Hunter Greene

[dougdirt]

I'll quote redsof 72 here:



Sounds like scouts have spotted the problem pretty well. What concerns me is the people who make the decisions were given this information and ignored it.

I also think you're taking the wrong lesson from the BABIP. Obviously it's a crazy high number that will come down. Yet no one with Greene's heat should be getting tagged like that at that level. It's beyond luck distribution. There is an actual reason driving his uncanny hittability. Take some time to fix the things redsof72 mentioned, then you'll probably see some crazy low BABIPs.

I think you're taking the wrong thing from what I said.

Is there a reason he's getting hit around some? Yes. And I've absolutely addressed that on this here website. But they wouldn't be BABIPing .633 against you. Literally you.

And I've absolutely read what he wrote. I've been at 60% of his starts for Dayton. I saw him pitch in Arizona. I've noted the fastball issue here, and other places.

A .633 BABIP is unlucky. Period. End of story.

That doesn't mean I'm not saying there's not stuff to work on. That doesn't mean he hasn't been hit hard at times and his BABIP should be .300. It means his BABIP is .633 and it's stupid amounts of unlucky. Because it is.

[REDREAD]

Because he seems to have the stuff that warrants him being there. Getting your first taste of Low-A can be rough. Santillan's a perfect example. And much of his "drubbing" was babip-fueled luck, so rushing to judgement seems rash.

And I would consider the claim that he's being rushed and he should never have been sent to Dayton to be a somewhat panic-induced idea. Maybe my definition of panic is different from yours though...

I would not call it babip--fueled luck.
There is an underlying assumption on BABIP -- that the hitter is facing average pitching.
If I went out on a major league mound and pitched against the Reds hitters, I am sure their BABIP against me would go through the roof, because I suck at pitching.
I am guessing Greene has a high BABIP against because he is "grooving" pitches to try to get strikes (given his high walk total).. so when it gets over the plate, it is easier for the hitters to hit hard.

I mean, it's debatable whether Greene should be at A ball or not.. but I don't think we can shrug off the rockets against him as BABIP-luck.
The guy is struggling big time.

Personally, given that the kid barely pitched his senior year, I would not have put him in A ball. I think he will recover though. But if he is having control problems, I am not sure this is the best place for him to work it out (against hitters who are much older and advanced than he is).
The kid seems mentally tough though, he will probably be ok.

[M2]

I think you're taking the wrong thing from what I said.

Is there a reason he's getting hit around some? Yes. And I've absolutely addressed that on this here website. But they wouldn't be BABIPing .633 against you. Literally you.

And I've absolutely read what he wrote. I've been at 60% of his starts for Dayton. I saw him pitch in Arizona. I've noted the fastball issue here, and other places.

A .633 BABIP is unlucky. Period. End of story.

That doesn't mean I'm not saying there's not stuff to work on. That doesn't mean he hasn't been hit hard at times and his BABIP should be .300. It means his BABIP is .633 and it's stupid amounts of unlucky. Because it is.

I know how BABIP works. Yet you're making a point about a stat and not Hunter Greene. The BABIP will normalize. It did a bit last night. Yet he still had a terrible outing. Is he in the right spot to fix the underlying problem? That's the developmental question.

For my part, I don't like putting teenage prospects in sink or swim situations. So if they can't get it corrected quickly, I'd send him back to Goodyear for some fine tuning.

[Hoosier Red]

There is an underlying assumption on BABIP -- that the hitter is facing average pitching.

I'm not sure I agree with this. If I recall correctly, the expected BABIP for EVERY PITCHER from Clayton Kershaw to Yovani Gallardo is roughly .300.
There's a few pitchers who will stay below that (but not by much) some pitchers would be consistently above .300 (again not by much).

[757690]

Greene’s BABIP will almost definitely get lower. We shouldn’t be debating that. The issue is how much lower will it get if he keeps pitching this same way.

If it drops .200 points to .433, it’s still very problematic. Even if it gets cut in half to .316, it’s on the high side, manageable, but on the high side of what an effective pitcher has.

A .633 BABIP can’t be all bad luck. It’s a clear sign that batters are getting good swings against him, that he’s not fooling hitters. Reds72 and other’s scouting reports confirm this.

We should stop focusing on his BABAP and start focusing on why he’s not fooling hitters and correct that as soon as possible.

[redsof72]

I remember watching Anthony DeSclafani on a rehab start last summer. He faced 9 batters and have up 8 hits. His BABIP was .889. There was nothing unlucky about it. Of the nine batters he faced, three hit home runs, two others hit doubles off the wall, and most everything else hit was an absolute rocket. He got one out and gave up eight runs. You throw a pitch to even a Single-A hitter down the middle, belt high, with no movement, and it is going to come back hard, every time.

I think we are getting into a debate here that is beside the point. Greene's BABIP will come down when his exit velocity starts coming down.

I remember reading a post somewhere last fall from instructional league, I don't remember where, but it had Greene video and it was very detailed, and I remember making a mental note of something in the post that was kind of thrown in randomly along with a lot of superlatives...I am paraphrasing but you could look it up, along with all the info on great velocity and everything else, it said..."Greene was hit hard today." This was against instructional league hitters.

