Josiah "Bartlett" Gray - Reds 2018 Competitive Balance pick

[SoTxRedsFan]

Confirmed that he plans to sign.

https://www.lohud.com/story/sports/h...y-1/671900002/

[RedlegJake]

I get it, but it almost seems as though you'd be forgiving of a dart throw in these rounds since the success rates are so low anyway.

And another big piece here is, what does the guy become even if he "hits?" Did we grab a guy who, best case, might profile as a closer at some point?

If you're just gonna blindly toss darts, at least aim for the spots in the middle.

What is wrong with a closer with a CBB pick? I think your sights and expectations are unrealistically high. Getting even an average ML starter at this point is a lot more blind luck than drafting acumen. As for throwing darts, BS. They picked kids who throw plenty hard and have some tools to work with. Not like they went for high 80s/lo 90s guys with the famed "pitchability". They went after raw but real talent.

[TheBigLebowski]

What is wrong with a closer with a CBB pick? I think your sights and expectations are unrealistically high. Getting even an average ML starter at this point is a lot more blind luck than drafting acumen. As for throwing darts, BS. They picked kids who throw plenty hard and have some tools to work with. Not like they went for high 80s/lo 90s guys with the famed "pitchability". They went after raw but real talent.

Closer is his best case comp/projection. I'd rather a middling MLB caliber starter than a middling closer any day of the week. If you're gonna throw darts, aim for the middle.

And raw but real talent is fine, but I think we just took Gray a little too early.

[WrongVerb]

I just grabbed a random team, in this case the Expos/Nationals, and looked at their 2nd round picks over the past 20+ years:

Year	Rnd	DT	OvPck	RdPck	Signed	Name	Pos	WAR	Drafted Out of
2017	2		65	29	Y	Wil Crowe(minors)	RHP		University of South Carolina (Columbia SC)
2016	2		58	17	Y	Sheldon Neuse(minors)	3B		University of Oklahoma (Norman OK)
2015	2		58	16	Y	Andrew Stevenson(minors)	OF	-0.6	Louisiana State University (Baton Rouge LA)
2015	2		69	27	Y	Blake Perkins(minors)	OF		Verrado HS (Buckeye AZ)
2014	2		57	16	N	Andrew Suarez(minors)	LHP	-0.2	University of Miami (Coral Gables FL)
2013	2		68	29	Y	Jake Johansen(minors)	RHP		Dallas Baptist University (Dallas TX)
2012	2		80	20	Y	Tony Renda(minors)	2B	-0.4	University of California Berkeley (Berkeley CA)
2010	2		51	1	Y	Sammy Solis(minors)	LHP	1.2	University of San Diego (San Diego CA)
2009	2		50	1	Y	Jeff Kobernus(minors)	2B	-0.2	University of California Berkeley (Berkeley CA)
2008	2		55	9	Y	Destin Hood(minors)	OF	-0.2	St. Pauls Episcopal School (Mobile AL)
2007	2		67	3	Y	*Jordan Zimmermann(minors)	RHP	21.2	University of Wisconsin at Stevens Point (Stevens Point WI)
2007	2		70	6	Y	Jake Smolinski(minors)	3B	0.2	Boylan Catholic HS (Rockford IL)
2006	2		59	15	N	Sean Black(minors)	RHP		Lenape HS (Medford NJ)
2006	2		70	26	Y	*Stephen Englund(minors)	OF		Bellevue HS (Bellevue WA)
2004	2		54	13	Y	Erick San Pedro(minors)	C		University of Miami (Coral Gables FL)
2003	2		57	20	Y	Jerry Owens(minors)	OF	0.8	The Masters College (Santa Clarita CA)
2002	2		46	5	Y	Darrell Rasner(minors)	RHP	0.8	University of Nevada-Reno (Reno NV)
2001	2		50	6	Y	Don Levinski(minors)	RHP		Weimar HS (Weimar TX)
1999	2		57	6	Y	Brandon Phillips(minors)	SS	31.2	Redan HS (Stone Mountain GA)
1998	2		54	11	Y	Eric Good(minors)	LHP		Mishawaka HS (Niles MI)
1997	2		74	22	Y	Kris Tetz(minors)	RHP		Lodi HS (Lodi CA)
1996	2		40	5	Y	Milton Bradley(minors)	OF	16.9	Polytechnic HS (Long Beach CA)

That's 3 decent players out of the last 22 drafts. I'd be shocked if other teams didn't have similar rates of success. Hopefully that gives some kind of perspective on what we should and shouldn't be expecting out of 2nd round picks.

Use this tool to look at other teams: https://www.baseball-reference.com/d...e=franch_round

[TRF]

I just grabbed a random team, in this case the Expos/Nationals, and looked at their 2nd round picks over the past 20+ years:


That's 3 decent players out of the last 22 drafts. I'd be shocked if other teams didn't have similar rates of success. Hopefully that gives some kind of perspective on what we should and shouldn't be expecting out of 2nd round picks.

Use this tool to look at other teams: https://www.baseball-reference.com/d...e=franch_round

Over the same timeframe, the Reds have 6, with 2 more that might be successful in Santillan and Rainey.

