Turn Off Ads?
Page 2 of 6 FirstFirst 123456 LastLast
Results 16 to 30 of 81

Thread: Nats need an OF

  1. #16
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Posts
    2,186

    Re: Nats need an OF

    If the biggest problem is that everyone stays healthy and they are all performing so well that they all deserve to be starters it will be a very good year for the Reds.

  2. Likes:

    Griffey012 (03-16-2019)


  3. Turn Off Ads?
  4. #17
    Member kaldaniels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    17,848

    Re: Nats need an OF

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Assume 1800 PAs available for the five main outfielders. Assume no major injuries and all remain Reds all season.

    Here’s one guess at the breakdown. Round numbers.

    Puig 500 PAs.
    Senzel 400 PAs.
    Winker 350 PAs.
    Kemp 300 PAs.
    Schebler 250 PAs.

    What other scenarios do people see? Frankly, I don’t think it’s worth keeping Schebler for 250 PAs. And I’d like to give Winker more than 350. I don’t find this very satisfying, but it would be my expectation.
    I would think 3 outfield spots x 162 games gives you 2100 PA.

    That’s assuming health and those 5 staying on the roster as your OF. Maybe bump some numbers up.

  5. #18
    Member kaldaniels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    17,848

    Re: Nats need an OF

    Trea Turner (top of order) played 162 games last year and had over 740 PA.

    Freddie Freeman (mid order) played 162 games and got 704 PA.

    700 seems a fair amount of PA to estimate for a given position.

  6. #19
    Member kaldaniels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    17,848

    Re: Nats need an OF

    If Puig, Senzel, Winker and Kemp are all healthy (and performing) there is no reason for Schebler to sniff 250 PA. Make it 150 as he is a PH and sub for Senzel (if those are your OF who else will?) once a week or so.

    So using 2100...

    Let’s go
    Puig 600
    Senzel 500
    Winker 500
    Kemp 350
    Schebler 150

    But that’s a pipe dream world of complete health.

  7. #20
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    35,377

    Re: Nats need an OF

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Trea Turner (top of order) played 162 games last year and had over 740 PA.

    Freddie Freeman (mid order) played 162 games and got 704 PA.

    700 seems a fair amount of PA to estimate for a given position.
    Ok, I used 600 PAs per position. Let’s use 700.

    Puig 550.

    Senzel 450.

    Winker 400.

    Kemp 350

    Schebler 350.

    In this scenario, Schebler gets bumped up because I don’t see them overusing Senzel in CF. Nick may have some AAA time and is a rookie.

    I guess this works ok although I’d still question the utility of Schebler at 350 PAs. I would prefer a better defensive player instead.

    I give Winker a slight advantage over Kemp because Reds see much fewer lefty pitchers than righties.

  8. #21
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    35,377

    Re: Nats need an OF

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    If Puig, Senzel, Winker and Kemp are all healthy (and performing) there is no reason for Schebler to sniff 250 PA. Make it 150 as he is a PH and sub for Senzel (if those are your OF who else will?) once a week or so.

    So using 2100...

    Let’s go
    Puig 600
    Senzel 500
    Winker 500
    Kemp 350
    Schebler 150

    But that’s a pipe dream world of complete health.
    Fine, I can see that — but there’ss no value in keeping Scott Schebler for 150 PAs. If this is the Reds’ projection I’d move Scott. (Or move a different OF and elevate Scheb’s PT.)

    I still feel it’s too many guys who are mainly offensive players, not enough defense, not enough CF, not enougn versatility. But Reds seem ok with it, so whatever.
    Last edited by Kc61; 03-15-2019 at 11:28 PM.

  9. #22
    Member kaldaniels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    17,848

    Re: Nats need an OF

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I see no value in keeping Scott Schebler for 150 PAs. If this is the projection — and it could be — I’d move Scott. Of course, if Kemp were moved then Scheb’s PT increases.

    I still feel it’s too many guys who are mainly offensive players, not enough defense, not enough CF, not enougn versatility.
    150 for the backup CF who will also PH/defensive sub perhaps is gonna happen.

  10. #23
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Posts
    2,186

    Re: Nats need an OF

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Ok, I used 600 PAs per position. Let’s use 700.

    Puig 550.

