If the biggest problem is that everyone stays healthy and they are all performing so well that they all deserve to be starters it will be a very good year for the Reds.
If the biggest problem is that everyone stays healthy and they are all performing so well that they all deserve to be starters it will be a very good year for the Reds.
Griffey012 (03-16-2019)
Trea Turner (top of order) played 162 games last year and had over 740 PA.
Freddie Freeman (mid order) played 162 games and got 704 PA.
700 seems a fair amount of PA to estimate for a given position.
If Puig, Senzel, Winker and Kemp are all healthy (and performing) there is no reason for Schebler to sniff 250 PA. Make it 150 as he is a PH and sub for Senzel (if those are your OF who else will?) once a week or so.
So using 2100...
Let’s go
Puig 600
Senzel 500
Winker 500
Kemp 350
Schebler 150
But that’s a pipe dream world of complete health.
Ok, I used 600 PAs per position. Let’s use 700.
Puig 550.
Senzel 450.
Winker 400.
Kemp 350
Schebler 350.
In this scenario, Schebler gets bumped up because I don’t see them overusing Senzel in CF. Nick may have some AAA time and is a rookie.
I guess this works ok although I’d still question the utility of Schebler at 350 PAs. I would prefer a better defensive player instead.
I give Winker a slight advantage over Kemp because Reds see much fewer lefty pitchers than righties.
Fine, I can see that — but there’ss no value in keeping Scott Schebler for 150 PAs. If this is the Reds’ projection I’d move Scott. (Or move a different OF and elevate Scheb’s PT.)
I still feel it’s too many guys who are mainly offensive players, not enough defense, not enough CF, not enougn versatility. But Reds seem ok with it, so whatever.
Last edited by Kc61; 03-15-2019 at 11:28 PM.
So you have Schebler getting 50 less at bats than Winker? Barring injury I seriously doubt this happens. And if there is a serious injury people will be mighty glad none of these players were traded.
I will say this. I don't get why the Reds didn't have Winker and Kemp doing work at 1b this spring. Votto has already talked about how players like Edgar Martinez were able to play well in their late 30s by getting more days off, and how that is something he's going to try. My guess is there is a spot there once a week.
Gee, that's too bad because one of their OF's is about all I'd want back from them.
Dietrich will back up first base most likely.
The Schebler assumed PA number is higher in my scenario because he’s the only backup in CF. The Winker number is lower because Kemp is sharing his position.
All this confirms to me that the current OF mix is sub-optimal. Particularly with a four man bench. Not for lack of talent, they’re all good guys. But too many are LFers, not enough CFers, not enough who play multiple positions.
Anyone need a Finnegan?
"One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."
OhioRiverBarge (03-15-2019)
Let’s assume Kemp and Winker are both staying. Gives Reds a good lefty-righty combo in LF and bench.
In that case, Reds might be better served replacing Schebler/Iglesias with a super utility guy who plays CF and some middle infield. A poor man’s Marwin Gonzalez. Does such a player even exist? Probably a non-starter to find that perfect fit fourth bench player.
Last edited by Kc61; 03-16-2019 at 12:11 AM.
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