Keeping Tabs: NL Central

[OhioRiverBarge]

The NL Central is seen by many to be the most competitive division in baseball, but it’s also the tightest.

As of tonight, the last place team (your redlegs) is only 6.5 games behind the first place team (baby bears).

As of right now, there are 14 (out of 25) teams from the *other* 5 divisions that are more than 6.5 games out of first place in their respective divisions.

Only two divisions, including NLC, have a last place team with 20 or more wins (ALW is the other; rangers with 20 wins).

The closest gap between a last place team and a first place team outside of the 6.5 in the NLC are in the ALW at 9.5, where there is a three way tie for last, and the second place team in the division is 9 games back.


Divisions by Run Differential:

ALW: +93 (just so happens the Astros themselves—first place team—have a run diff of +93)
NLC: +75
NLW: +22
ALE: +10
ALC: -94
NLE: -106

[OhioRiverBarge]

Just realized looking at this that of the 25 teams outside the NLC, only 6 teams are not in first place, but are less than 6.5 games back.

So that means that right now 10 teams are not in first place but within 6.5 games, and 4 of those 10 are in the NL Central.

[adkindo]

If this team really wants to contend in the division into the 2nd half, starting Tuesday they will have their chance to make a statement. 9 straight games against NL Central teams, the first 5 on the road against the 2 division leaders (2 @ Milwaukee & 3 @ Chicago), then 4 @ home against the Pirates. We could come out of these 9 days nearly out of the race or right in the thick of things within 2 or 3 games of the leader. I think we would be in great shape if we could find a way to split with Milwaukee, win 2 of 3 against the Cubs, and 3 of 4 against the Pirates to go 6-3, but that will not be easy. Also, if we can beat the Dodgers tomorrow, a 6-3 stretch after would get us to .500!

[RiverfrontRed]

The Reds need a real winning streak of 8-10 games to put themselves into real contention.

[Kc61]

Just realized looking at this that of the 25 teams outside the NLC, only 6 teams are not in first place, but are less than 6.5 games back.

So that means that right now 10 teams are not in first place but within 6.5 games, and 4 of those 10 are in the NL Central.

The Reds problem is not games behind. That’s manageable for the division and wild card. The problem is the number of teams ahead of them, some very good ones.

Reds trail in Central by only 6.5 but four teams ahead of them all over .500, Cubs over .600. Brewers six games over .500.

Second wild card, Reds are 4.5 out, trail 5 teams, all at or over .500, although none more than five over .500.

Second wild card seems more manageable although some good teams to beat out there too. DBacks, Braves among them.

[PuffyPig]

The only team in front of us which really concerns me is the Cubs.

The Cards are a mess with poor pitching generally.

The Brewers also have poor pitching.

The Pirates are the Pirates.

The Reds just need to get some help from their hitting and they’ll pass those teams.


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[GAC]

We're a quarter of the way through the season (116 games left). The pitching has been there consistently. A BIG plus IMO. And the offense is starting to come alive. Taking the series from two 1st place teams (Cubs, Dodgers) was definitely a sign to me that this team is progressing, we can compete, a team that should not be dismissed.

But baseball is still a game of unpredictability IMO. I don't put this kind of "emotional pressure" on myself or the team (players), especially at this stage of the season, and say "OK. Over the next 2-3 weeks we gotta do this, this, and this - or else our season is over. We're through!"

We're 6.5 games out, but at this stage of the season - while I'm not saying that's insignificant - it means very little to me other than "We're hanging in there right now".

And division rivalries are just that to me - rivalries. Of course I want to beat them. Every game if possible. Because they're our rivals (and we hate them). But why are they assigned any more significance then any other opponent (series)? I certainly understand how it can help one to gain ground within the division when playing those division rivals. But if we go 6-3 over the next 9 games vs division opponents (Brewers, Cubs, Pirates), then turn around and go 3-6, then the only thing we can pat ourselves on the back for is that we took series from division rivals IMO, while still spinning our wheels. I certainly understand the significance if it was the last few weeks of the season, we're in a fight for the division with one or more of those teams, and those series could determine the winner. But the remaining schedule (116 games) is pretty 50-50 between games within the division and outside.

