Hurricane Maria

[nmculbreth]

It's uncertain what impact this storm will make on the CONUS, but this looks like really bad news for Dominica, St. Croix and Puerto Rico.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/ra...e-headed-north

[WrongVerb]

Cat 1 to Cat 5 in just over 24 hours. This is an insane development. Current winds 160 mph, pressure 925mb. Aiming for the mid-Atlantic US coast (still a week away). Second cat-5 hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean in just over 2 weeks. Never happened before.

[marcshoe]

We're all gonna die. This year.

Good news is that I had already decided to postpone an east coast trip to work on my dissertation in some peaceful place until the end of October. Maybe the hurricanes will be over by then.

The bad news is everything else.

[RFS62]

One of my best friends and co-workers is trapped on St. Johns. Had a reservation to get out yesterday, but the airports shut down. We've tried everything on earth to get him on a boat, ferry, small island hopper airplane, to get him ANYWHERE else, to no avail.

I was supposed to be there with him through next week, but my wife just had an operation and I delayed to take care of her. All these decisions came before Marie became a monster.

This is going to be a long night.

[nmculbreth]

Pressure is down to 916 and dropping and on a path for a direct hit on Puerto Rico... awful, awful news.

[Sea Ray]

Amazing how quickly that went from cat 1 to 5.

[WrongVerb]

From the latest forecast discussion:

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's core is expected to move near or over St. Croix and
Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday, bringing life-threatening wind,
storm surge, and rainfall impacts to portions of those islands.
Everyone in these areas should follow advice from local officials to
avoid life-threatening flooding from storm surge and rainfall.

2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the
near-surface winds indicated in this advisory.

3. A hurricane warning also in effect for the remainder of the
Virgin Islands and the northern coast of the Dominican Republic,
where Maria is expected to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and
heavy rainfall.

4. A hurricane watch is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas and
the Turks and Caicos, where Maria could bring hurricane conditions
on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 16.8N  64.0W  145 KT 165 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 17.5N  65.2W  145 KT 165 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 18.4N  66.7W  130 KT 150 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO
 36H  21/0600Z 19.3N  68.1W  125 KT 145 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  21/1800Z 20.2N  69.4W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  22/1800Z 22.5N  71.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  23/1800Z 25.5N  72.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  24/1800Z 28.5N  72.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

[WrongVerb]

From the newest discussion:

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's core will pass near or over St. Croix within the next
few hours and will approach the southeastern coast of Puerto Rico
early Wednesday, bringing life-threatening wind, storm surge, and
rainfall impacts to portions of those islands.  Everyone in these
areas should follow advice from local officials to avoid
life-threatening flooding from storm surge and rainfall.

2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the
near-surface winds indicated in this advisory.

3. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the remainder of the
Virgin Islands and the northern coast of the Dominican Republic,
where Maria is expected to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and
heavy rainfall.

4. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas and
the Turks and Caicos, where Maria could bring hurricane conditions
on Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 17.3N  64.7W  150 KT 175 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 18.0N  65.8W  145 KT 165 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 18.9N  67.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 19.9N  68.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 20.9N  69.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 23.3N  71.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  24/0000Z 26.2N  72.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  25/0000Z 29.5N  72.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

[klw]

[RFS62]

We lost contact with my co-worker and friend, and today we found out he made it from St. Johns to St. Thomas. Out of the frying pan, into the fire. I got a text from his satellite phone today saying "I'm ok". That was it. His new nickname is Lt. Dan.

Or maybe Forrest.

I'm thinking he's probably hooked up to a Jack Daniels IV about now.

And who knows how long it's going to take or even how he's going to get out of there.

[dougdirt]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather...-storm-n802911

"The San Juan that we knew yesterday is no longer there," Yulín said, adding: "We're looking at four to six months without electricity" in Puerto Rico, home to nearly 3.5 million people.

This should be unacceptable.

[WrongVerb]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather...-storm-n802911



This should be unacceptable.

The only reliable way to avoid that is to bury all the power lines. That's probably doable as long as the area isn't too low-lying. But it's expensive as hell, and PR already has money issue. Even if you bury the lines, you've got substations that sit above ground, not to mention power plants that sustain damage. It's a reminder that electric power is a convenience, not an absolute.

[dougdirt]

The only reliable way to avoid that is to bury all the power lines. That's probably doable as long as the area isn't too low-lying. But it's expensive as hell, and PR already has money issue. Even if you bury the lines, you've got substations that sit above ground, not to mention power plants that sustain damage. It's a reminder that electric power is a convenience, not an absolute.

I'm not really talking about future prevention here. I'm just talking about getting them back on the grid.

[WrongVerb]

I'm not really talking about future prevention here. I'm just talking about getting them back on the grid.

Yeah. I guess what I'm trying to say is that it isn't a matter of just flipping a switch and their power comes back on. There are some significant engineering issues with power generation that need to be handled before power can be restored safely. There could be power stations that are damaged and need parts to be fabricated (likely in the US). Substations are probably in even worse shape. And electrical wire needs to be re-strung along much of the island, I'm sure. And we aren't talking a small island here. It's probably the same area as what's within the I70-I75-I71 triangle in southwest Ohio, but with huge mountains in the middle.

Just assessing damage and ordering supplies is going to take time. Then fabricating and shipping them back to the island takes time. Then installing them -- including coordinating personnel -- takes time.

[dougdirt]

Yeah. I guess what I'm trying to say is that it isn't a matter of just flipping a switch and their power comes back on. There are some significant engineering issues with power generation that need to be handled before power can be restored safely. There could be power stations that are damaged and need parts to be fabricated (likely in the US). Substations are probably in even worse shape. And electrical wire needs to be re-strung along much of the island, I'm sure. And we aren't talking a small island here. It's probably the same area as what's within the I70-I75-I71 triangle in southwest Ohio, but with huge mountains in the middle.

Just assessing damage and ordering supplies is going to take time. Then fabricating and shipping them back to the island takes time. Then installing them -- including coordinating personnel -- takes time.

I understand that it takes time to do that. But 3-6 months is not acceptable. The mainland here needs to find a way to send qualified people, and supplies to Puerto Rico and take care of this. Those are Americans down there.