Originally Posted by
redsof72
A lot of comments in this thread from many different perspectives. Some I agree with, some I mildly disagree with, and some I strongly disagree with. I think the nature of message boards encourages interested parties to express opinions often based on incomplete information or based on information available today that could easily change tomorrow, and then lead to a completely different opinion, maybe even the opposite opinion. When Nick Senzel was hitting .170 for Billings, there were a lot of alarms going off on RedsZone. Here is what I think:
First of all, it doesn't really matter how good Greene is at the age of 18, does it? So that is kind of the basis for how I feel, but, here is what we know at this point:
1) He has a power arm that is extremely rare from a historical perspective. He has hit 100 mph in most every start and 101 in one start, at the age of 18. That has not helped him much in terms of getting people out, but it does indicate a quality that you can't teach, and a quality that, over time, should give him an advantage that few pitchers have ever had. If he has the arm/body to throw a fastball at 101 in cold weather, he can also do things with his other pitches that others could only dream of.
2) He has struggled mightily in the Midwest League. He has been in constant trouble and has pitched with runners in scoring position in almost every inning. In fact, he has given up runs in most innings, but those scoreless innings he has put up have generally involved pitching out of a tough jam.
3) Every batter he faces is fired up to go to the plate, wants to be able to say he got a hit off this phenom, is playing with a higher than normal level of energy, thus his bat speed is just a little quicker, etc.
4) Based on conversation with scouts who sit behind home plate, his fastball is extremely straight and the ball is easy to see out of his hand. His fastball is also too flat at this point, meaning it can be hit with a level swing at various points (batter can be a little late and still make solid contact because the pitch stays on the same plane, or even be a little early--polar opposite of Chapman's tilt, where the ball is coming in at more of a downward angle and there is a very small potential contact point available to the hitter). The fact that his pitches are both straight and flat make it easier for a hitter to "cheat" and make contact, meaning the hitter is swinging too early, but is guessing where the ball will be, and the straightness and flatness keep it on that path. These things would all seem to be correctable in time. I would take the 100 mph fastball and take my chances with fixing these issues.
I don't know if Greene was ready to pitch in Dayton at the start of 2018. Maybe he was, maybe he wasn't. I think there was probably a desire to start him in a full-season league based on his draft position and probably a belief that even if things didn't go as well as planned, he would still be able to hold his own. But if he was not ready to pitch here, then the current results are what you would expect, even though that may not mean he is necessarily behind where he should be. He could have some things that, once corrected, allow him to show the dominance that you might have hoped for, and then he is back on track. For those people that hoped he would be in Cincinnati in 2019, that was just not realistic. The package was not refined to that point.
Lastly, I will definitely disagree with the folks that are saying he has been unlucky because of high batting average on balls in play. This was the case in one start, the fourth last Saturday night, the 28th. In the other four starts, there were many lucky outs, far more than unlucky hits. When the ball goes in at 100 and comes back out at 100, it is usually going to be a hit somewhere. To look at traditional data and draw a conclusion that he has been unlucky is a flawed use of the data. You are ignoring the actual exit speed in your deductive process about what should be expected to be happening, and you are assuming the exit speed in his games is typical or within a standard deviation. Today, he gave up two rockets that were caught in the first inning and allowed no runs in that inning, stranding runners at first and third. In the second inning, he gave up two runs and then came out of the game with the bases loaded and all three of those runners were stranded. That could easily have been a four, five, six run outing. All that being the case, if you asked every manager he has faced to name the top pitching prospect they have seen this season, I have no doubt that there would be no hesitation in saying Hunter Greene. You can't teach 101 mph by an 18 year old.