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Thread: Official 2017 Draft Day Thread - Day 1

  1. #451
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    Re: Official 2017 Draft Day Thread - Day 1

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    So you'd have preferred to take Kyle Wright over Hunter Greene? Or would Jeter Downs have gotten the boot?
    The Red's first round slot is 1.5 million more than the Braves. I don't expect that Greene is getting more than 1.5 million more than Wright. Downs went about where he was projected if not a little higher so I expect him to go around slot. It is not like last year with Trammel who was projected to go mid first and fell into the 30's. Also, the Reds have $125k more in their 2nd round slot than the Braves. They could have juggled it to sign Waters. Other that Senzel last year the Reds do not have a good track record with drafting colleges bats early in the last five years.


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  3. #452
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    Re: Official 2017 Draft Day Thread - Day 1

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    I think TJ Friedl is much more the "legitimate CF option if Hamilton fails to find his bat" at this point. But even he is 2-3 years away.
    Friedl, Siri, Beltre all holding their own in Dayton. All the same age as Fairchild and all have the ability to play CF.

  4. #453
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Official 2017 Draft Day Thread - Day 1

    Quote Originally Posted by Musketeer22 View Post
    You do realize there's a reason the scouts at BA are working at BA and not for a ML team, right?...... Most MLB teams laugh at those rankings.
    To be clear there are zero scouts working at Baseball America. They have journalists who talk to scouts. And while talking to scouts is a very good thing, and I absolutely, without a doubt, believe that BA does things better than anyone else when it comes to this stuff (which could be due to the fact that they actually pay their people well enough to retain them for more than a year that results in constant turnover that you see everywhere else), let me lay out this example:

    BA writer gets out his rolodex and starts making calls on Player ABC. He calls 10 scouts about Player ABC. He's going to probably get 5 strong, different opinions, then a few guys that are luke-warm, then maybe two that are pretty much in line with each other.

    That writer then has to take all of that information and try to form 1 opinion and where the player ranks. Depending on who you listen to, and all of the opinions are given to you by professional scouts, you may rank a guy in the draft 10th. Or 110th.

    Look at Jordon Adell. If you believe Keith Law, he's the 50th best guy in this draft. If you believe BA, he's what, 7th? Keith Law, I can promise you, isn't the only guy out there getting paid for his baseball opinions that thinks Adell is the 50th (or worse) player in this draft and some of those guys with that opinion are being paid by MLB teams. There's probably a low number of them, but they exist.

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  6. #454
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    Re: Official 2017 Draft Day Thread - Day 1

    This guy gives our 3 day 1 picks an A+, A+ and A! Must be true!

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...s-and-analysis

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    REDREAD (06-13-2017)

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    Re: Official 2017 Draft Day Thread - Day 1

    Quote Originally Posted by DBFROMNVA View Post
    The Red's first round slot is 1.5 million more than the Braves. I don't expect that Greene is getting more than 1.5 million more than Wright. Downs went about where he was projected if not a little higher so I expect him to go around slot. It is not like last year with Trammel who was projected to go mid first and fell into the 30's. Also, the Reds have $125k more in their 2nd round slot than the Braves. They could have juggled it to sign Waters. Other that Senzel last year the Reds do not have a good track record with drafting colleges bats early in the last five years.
    Maybe they don't like Waters that much, based on watching him play.

  9. #456
    We are the angry mob cincyinco's Avatar
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    Re: Official 2017 Draft Day Thread - Day 1

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Everyone seems to acknowledge that the "lists" out there are just that, and that teams will have widely differing opinions on those players, and often rightfully so.

    A valid reason why a highly listed player may drop is simply because the lists are wrong, and the real scouts employed by major league teams think otherwise.

    I cringe every time someone posts that a pick was a reach simply because BA had him rated lower on their rankings.

    let
    s face it, most of us simply look at the list and hope that the Reds pick the next player in line, because that is all we have to go on.

    Fairchild was rated pretty high on a number of lists. I'm not sure why many are looking at the worse one and assuming the worst.

    I'm pretty sure Greene did not go #1 because of his bonus demands. I think we should be thankful the Reds did not cheap out and went for the best player in the draft. If that means they have to take a few "signability picks", so be it, even though we don't know that yet.

    The Reds proved last year they have a pretty good grasp of the financial ramifications of the early round picks. At this stage, I'm going to trust that they understand the process more than us. It is possible that they passed on Drew waters because they already knew they couldn't fit him into the budget. I assume if that is true, they really wanted Greene, and weren't willing to take a cheaper player at #2 to hope they could get better talent later on. They really have no idea what may be available at #32, so it's likely better to take the best player in the draft at #2, rather than hope some good talent falls to #32 and #38 who they can sign because they saved some money at #2.
    I wouldn't disagree with anything you said, and I would especially agree with the part in bold.. thats precisely my point. Kind of means you agree with me that Fairchild may have been more based on signabilty. They have to make their budget work. That might have been a much tougher task with the selection of Drew Waters.
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  10. #457
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    Re: Official 2017 Draft Day Thread - Day 1

    [QUOTE=DocRed;3654172]This guy gives our 3 day 1 picks an A+, A+ and A! Must be true!

    [url]http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2715096

    For the record, drafting Waters would have given them 3 A+'s, LOL.

