2017 Reds 2nd round pick Stuart Fairchild, OF Wake Forest

[klw]

Nice slo-mo on the two homers at the end. Love the catcher's reaction starting at 1:01

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/...est-university

Stuart Fairchild is from Seattle, Washington, and could have been a top five rounds pick in the 2014 draft were it not for his strong academics and commitment to Wake Forest University. Instead he lasted until the 38th round where he was selected by the Washington Nationals.

He didn’t sign, made his way to college, then hit .349/.429/.497 as a freshman in 2015. His 2016 sophomore season wasn’t quite as good, .293/.403/.470, and he struggled somewhat during the ‘16 Cape Cod League (.232/.323/.330, seven walks, 29 strikeouts in 112 at-bats).

2017 has been his best season yet: .350/.430/.602 with 13 homers, 16 steals, 26 walks, 46 strikeouts in 226 at-bats.

Fairchild is listed at 6-0, 205, a right-handed hitter and thrower born March 17th, 1996.

Fairchild offers an intriguing set of physical tools, notably above-average 60-grade speed that he uses very well on the bases and in the outfield. He is an extremely reliable defensive outfielder, making only four errors in his entire college career, while showing the range and instincts to handle center field. Arm strength grades range from 45 to 55 depending on the source, but all agree that the arm is accurate.

As a hitter Fairchild is strong enough to hit for substantial power and has done so this spring, setting career-best marks in home runs and slugging percentage. He’s shown some willingness to work counts and if everything works out he could be a multi-category contributor with speed, power, OBP, and defense. His makeup and intelligence are also positives.

http://www.journalnow.com/sports/wak...f39bf04c5.html

Center fielder Stuart Fairchild of Wake Forest has been lashing line drives and deep flies from the day he first stepped into the batter’s box at Couch Ballpark, which is really remarkable given his condition upon arrival.

“When he came in as a freshman, he had a broken ankle the first month he was here,” teammate Gavin Sheets said Monday. “We all went to hit on the field, and I remember he had a little scooter for his foot.

“He put his foot up on a bucket and took (batting practice) with us. And he was hitting balls as hard as anybody. That’s when I knew he was a pretty special player.”

[klw]

Older highlights:


HS film:

[klw]

A highlight catch:


A Cape Cod League interview:

[OnBaseMachine]

I feel better about this pick now than I initially did. When I checked his college career stats on Baseball Cube, he was listed as a right-fielder. Upon learning he profiles as an above-average defender in CF the pick makes a little more sense now. My main concern is the 29 BB/49 K in 289 PAs this season. The year before he was at 39/42. The plate discipline regression coincides with a huge boost in power, so maybe he sold out for more power as Tom suggested in the other thread. He's built similar to AJ Pollock and has that same power/speed combo. While I would have drafted Drew Waters, I'm intrigued by Fairchild's tools.

[SoTxRedsFan]

I like the pick. Sounds like there were plenty of scouts that thought he could sneak his way into the end of round 1. High upside bat that will stick in center field.

[Pacman Fever]

In interviews (well spoken) this kid looks a bit like Danny Graves. Anyone know if he's like part Korean/Vietnamese??

[lollipopcurve]

Another thumbs up. I don't see how you can argue with a tools-across-the-board plus defender in CF who has had a lot of success in a tough conference. Looks like another solid kid, too, alongside Greene and Downs. I like how both Downs and Fairchild have come on strong in their draft year.

[Tom Servo]

I like how both Downs and Fairchild have come on strong in their draft year.

That's what I noticed as well, that with both of them they were well-regarded but more as late round 2/early round 3 guys before really busting out this year.

[WrongVerb]

I said in another thread, my impression is that he's a rich man's Chris Heisey. I don't say that as a slam, but as a compliment. Heisey made a major league career out of being a 4th OFer with some pop and speed. That's what I would expect from a 2nd rounder. Anything more will be gravy.