Greene is not where he needs to be. He has the tools to be a pitcher like few ever before him. He is 18 years old. This is why there is a Minor Leagues.

[757690]

I'm not sure I agree with this. If I recall correctly, the expected BABIP for EVERY PITCHER from Clayton Kershaw to Yovani Gallardo is roughly .300.
There's a few pitchers who will stay below that (but not by much) some pitchers would be consistently above .300 (again not by much).

Well, the question always has been whether or not it stays in that range, because pitchers who would have higher BABIP, don’t last long enough to get counted, or don’t make it at all. For instance, both Jason Marquis and Kevin Gregg, in 2015, when they both revealed they shouldn’t be pitching in the majors, has BABIP north of .350.

[dougdirt]

Unless every batted ball for Hunter Greene has an exit velocity of about 105-115 MPH, his average on balls put in play against him is higher than expected based on what we know about exit velocity and balls going for hits.

I think too many people are missing the point here.

There's a difference between giving up a lot of hard contact, which Greene has done. And having a BABIP of .633 on the season, and an average against that includes home runs, even higher.

With a BABIP that's "normal" based on his contact/exit velocity being normalized to what those should be over the long haul, if his BABIP were .400 right now, that wouldn't be surprising. But it's .633. That is bad luck. It's very bad luck. He's given up, probably, 50% more hits than he should have based on his batted ball profile even if we accept the idea that every last one of them was hit harder than a normal ball that falls into those categories.

Again: That's not saying he doesn't have things to work on. It's saying he's been unlucky to have a .633 BABIP against.

[M2]

I'm not sure I agree with this. If I recall correctly, the expected BABIP for EVERY PITCHER from Clayton Kershaw to Yovani Gallardo is roughly .300.
There's a few pitchers who will stay below that (but not by much) some pitchers would be consistently above .300 (again not by much).

Really bad (in the majors) or overmatched (in the minors) pitchers don't settle around the .300 mark. Brandon Finnegan is a good current example. The way he's pitching right now he should happy his BABIP is sub-.400. It's like a hockey stick distribution pattern.

[Patrick Bateman]

Obviously the BAPIP is going to come down.

But it doesn't mean its not going to regress towards a level that is still above the league average, and that there is an issue that needs to be corrected if A ball hitters are able to square up consistently.

[redsof72]

Unless every batted ball for Hunter Greene has an exit velocity of about 105-115 MPH, his average on balls put in play against him is higher than expected based on what we know about exit velocity and balls going for hits.

I have the highest respect for you but I have to disagree with you on this matter. I don't have data but I would say he has averaged in the 90-95 range for exit speed. He does not have Billy Hamilton in center field or an MLB defense behind him. The biggest difference between an MLB player and a Single-A player, on average, is speed and defense. I would say that you should expect that a ball in Single-A hit at 90-95 would translate, in terms of the chance of it being fielded, to about 10 mph higher in MLB, maybe 15. So I would think that a Single-A pitcher with a 90-95 exit speed should expect a BABIP that would be equal to what a MLB pitcher would expect with an exit speed of 100-110. That would be over a large sample size. Just watching the games, if I thought he was unlucky, I would be the first to say so. I would have no reason to say otherwise. But that is not what I have seen. It has not lowered my expectations for Greene longterm.

[dougdirt]

We'll just have to disagree on this one (aside from the mutual respect back your way). I don't doubt that his BABIP should be higher than normal. It shouldn't be .633.

[Hoosier Red]

Greene’s BABIP will almost definitely get lower. We shouldn’t be debating that. The issue is how much lower will it get if he keeps pitching this same way.

If it drops .200 points to .433, it’s still very problematic. Even if it gets cut in half to .316, it’s on the high side, manageable, but on the high side of what an effective pitcher has.

A .633 BABIP can’t be all bad luck. It’s a clear sign that batters are getting good swings against him, that he’s not fooling hitters. Reds72 and other’s scouting reports confirm this.

We should stop focusing on his BABAP and start focusing on why he’s not fooling hitters and correct that as soon as possible.

Those are all fair points. What I'm curious about though is how is he still striking out batters at such a high clip if he's not fooling anyone? I mean, it's hard to parse out any meaningful samples from five starts, but even in the last three starts where he's struggled, he's struck out 7 out of 35 batters. To me that doesn't seem terrible?

[Old school 1983]

I don’t see anyone panicking. Everyone is wondering why the reds decided to put an 18 year old “child” in Dayton against 22-25 year olds instead of instructional ball until Billings opens up.

Maybe they wanted him to face some adversity. He's seemingly dominated high school. Probably every level since little league. Not saying it's right or smart but it could have been a consideration

[757690]

Those are all fair points. What I'm curious about though is how is he still striking out batters at such a high clip if he's not fooling anyone? I mean, it's hard to parse out any meaningful samples from five starts, but even in the last three starts where he's struggled, he's struck out 7 out of 35 batters. To me that doesn't seem terrible?

You can fool all of the hitters some of the time or you can fool some of the hitters all of the time, but you can’t fool all of the hitters all of the time.

But seriously, good question. I’m guessing he’s overpower some hitters, but the ones that can catch up to his fastball are hit getting g fooled by it.