Farm W-L records

[RedlegJake]

For those who believe minor league systems W-L record is somewhat predictive of how the ML team will do, here 's some disheartening news:

Top 5 winning systems
Tampa .593
LAD. .588
Hou . .571
Phil . .553
StL. .543

And now the worse 3
SF . .429
Ch C. .438
Cincy. .440


You draw your own conclusions but the only outlier is the Cubs and their system is depleted by promotions. Winning counts...development must be first but part of that is inculcating a win always mentality. Once again, despite a fairly highly rated farm, the Reds are at the bottom when it comes to winning.

I've heard it said winning doesn't matter that much in the minors but I disagree who!eheartedly.

[cumberlandreds]

I think it does matter most of the time. At the very least if they win in the minors they get that mindset of wanting to win and not just playing for themselves. IMO its very damning for an organization to have really bad organizational records. Just shows things are not going well down on the farm which means things aren't going to be getting better in big leagues.

[WrongVerb]

Maybe this is part of the reason the farm director was re-assigned.

[mace]

I'd be curious to see those numbers expanded over 3-5 years. I suspect it would deepen whatever conclusions are to be drawn from this. The Reds system has been chronically struggling during the rebuild.

[Kc61]

Wonder if this relates in part to Reds pushing prospects up the chain. Reds obviously are anxious to get good prospects to the big leagues.

For example, I recall Daytona had a knock-out team earlier this season. Several key guys were pushed up to Pensacola and Daytona’s record is now only two games over .500.

I don’t know if the Reds’ promotion approach is unusual, but it could result in weaker records as good prospects move into higher levels and must adjust, possible struggle for awhile, etc.

[Danny Serafini]

The AZL team going 13-42 certainly put a big drag on the winning percentage

[Vander]

Meh. Not that I think winning isn't important, but I think the value of it is overblown a bit. It says more about the overall depth of a system than its top end, and the top end is really what's most important about a farm system in the end. The value of guys like Senzel, Trammell, Greene, Santillan and India aren't suppressed because the AZL Reds suck.

[paulrichjr]

Meh. Not that I think winning isn't important, but I think the value of it is overblown a bit. It says more about the overall depth of a system than its top end, and the top end is really what's most important about a farm system in the end. The value of guys like Senzel, Trammell, Greene, Santillan and India aren't suppressed because the AZL Reds suck.

I agreed with this a month ago but not as much today. After watching a bunch of players that weren't "top end" come from a hugely winning environment in the Cardinals AAA Memphis Redbirds team and perform in the big leagues to a level that doesn't seem to come out of the Reds system near enough, I can't say I agree as much now.

[dougdirt]

The bottom 5-8 players on each team alter the record a lot more than the top 5-8 players do. Go look at the Greeneville Reds roster. It's loaded with actual dudes. Real prospects. They've got a losing record because the bottom of that roster has been very, very bad. That doesn't mean the team has no prospects. It doesn't mean that those guys aren't going to be good in the future. That Michael Bono walked 13 guys and had 10 wild pitches in 4.1 innings doesn't tell us ANYTHING about how Josiah Gray and Miguel Hernandez are going to perform for the Reds in 2026. That Ricky Karcher has an ERA over 8.00 doesn't tell us anything about Rylan Thomas or Jonathan Willems or Mike Siani.

Would you like to have winning all over the place? Sure. But the reality is that any given farm team has 2-3 future big leaguers on it that will be more than a cup-of-coffee guy. Those are the guys that matter.

[OGB]

The AZL team going 13-42 certainly put a big drag on the winning percentage

While I agree with Redlegs Jake's premise, I think there is some legit reasoning behind this failure that isn't entirely the Reds fault.
The DSL and AZL teams are a combined 33 games under .500.
These rosters are made up almost entirely of international signings.
Until the shortcomings of this current system are addressed, teams like the Dodgers and Yankees will continue to get all the best international talent.
There needs to be some sort of international draft system.

That and the lack of a salary cap are the two biggest hindrances to more competitive play in baseball.

[*BaseClogger*]

How do the Dodgers and Yankees have an advantage in international amateur signings? Isn't there a cap on spending?

[dougdirt]

How do the Dodgers and Yankees have an advantage in international amateur signings? Isn't there a cap on spending?

There has been the last two years. But that means any international guy that's 19 or older was brought in under old rules which gave big advantages to those willing to spend. Guys signed in 2014, for example, are 20 years old today. That's a Low-A prospect.

[RED VAN HOT]

There has been the last two years. But that means any international guy that's 19 or older was brought in under old rules which gave big advantages to those willing to spend. Guys signed in 2014, for example, are 20 years old today. That's a Low-A prospect.

How does the posting system in Japan play into this? Don't teams have to put up money just to negotiate?

[mth123]

The bottom 5-8 players on each team alter the record a lot more than the top 5-8 players do. Go look at the Greeneville Reds roster. It's loaded with actual dudes. Real prospects. They've got a losing record because the bottom of that roster has been very, very bad. That doesn't mean the team has no prospects. It doesn't mean that those guys aren't going to be good in the future. That Michael Bono walked 13 guys and had 10 wild pitches in 4.1 innings doesn't tell us ANYTHING about how Josiah Gray and Miguel Hernandez are going to perform for the Reds in 2026. That Ricky Karcher has an ERA over 8.00 doesn't tell us anything about Rylan Thomas or Jonathan Willems or Mike Siani.

Would you like to have winning all over the place? Sure. But the reality is that any given farm team has 2-3 future big leaguers on it that will be more than a cup-of-coffee guy. Those are the guys that matter.

Adding Greeneville spread the talent out more. Guys in AZ, Billing, Greenville and Dayton are spread over 4 teams when it would have been 3 last year. The bottom of all of those rosters has to be worse as a result and I think the W-L record suffered as a result, The Reds basically added an expansion team effect to their own organization this year. It provides more opportunity, which is good, but a lot of that opportunity is being given to guys who would be stuck in extended Spring Training in prior seasons. Seems the teams should be less likely to win. .

I'm more concerned that guys seem like promising guys in A and A+ and fall flat in AA.

[RED VAN HOT]

Adding Greeneville spread the talent out more. Guys in AZ, Billing, Greenville and Dayton are spread over 4 teams when it would have been 3 last year. The bottom of all of those rosters has to be worse as a result and I think the W-L record suffered as a result, The Reds basically added an expansion team effect to their own organization this year. It provides more opportunity, which is good, but a lot of that opportunity is being given to guys who would be stuck in extended Spring Training in prior seasons. Seems the teams should be less likely to win. .

I'm more concerned that guys seem like promising guys in A and A+ and fall flat in AA.

I agree. Many of the AZL players would not have been brought to the states and some of the rookie league players would have been in the AZL. A winning culture is nice, but they certainly can get a pass this year. I would expect the transition to benefit A and A+ next year.