2017 Reds 2nd round pick Stuart Fairchild, OF Wake Forest

[Benihana]

And what I'd say to Sappelt, Amaral, Fellhauer, Ervin, Gelalich, Rosa, Stubbs, LaMarre, Green and Syzmanski is - his name is Stuart Fairchild. Because those guys failed doesn't mean he will fail. I haven't seen one convincing thing arguing that he will flop that is statistical. He's a second round pick - ergo he'll fail. The Reds have tried a lot of kids as CFers and only 1, Stubbs, had marginal success - ergo he'll fail. Also, the "professional" keyboard scouts on RedsZone (myself included) preferred guys named Lutz or Waters, making the Fairchild pick an automatic disappointment. Ergo, he'll fail. That's three things he has going against him. Good thing is, none of them are high tight fastballs, or hammer curves.

The thing we tend to ignore is that even if he becomes a 4th OFer in the majors he's beat the odds. Of course second round picks seem to fail a lot - because they do, period, across all of baseball. But the failure of any of the above named guys has nothing, nothing whatever to do with whether Stuart Fairchild fails.

When I look at his college numbers I see one caution primarily - his Cape Cod season wasn't a success by any standard. He hit a helluva lot better in the Ripken League the year before. He also appears to have sold out some contact/discipline for power in his senior year. Still, his strikeout to walk rate is 1.52/1. His isoD is .90, isoP is .209. All those numbers are good, solid. Not elite level but fitting for where he was picked. Let's face it, though, he has to line up behind Friedl, Trammell and Beltre (and possibly White) in the CF queue. He is depth at CF prospect-wise. Advantage Reds - when Hamilton leaves there should be a quality replacement waiting in house. I doubt he beats out all those guys, especially Friedl and/or Trammell but a true CF backup that can hit a little bit wouldn't be a bad outcome. It's something the Reds don't have at the moment. If Fairchild becomes Jarrod Dyson to Tramell's Lorenzo Cain I'd call that a winning scenario.

That's all well and good, but couldn't you make the same argument about drafting high school pitching? Forget about that category's track record and focus on the individual? In other words, Hunter Greene has nothing to do with Tyler Kolek, Chris Gruler et al

[dougdirt]

That's all well and good, but couldn't you make the same argument about drafting high school pitching? Forget about that category's track record and focus on the individual? In other words, Hunter Greene has nothing to do with Tyler Kolek, Chris Gruler et al

That's exactly the argument I'd make. Hunter Greene has as much to do with Tyler Kolek and Chris Gruler as he does with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke.

[M2]

That's exactly the argument I'd make. Hunter Greene has as much to do with Tyler Kolek and Chris Gruler as he does with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke.

They're all data. Once you collect all of that data, what you discover is Tyler Kolek is more common than Clayton Kershaw. Aside from that, Greene's a far more similar pitcher to Kolek than Kershaw and Greinke. The latter two are in fact so vastly different from Greene when it comes to style that I'd say the comparison point stops at age.

I'm not saying Greene's headed down the Kolek path - I certainly hope not - but it's faulty logic to insist each player is so individual we can't possibly glean information about him from looking at past examples.

[M2]

And what I'd say to Sappelt, Amaral, Fellhauer, Ervin, Gelalich, Rosa, Stubbs, LaMarre, Green and Syzmanski is - his name is Stuart Fairchild. Because those guys failed doesn't mean he will fail. I haven't seen one convincing thing arguing that he will flop that is statistical. He's a second round pick - ergo he'll fail. The Reds have tried a lot of kids as CFers and only 1, Stubbs, had marginal success - ergo he'll fail. Also, the "professional" keyboard scouts on RedsZone (myself included) preferred guys named Lutz or Waters, making the Fairchild pick an automatic disappointment. Ergo, he'll fail. That's three things he has going against him. Good thing is, none of them are high tight fastballs, or hammer curves.

The thing we tend to ignore is that even if he becomes a 4th OFer in the majors he's beat the odds. Of course second round picks seem to fail a lot - because they do, period, across all of baseball. But the failure of any of the above named guys has nothing, nothing whatever to do with whether Stuart Fairchild fails.

When I look at his college numbers I see one caution primarily - his Cape Cod season wasn't a success by any standard. He hit a helluva lot better in the Ripken League the year before. He also appears to have sold out some contact/discipline for power in his senior year. Still, his strikeout to walk rate is 1.52/1. His isoD is .90, isoP is .209. All those numbers are good, solid. Not elite level but fitting for where he was picked. Let's face it, though, he has to line up behind Friedl, Trammell and Beltre (and possibly White) in the CF queue. He is depth at CF prospect-wise. Advantage Reds - when Hamilton leaves there should be a quality replacement waiting in house. I doubt he beats out all those guys, especially Friedl and/or Trammell but a true CF backup that can hit a little bit wouldn't be a bad outcome. It's something the Reds don't have at the moment. If Fairchild becomes Jarrod Dyson to Tramell's Lorenzo Cain I'd call that a winning scenario.