[redsmetz]

In interviews (well spoken) this kid looks a bit like Danny Graves. Anyone know if he's like part Korean/Vietnamese??

I did a little sleuthing and his mother is clearly of Asian descent, but I can't determine which country. It gives me hope for my grandson who is half Cambodian!

[15fan]

Deacs needed more sock in the middle of the lineup with Will Craig getting drafted in the 2016 first round. Stu's final #s on the year (batting 3rd): .360/.439/.636.

(As a side note, Wake's conference schedule this season included road series @ Louisville, @ Clemson, @ FSU and @ Miami.)

Combine that with 161 POs in CF and 0 errors? Yes please. Every day of the week.

[Benihana]

I don't know, it's tough for me to separate him out from previous college tweeners that Buckley tends to fall in love with. He just seems to have such a similar scouting report, and it's not just Jeff Gelalich (although I think the comp is real). It's Ryan LaMarre. It's Phil Ervin too. I just don't have confidence in Buckley's ability to identify these college OF that could pass for CF but are likely better suited in a corner, if only their bat could profile well there.

So many people are dismissing the Gelalich comparison as unfair, because they're thinking of the colossal minor league bust Gelalich, and not Gelalich at the time he was drafted. Remember, he was a sandwich round pick, and ranked as a top 50 draft prospect at the time by Keith Law. In fact, check out his scouting report here:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...t-and-analysis

Or Ryan LaMarre here:

https://prospectjunkies.com/2010/05/...outing-report/

Or Phil Ervin here:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...1st-round-pick

I hope Buckley bucks the trend, but he has a pretty terrible track record when it comes to selecting college OF, as well as second round picks in general. In fact, check out this brief cross reference of comps:


COLLEGE OF (in the first 5 rounds- since 2010)
Jeff Gelalich
Ryan LaMarre
Phil Ervin
Brodie Greene

SECOND ROUND PICKS (since 2010)
Chris Okey
Ryan LaMarre
Taylor Sparks
KJ Franklin
Tanner Rahier
Gabriel Rosa
Tony Santillan


This guy could be different, and I hope that he is. However I am not terribly optimistic.

(I am very optimistic about yesterday's other two picks though)

[Benihana]

I said in another thread, my impression is that he's a rich man's Chris Heisey. I don't say that as a slam, but as a compliment. Heisey made a major league career out of being a 4th OFer with some pop and speed. That's what I would expect from a 2nd rounder. Anything more will be gravy.

I'm not sure about the rich man portion, but I'll accept the Heisey comp. That's also the same comp that we were using for Gelalich and LaMarre though, and most recently Phil Ervin. Which doesn't leave me optimistic.

I think his ceiling is a slower/inferior fielding Drew Stubbs. His floor is Jeff Gelalich.

[lollipopcurve]

I don't know, it's tough for me to separate him out from previous college tweeners that Buckley tends to fall in love with. He just seems to have such a similar scouting report, and it's not just Jeff Gelalich (although I think the comp is real). It's Ryan LaMarre. It's Phil Ervin too. I just don't have confidence in Buckley's ability to identify these college OF that could pass for CF but are likely better suited in a corner, if only their bat could profile well there.
This guy could be different, and I hope that he is. However I am not terribly optimistic.

(I am very optimistic about yesterday's other two picks though)

When it's at the back of the first round and beyond, your odds of finding a starting caliber OF with any single pick are not great. He's drafted Winker (who is almost universally considered a future starter here) and Billy Hamilton. I think your expectations that the scouts should hit more than they miss on these selections is a bit unreasonable.

[Patrick Bateman]

Its definitely a risk anytime you take a player where the biggest question is whether he will be able to hit with a wooden bat. As Benihana has shown, Buckley has a pattern in running into that problem. The strategy appears to me to take players with known skillsets and only have one area that requires significant development to focus on. Obviously, that's understating how important that skill is to develop and what makes these players such low floor players.