I'm simply enjoying watching/listening to the games, and I'm more then content to see how it all unfolds without putting up all these goals they have to meet as the season progresses, or else.

The game is still too unpredictable IMO.

[Captain Hook]

The Reds need a real winning streak of 8-10 games to put themselves into real contention.

At least this is the case. Last year at some point they won 8 in a row and it meant nothing.

[mamell]

The twisted part and which makes my brain want to just get up and leave my head is the differential with the Reds and Pirates.
Reds have scored 23 more runs than the Pirates and given up 47 fewer runs.
We're +29 run differential while they're -41.. It just seems inherently unfair..and yet they're in 3rd place while we're in last.. The casual observer might think they're just cheating.

[mamell]

At least this is the case. Last year at some point they won 8 in a row and it meant nothing.

They pretty much have to string several long winning streaks together. One or two don't make that much of a difference unless they're all against our own division leader..example: sweeping the Cubs and Brewers a few series.. Otherwise a 10 game win streak against, say Miami is kind of meaningless and gains almost no ground unless our own divisional leader(s) are losing their games at the same time..
We could in theory sweep the Giants, Marlins, Orioles and Royals, but unless the Cubs and Brewers are also losing their games we're just treading water..

[HammerTime]

Slow and steady. Keep winning series.

[SunDeck]

It is honestly amazing to me that there is a thread discussing the Reds' chances at winning the division or making the wildcard and that it is not sarcasm. While it may be too soon to declare our long nightmare over, on a personal level I certainly feel as though there is a corner to be turned in the near future with this team and I anticipate more, and possibly more realistic discussions like this in the next few years. And so I am thrilled to know that in June our Reds could find themselves in a position to be at the top of a very tough division, let alone be around .500 after such an abysmal start. But I am even more thrilled to know that pitching is what got them here and that pitching is precisely what they said they would address in the off season. When is the last time the front office actually did anything so deliberately competent?

[mth123]

It is honestly amazing to me that there is a thread discussing the Reds' chances at winning the division or making the wildcard and that it is not sarcasm. While it may be too soon to declare our long nightmare over, on a personal level I certainly feel as though there is a corner to be turned in the near future with this team and I anticipate more, and possibly more realistic discussions like this in the next few years. And so I am thrilled to know that in June our Reds could find themselves in a position to be at the top of a very tough division, let alone be around .500 after such an abysmal start. But I am even more thrilled to know that pitching is what got them here and that pitching is precisely what they said they would address in the off season. When is the last time the front office actually did anything so deliberately competent?

Memorial Day Weekend is next week-end and that was the time I wanted to wait and see for deciding on this team. The rotation is competitive, but has fallen back to earth a bit with Disco and Gray both looking more like back-end guys. Roark has been better, but his long established profile is also as a back-end starter. I think the Reds should make a push for Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith from the Giants. A late inning arm and a frontline starter make this team legit. Scooter's return along with Puig and Votto finding their strokes should be enough on the offensive side where Senzlel and Suarez are studs and Winker and Dietrich are solid producers.

I'd have an eye on signing Bumgarner long term. I'd offer India, Santillan, Schebler, Siri and Disco and see what the Giants say. The Giants really need youth. If the Reds could add Bumgarner and Will Smith in that deal, it would really make this a fun season.

[Tom Servo]

Memorial Day Weekend is next week-end and that was the time I wanted to wait and see for deciding on this team. The rotation is competitive, but has fallen back to earth a bit with Disco and Gray both looking more like back-end guys. Roark has been better, but his long established profile is also as a back-end starter. I think the Reds should make a push for Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith from the Giants. A late inning arm and a frontline starter make this team legit. Scooter's return along with Puig and Votto finding their strokes should be enough on the offensive side where Senzlel and Suarez are studs and Winker and Dietrich are solid producers.

I'd have an eye on signing Bumgarner long term. I'd offer India, Santillan, Schebler, Siri and Disco and see what the Giants say. The Giants really need youth. If the Reds could add Bumgarner and Will Smith in that deal, it would really make this a fun season.

I had a similar thought about Bumgarner, but remember that he and Puig are blood enemies.

[SunDeck]

I had a similar thought about Bumgarner, but remember that he and Puig are blood enemies.

Bumgarner > Puig