I'll fully admit I worry he falls into what has been a blind spot for this organization. As Beni noted, the Reds do poorly with gym hero outfielders. So, no Lucy, I'm not kicking the football. If it flies on its own through the uprights, that's great and I will be happy about it. If Mr. Fairchild plays consistently well through this time next year, then I might start buying in on him.

[Benihana]

That's exactly the argument I'd make. Hunter Greene has as much to do with Tyler Kolek and Chris Gruler as he does with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke.

Agreed and I said it mostly rhetorically (I was strongly in favor of the Greene pick, but even I have to acknowledge concerns with people like Kolek and Colt Griffin's history.).

However I think the pitching argument is even more independent than comparing Fairchild to other Buckley-drafted college OF because, as M2 noted, the Buckley regime seems to have a blind spot and incredibly poor track record of identifying, selecting and developing the guys who end up major league successes with this profile. Kinda similar to how I'd be skeptical of Jim Bowden drafting a pitcher (or really, Bowden drafting anyone for that matter).

[dougdirt]

They're all data. Once you collect all of that data, what you discover is Tyler Kolek is more common than Clayton Kershaw. Aside from that, Greene's a far more similar pitcher to Kolek than Kershaw and Greinke. The latter two are in fact so vastly different from Greene when it comes to style that I'd say the comparison point stops at age.

I'm not saying Greene's headed down the Kolek path - I certainly hope not - but it's faulty logic to insist each player is so individual we can't possibly glean information about him from looking at past examples.

I'm not going to go back and forth on this, but I don't agree with this.

[RED VAN HOT]

Fairchild looks like a solid pick to me. There was some concern expressed regarding his contract rate. Yet, he has never exceeded 18% k rate. He developed some pop this year without a significant increase in swing and miss. By comparison, Fairchild's stats are better than Jeren Kendall's who struck out nearly 26% of the time. The biggest difference is that Kendall attracted attention early and became a highly touted prospect. Few of us had heard of Fairchild before the super regionals. IMO, Fairchild is the better prospect of the two and an excellent pick.

[Tom Servo]

Pretty solid season with just a few more weeks to go for Fairchild, currently slashing .261/.346/.449 on the year between Daytona and Chattanooga. They've still got him playing CF the majority of the time so they seemingly believe he can handle that position. His steals have mostly dried up though after swiping 23 bags last year, only 6 so far this season.

Kind of strikes me as Phillip Ervin with better defense/fundamentals.

[Mitri]

Pretty solid season with just a few more weeks to go for Fairchild, currently slashing .261/.346/.449 on the year between Daytona and Chattanooga. They've still got him playing CF the majority of the time so they seemingly believe he can handle that position. His steals have mostly dried up though after swiping 23 bags last year, only 6 so far this season.

Kind of strikes me as Phillip Ervin with better defense/fundamentals.

Is Stuart Fairchild about to pass Siri on the prospect list? Fairchild doesn't have the high ceiling of Jose, but doesn't appear to have any glaring weaknesses like Siri does.

Reds could really use a homegrown CF type who can at least become a solid 4th OF option. I guess Ervin is *kind of* that guy now, but his defense leaves a lot to be desired.

[SoTxRedsFan]

Siani putting it together after a really horrible start to his season coupled with Fairchild's steady play gives us 2 pretty nice CF prospects coming up.

[malcontent]

I'll be pretty surprised if Fairchild doesn't wash out in AAA.

Though he could have LaMarre's career arc, I guess.

No sizzle. Just a pop.

[statmanwvu]

I'll be pretty surprised if Fairchild doesn't wash out in AAA.

Though he could have LaMarre's career arc, I guess.

No sizzle. Just a pop.

I dunno. Anyone with a pulse seems to be bashing 25 home runs in AAA.

[Alabama]

I dunno. Anyone with a pulse seems to be bashing 25 home runs in AAA.

Not Siri
I like Fairchild just think he will be a carbon copy of Ervin. Not exactly play style but situation, not good enough to be considered part of the future but good enough to hang around for a while.

[ScotlandRed]

I think If you take the first month and a half away his season looks very very good. Didn’t he have a horrible start to the season?

[mth123]

I think If you take the first month and a half away his season looks very very good. Didn’t he have a horrible start to the season?

Yeah. I have him in my top 5. Lodolo, India, Greene I hope. Then Fairchild is as good a bet as anyone. I'd probably stick Stephenson ahead of him, but nobody else really.