[klw]

I just grabbed a random team, in this case the Expos/Nationals, and looked at their 2nd round picks over the past 20+ years:

Year	Rnd	DT	OvPck	RdPck	Signed	Name	Pos	WAR	Drafted Out of
2017	2		65	29	Y	Wil Crowe(minors)	RHP		University of South Carolina (Columbia SC)
2016	2		58	17	Y	Sheldon Neuse(minors)	3B		University of Oklahoma (Norman OK)
2015	2		58	16	Y	Andrew Stevenson(minors)	OF	-0.6	Louisiana State University (Baton Rouge LA)
2015	2		69	27	Y	Blake Perkins(minors)	OF		Verrado HS (Buckeye AZ)
2014	2		57	16	N	Andrew Suarez(minors)	LHP	-0.2	University of Miami (Coral Gables FL)
2013	2		68	29	Y	Jake Johansen(minors)	RHP		Dallas Baptist University (Dallas TX)
2012	2		80	20	Y	Tony Renda(minors)	2B	-0.4	University of California Berkeley (Berkeley CA)
2010	2		51	1	Y	Sammy Solis(minors)	LHP	1.2	University of San Diego (San Diego CA)
2009	2		50	1	Y	Jeff Kobernus(minors)	2B	-0.2	University of California Berkeley (Berkeley CA)
2008	2		55	9	Y	Destin Hood(minors)	OF	-0.2	St. Pauls Episcopal School (Mobile AL)
2007	2		67	3	Y	*Jordan Zimmermann(minors)	RHP	21.2	University of Wisconsin at Stevens Point (Stevens Point WI)
2007	2		70	6	Y	Jake Smolinski(minors)	3B	0.2	Boylan Catholic HS (Rockford IL)
2006	2		59	15	N	Sean Black(minors)	RHP		Lenape HS (Medford NJ)
2006	2		70	26	Y	*Stephen Englund(minors)	OF		Bellevue HS (Bellevue WA)
2004	2		54	13	Y	Erick San Pedro(minors)	C		University of Miami (Coral Gables FL)
2003	2		57	20	Y	Jerry Owens(minors)	OF	0.8	The Masters College (Santa Clarita CA)
2002	2		46	5	Y	Darrell Rasner(minors)	RHP	0.8	University of Nevada-Reno (Reno NV)
2001	2		50	6	Y	Don Levinski(minors)	RHP		Weimar HS (Weimar TX)
1999	2		57	6	Y	Brandon Phillips(minors)	SS	31.2	Redan HS (Stone Mountain GA)
1998	2		54	11	Y	Eric Good(minors)	LHP		Mishawaka HS (Niles MI)
1997	2		74	22	Y	Kris Tetz(minors)	RHP		Lodi HS (Lodi CA)
1996	2		40	5	Y	Milton Bradley(minors)	OF	16.9	Polytechnic HS (Long Beach CA)

That's 3 decent players out of the last 22 drafts. I'd be shocked if other teams didn't have similar rates of success. Hopefully that gives some kind of perspective on what we should and shouldn't be expecting out of 2nd round picks.

Use this tool to look at other teams: https://www.baseball-reference.com/d...e=franch_round

I bet they took Solis in having a Good player from the 98 draft.

[thatcoolguy_22]

He had me sold at "Great velocity and great command."

[dougdirt]

I just grabbed a random team, in this case the Expos/Nationals, and looked at their 2nd round picks over the past 20+ years:

That's 3 decent players out of the last 22 drafts. I'd be shocked if other teams didn't have similar rates of success. Hopefully that gives some kind of perspective on what we should and shouldn't be expecting out of 2nd round picks.

Use this tool to look at other teams: https://www.baseball-reference.com/d...e=franch_round

Expectations for the draft rarely line up with reality. While I'm sure Trent, Fay, Nightengale, Sheldon - all of them, have gotten more crazies than I have in the last two days, it's as if the expectation is that you should get an All-Star in round 1, an every day above-average guy in round 2, and a solid every day guy in round 3, and then in rounds 4-10 you should probably get at least big leaguers of some sort. It's frustrating, but I've been doing my best to just ignore the people that I feel are crazies this year. It's not easy, as I'm sure you may have noticed that I tend to be a tad argumentative.

[REDREAD]

I get it, but it almost seems as though you'd be forgiving of a dart throw in these rounds since the success rates are so low anyway.

And another big piece here is, what does the guy become even if he "hits?" Did we grab a guy who, best case, might profile as a closer at some point?

If you're just gonna blindly toss darts, at least aim for the spots in the middle.

If one of these guys (Gray or Richardson) becomes a closer , or even a solid middle reliever, that is a big success story.
Think about how much money the Reds had to spend to get Chapman and Inglesis, who are "just" closers.
Good to great relief pitching (not even elite) is worth a premium now.

As far as the dart tossing thing.. I will just speak for myself. I do not follow any of these guys. I can not even name a player that the Reds did not draft, so I am not going to praise or criticize picks this year. However, they seem like reasonable picks based on what has been printed.. Although in all fairness, every kid drafted has some glowing stuff printed about him.. No one writes an article that says "This kid has no chance of making the big leagues"..

I think it would be fun (as Kal suggested) for people to name their alternate picks if they do not like the picks the Reds made.

Edit: Just read your second post.. Now I see what you are saying.. you'd prefer to draft starting pitchers. That is a reasonable point.

[fearofpopvol1]

You know, Gray has looked pretty good so far. I didn't have a strong opinion about him either way at the time he was drafted, and it's still early of course, but he looks to be pretty consistent at this stage.

[ScotlandRed]

Have to figure he skips Billings next year and jumps to Dayton to start off the season. He’s been our brightest draft pick so far from 2018.