    Senzel 450.

    Winker 400.

    Kemp 350

    Schebler 350.

    In this scenario, Schebler gets bumped up because I don’t see them overusing Senzel in CF. Nick may have some AAA time and is a rookie.

    I guess this works ok although I’d still question the utility of Schebler at 350 PAs. I would prefer a better defensive player instead.

    I give Winker a slight advantage over Kemp because Reds see much fewer lefty pitchers than righties.
    So you have Schebler getting 50 less at bats than Winker? Barring injury I seriously doubt this happens. And if there is a serious injury people will be mighty glad none of these players were traded.

    I will say this. I don't get why the Reds didn't have Winker and Kemp doing work at 1b this spring. Votto has already talked about how players like Edgar Martinez were able to play well in their late 30s by getting more days off, and how that is something he's going to try. My guess is there is a spot there once a week.

  11. #24
    Member corkedbat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2001
    Location
    Lexington
    Posts
    11,713

    Re: Nats need an OF

    Gee, that's too bad because one of their OF's is about all I'd want back from them.

  12. #25
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    35,377

    Re: Nats need an OF

    Quote Originally Posted by NeilHamburger View Post
    So you have Schebler getting 50 less at bats than Winker? Barring injury I seriously doubt this happens. And if there is a serious injury people will be mighty glad none of these players were traded.

    I will say this. I don't get why the Reds didn't have Winker and Kemp doing work at 1b this spring. Votto has already talked about how players like Edgar Martinez were able to play well in their late 30s by getting more days off, and how that is something he's going to try. My guess is there is a spot there once a week.
    Dietrich will back up first base most likely.

    The Schebler assumed PA number is higher in my scenario because he’s the only backup in CF. The Winker number is lower because Kemp is sharing his position.

    All this confirms to me that the current OF mix is sub-optimal. Particularly with a four man bench. Not for lack of talent, they’re all good guys. But too many are LFers, not enough CFers, not enough who play multiple positions.

  13. #26
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    45,729

    Re: Nats need an OF

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    If Puig, Senzel, Winker and Kemp are all healthy (and performing) there is no reason for Schebler to sniff 250 PA. Make it 150 as he is a PH and sub for Senzel (if those are your OF who else will?) once a week or so.

    So using 2100...

    Let’s go
    Puig 600
    Senzel 500
    Winker 500
    Kemp 350
    Schebler 150

    But that’s a pipe dream world of complete health.
    Well, except Kemp's apparently fallen into an open manhole in this scenario.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

  14. #27
    Member Kingspoint's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    All around
    Posts
    12,177

    Re: Nats need an OF

    Anyone need a Finnegan?
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

  15. Likes:

    OhioRiverBarge (03-15-2019)

  16. #28
    Member kaldaniels's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    17,848

    Re: Nats need an OF

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Well, except Kemp's apparently fallen into an open manhole in this scenario.
    I mean this is how I’d draw it up.

    Winker is better than Kemp vs RHP. If there is a better way to spread the OF around I’m all ears. Or one can argue Winker’s results vs RHP are a SSS. But I don’t think so, at least to the extent Kemp is better than Winker vs RHP.

  17. #29
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2001
    Posts
    35,377

    Re: Nats need an OF

    Let’s assume Kemp and Winker are both staying. Gives Reds a good lefty-righty combo in LF and bench.

    In that case, Reds might be better served replacing Schebler/Iglesias with a super utility guy who plays CF and some middle infield. A poor man’s Marwin Gonzalez. Does such a player even exist? Probably a non-starter to find that perfect fit fourth bench player.
    Last edited by Kc61; 03-16-2019 at 12:11 AM.

  18. #30
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2000
    Location
    Boston
    Posts
    45,729

    Re: Nats need an OF

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I mean this is how I’d draw it up.

    Winker is better than Kemp vs RHP. If there is a better way to spread the OF around I’m all ears. Or one can argue Winker’s results vs RHP are a SSS. But I don’t think so, at least to the extent Kemp is better than Winker vs RHP.
    I get that's how you'd like to see it, but far as I can tell Kemp's getting the bulk of the starts in LF and hitting 3rd.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | Gallen5862 | Plus Plus | Powel Crosley | RedlegJake | The Operator