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    REDREAD (06-13-2017)

  12. #458
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    Re: Official 2017 Draft Day Thread - Day 1

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Maybe they don't like Waters that much, based on watching him play.
    That is certainly possible but we had heard from people who talk to scouts that they liked Waters and Carlson. My response was to the poster who said that Reds could not do what the Braves did which I do not buy.

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    Re: Official 2017 Draft Day Thread - Day 1

    Hearing Waters will sign with the Braves for $2M. That seems relatively affordable...

    Maybe Buckley legitimately liked Fairchild better than Waters? I wouldn't be surprised, considering his affinity for college guys like Fairchild's profile. Let's hope he's right, and the "industry consensus" is wrong. It's certainly possible, and I'm liking it better if Fairchild really is a surefire CF, as opposed to a tweener like Ervin and Gelalich.
    Go BLUE!!!

  14. #460
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    Re: Official 2017 Draft Day Thread - Day 1

    Quote Originally Posted by DBFROMNVA View Post
    My response was to the poster who said that Reds could not do what the Braves did which I do not buy.
    I mean yeah they could, but is it prudent? I'm genuinely curious, can you find an example of a team using 3 top 40 picks all on high school players in the slot system?
    “I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”

  15. #461
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    Re: Official 2017 Draft Day Thread - Day 1

    Fwiw Fangraphs' Eric Longenhagen said he believes the Reds had the best day 1 draft.

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  17. #462
    Bleeding Red in the South SoTxRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: Official 2017 Draft Day Thread - Day 1

    Quote Originally Posted by camisadelgolf View Post
    Fwiw Fangraphs' Eric Longenhagen said he believes the Reds had the best day 1 draft.
    First 2 questions from his morning chat

    Babe Lincoln
    12:19 Best Day 1?
    Eric A Longenhagen
    12:19 Reds
    Babe Lincoln
    12:19 Worst Day 1?
    Eric A Longenhagen
    12:19 A's

  18. #463
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    Re: Official 2017 Draft Day Thread - Day 1

    Couple more Reds related thoughts from Longerhans Day 1 Chat

    Estuve
    12:56 What separates Hunter Greene from Shane Baz?
    Eric A Longenhagen
    12:56 Primarily? Command projection.
    Reds take LHP Jacob Heatherly, Cullman HS (AL)
    Eric A Longenhagen
    1:10 Body lacks projection and his stuff was down a bit this spring compared to last summer, but he was low-90s with feel for an average curve and slider. He was 60 overall on my board

  19. #464
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    Re: Official 2017 Draft Day Thread - Day 1

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    To be clear there are zero scouts working at Baseball America. They have journalists who talk to scouts. And while talking to scouts is a very good thing, and I absolutely, without a doubt, believe that BA does things better than anyone else when it comes to this stuff (which could be due to the fact that they actually pay their people well enough to retain them for more than a year that results in constant turnover that you see everywhere else), let me lay out this example:

    BA writer gets out his rolodex and starts making calls on Player ABC. He calls 10 scouts about Player ABC. He's going to probably get 5 strong, different opinions, then a few guys that are luke-warm, then maybe two that are pretty much in line with each other.

    That writer then has to take all of that information and try to form 1 opinion and where the player ranks. Depending on who you listen to, and all of the opinions are given to you by professional scouts, you may rank a guy in the draft 10th. Or 110th.

    Look at Jordon Adell. If you believe Keith Law, he's the 50th best guy in this draft. If you believe BA, he's what, 7th? Keith Law, I can promise you, isn't the only guy out there getting paid for his baseball opinions that thinks Adell is the 50th (or worse) player in this draft and some of those guys with that opinion are being paid by MLB teams. There's probably a low number of them, but they exist.
    Very good points. Thank you.

  20. #465
    2019 WS Champs Nathan's Avatar
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    Re: Official 2017 Draft Day Thread - Day 1

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Everyone seems to acknowledge that the "lists" out there are just that, and that teams will have widely differing opinions on those players, and often rightfully so.

    A valid reason why a highly listed player may drop is simply because the lists are wrong, and the real scouts employed by major league teams think otherwise.

    I cringe every time someone posts that a pick was a reach simply because BA had him rated lower on their rankings.

    let
    s face it, most of us simply look at the list and hope that the Reds pick the next player in line, because that is all we have to go on.

    Fairchild was rated pretty high on a number of lists. I'm not sure why many are looking at the worse one and assuming the worst.

    I'm pretty sure Greene did not go #1 because of his bonus demands. I think we should be thankful the Reds did not cheap out and went for the best player in the draft. If that means they have to take a few "signability picks", so be it, even though we don't know that yet.

    The Reds proved last year they have a pretty good grasp of the financial ramifications of the early round picks. At this stage, I'm going to trust that they understand the process more than us. It is possible that they passed on Drew waters because they already knew they couldn't fit him into the budget. I assume if that is true, they really wanted Greene, and weren't willing to take a cheaper player at #2 to hope they could get better talent later on. They really have no idea what may be available at #32, so it's likely better to take the best player in the draft at #2, rather than hope some good talent falls to #32 and #38 who they can sign because they saved some money at #2.


    This! 1000x!

    Throughout the whole process, I found it crazy that people were suggesting taking lesser talent at 2, to hope to save money, and draft a faller at 32 and 38. Why? As it turned out, almost all the names mentioned wouldn't have been there. Take what you are given, and if thats another top ten on your board in the supplemental round, wonderful! But, don't count on it...
    ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers and sisters of mine, you did for me.’ Matthew 25:40


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