) and that it's hilarious that Vladimir Gutierrez was only $4.75M (should have been more). So, who knows exactly how this stuff winds up how it does sometimes. But seriously, can you imagine if Vladimir Gutierrez were eligible for this current draft? How is that guy not one of the first three guys taken?

That's my two cents.

[Benihana]

Would y'all rather have the Cuban trio we signed or Luis Robert?


I think I'd pick our trio based on my belief Vlad Guerrero will end up being the real deal.

I think this is a very interesting question. If the money was the same, it's pretty close. Considering Robert would cost $25M more after the penalty, I'd probably take our three. I think AlfRod was a total waste but I'm excited about Gutierrez and Garcia. Sometimes there is some safety in numbers with these international guys.

[Benihana]

Well, we've got to remember that if most of baseball signed him, it would put them in the penalty. And that, combined with the cash, may have made this deal look a little different than just "a mid 1st rounder is worth more than 10M". For the teams that are over the pool already, we know at least two teams were in on him (Reds and Cardinals). We also don't know how many other teams that were over already, had cash left. Perhaps they've gone to their limits already by signing all of the players that they did. Have to remember, we are a week away from the end of this signing period - I'd guess many teams have used up all of their budgeted money.

At the same time, I don't think Alfredo was worth $7M (less) and that it's hilarious that Vladimir Gutierrez was only $4.75M (should have been more). So, who knows exactly how this stuff winds up how it does sometimes. But seriously, can you imagine if Vladimir Gutierrez were eligible for this current draft? How is that guy not one of the first three guys taken?

That's my two cents.

Doug, do you really believe Gutierrez is on par with Kyle Wright and Hunter Greene?

[RedTeamGo!]

Doug, do you really believe Gutierrez is on par with Kyle Wright and Hunter Greene?

Not Doug, but I'm getting the sense Wright is getting a lot of late helium and is being overrated.

I certainly think he's on par with McKay or Gore.

[dougdirt]

Doug, do you really believe Gutierrez is on par with Kyle Wright and Hunter Greene?

I think that Hunter Greene is an outstanding prospect, but greatly being overrated nationally. He's got a big fastball, but his secondary stuff as it sits today, sucks. I'll take Vladimir Gutierrez all day. He doesn't throw quite as hard, but he throws with above-average velocity as a starter, with movement, and quality offspeed stuff. You put him in college and he's arguably the top college pitcher in the game right now. He's a month older than Kyle Wright. He's in Advanced-A with a lower walk rate, and a higher strikeout rate than what Kyle Wright is posting against college kids. And unlike RTG, I have Kyle Wright #1 on my board and I'm not really willing to have the conversation that anyone else should be ranked ahead of him that's in this draft class (I think some guys could eventually be better, but right now, with the combo of what he is today versus the safety of that, he's an easy #1 guy on the board for me).

[RedTeamGo!]

I think that Hunter Greene is an outstanding prospect, but greatly being overrated nationally. He's got a big fastball, but his secondary stuff as it sits today, sucks. I'll take Vladimir Gutierrez all day. He doesn't throw quite as hard, but he throws with above-average velocity as a starter, with movement, and quality offspeed stuff. You put him in college and he's arguably the top college pitcher in the game right now. He's a month older than Kyle Wright. He's in Advanced-A with a lower walk rate, and a higher strikeout rate than what Kyle Wright is posting against college kids. And unlike RTG, I have Kyle Wright #1 on my board and I'm not really willing to have the conversation that anyone else should be ranked ahead of him that's in this draft class (I think some guys could eventually be better, but right now, with the combo of what he is today versus the safety of that, he's an easy #1 guy on the board for me).

Man, those are some strong words about Greene. Also, wonderful to hear about Vlad.

Why do you keep scaring me about pitching prospects?! Now I want nothing to do with Hunter Greene. Gun to your head: Gore or Greene?

[kaldaniels]

Here's what I'm seeing Doug -

- You refuse to have a discussion with anyone that Greene should be #1 - ok, that's your right but you usually debate stuff like that...just unusual you put it off limits

- You say Hunter Greene's secondary stuff sucks - I have not seen that from many people at all...certainly not that harsh

[dougdirt]

Man, those are some strong words about Greene. Also, wonderful to hear about Vlad.

Why do you keep scaring me about pitching prospects?! Now I want nothing to do with Hunter Greene. Gun to your head: Gore or Greene?

Gun to my head? Check out my website in 33 minutes and you can see my Top 10 Draft Board.

I'll be happy if they take Hunter Greene, even if Wright is also available. Hunter Greene is an excellent prospect worthy of the #2 pick in the draft. I just think Wright is better, but I *GET* the argument for Greene being a higher ranked prospect. I don't agree with it, but I can make sense of it.

[dougdirt]

Here's what I'm seeing Doug -

- You refuse to have a discussion with anyone that Greene should be #1 - ok, that's your right but you usually debate stuff like that...just unusual you put it off limits

- You say Hunter Greene's secondary stuff sucks - I have not seen that from many people at all...certainly not that harsh

I'll discuss it all day long, but I don't see anyone convincing me that Kyle Wright is not currently the best guy in this class. As it stands now, his stuff stacks up with everyone, and he's more polished than almost everyone - and those who are as polished, their stuff doesn't stack up with his.

As for Greene - right now, he's simply not showing a quality secondary pitch with any sort of consistency. While some believe his slider's got enough to work with in the future, we've seen more than a few reports that don't say that. And well, he's rarely showing a change up. As I said, right now, his secondary stuff kind of sucks. You can dream on that fastball, and teams, generally, can teach the breaking ball of choice.

[Benihana]

I think that Hunter Greene is an outstanding prospect, but greatly being overrated nationally. He's got a big fastball, but his secondary stuff as it sits today, sucks. I'll take Vladimir Gutierrez all day. He doesn't throw quite as hard, but he throws with above-average velocity as a starter, with movement, and quality offspeed stuff. You put him in college and he's arguably the top college pitcher in the game right now. He's a month older than Kyle Wright. He's in Advanced-A with a lower walk rate, and a higher strikeout rate than what Kyle Wright is posting against college kids. And unlike RTG, I have Kyle Wright #1 on my board and I'm not really willing to have the conversation that anyone else should be ranked ahead of him that's in this draft class (I think some guys could eventually be better, but right now, with the combo of what he is today versus the safety of that, he's an easy #1 guy on the board for me).

I'm pretty surprised that you're that high on Vladimir Gutierrez. You're basically implying you think he's the second best prospect in the Reds system, and top 25ish in all of baseball?

[dougdirt]

I'm pretty surprised that you're that high on Vladimir Gutierrez. You're basically implying you think he's the second best prospect in the Reds system, and top 25ish in all of baseball?

Pretty much, yes.

[membengal]

Super happy with this signing, like that the team is spending the money and I do like that he apparently has a bat that may someday play at several places on the field.

[kaldaniels]

Pretty much, yes.

Bold take. If that's your thinking I won't argue it. I love a strong prospect opinion outside of the norm.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I think that Hunter Greene is an outstanding prospect, but greatly being overrated nationally.

Isn't this a common occurrence with prognosticators, in that they often overrate prospects initially?

(Moniak, Puk, Ray, and others from last season would seem to be a prime example.)