The Reds currently should be sitting at a .567 winning percentage and 2nd place in the division, based on Runs Scored/Runs Against. They currently have a fascinating +24 Runs differential and yet are 7.5 games back and in last place at 21-27. I find in these situations you'd have to either blame the manager or luck.
Anyone else with any thoughts on the RS/RA stat? If it is just luck, can we expect the Reds to gradually move toward .560 for the rest of the year?
redsrule2500
Go Reds!
“I’m a normal guy blessed with the ability to hit a baseball.” - Sean Casey
Well, if I had absolutely no need for oxygen I'd my breath waiting. Unfortunately I need a bit of it so there's your answer.. I'm not holding my breath.
They have games in which they have won with scores of:
14-0
12-1
9-2
12-4
7-0
with all of the 1 run losses it tends to be a bit skewed.
The television crews left and about 10 reporters remained in the room. That's when Price took his turn doing the talking.
What followed was a five-minute, 34-second expletive-filled tirade. The final tally was 77 uses of the "F" word or a variant and 11 uses of a vulgar term for feces (two bovine, one equine).
Bob Borkowski (05-21-2019)
This has been covered extensively in other threads. The answer is maybe, but can’t count on good future results based on current RS/RA.Originally Posted by redsrule2500
There’s no guarantee the Reds W-L record will approach the current RS/RA record. The contrary may happen, the RS/RA may approach the current losing record over time. Or something in between.
The RS/RA for this team is largely based on several blowout wins. Those outnumber the blowout losses. If you eliminate the relatively few blowout games, the Reds RS/RA may be negative - it was negative at some earlier point.
The Reds have already played 47 games and vastly underperformed the RS/RA. They can’t have those games back. Even if they were to play .567 ball going forward, they still have the current .447 on their record for the first approx 30% of the season. The games still count.
It was well articulated in earlier posts, probably makes sense to review all those if you’re interested.
Last edited by Kc61; 05-20-2019 at 03:56 PM.
We can’t discount runs scored in blowout wins by the Reds without discounting runs scored for every team in blowout wins. We need to stop saying we shouldn’t count those runs.
All Runs Count.
Runs for and runs against
Bob Sheed (05-20-2019),Boss-Hog (05-23-2019),bubbachunk (05-23-2019),goreds2 (05-20-2019),membengal (05-21-2019),RedlegJake (05-20-2019),redsrule2500 (05-20-2019)
I agree - and it's not even necessarily a very defensible position. I can see situations where the opposition is placing a 3rd baseman on the mound, perhaps you remove the 8th and 9th inning runs, but that's it...
redsrule2500
“I’m a normal guy blessed with the ability to hit a baseball.” - Sean Casey
unless it's sandoval, in which case the reds wouldn't be able to hit him anyway.
Except the quality of those teams is not representative of the Reds schedule.
The Reds were +20 in their home games against Miami.
They are +4 against everyone else.
We can kid ourselves to consider Miami at home as a recurring event, a representative series. It’s not.
As the sample gets larger one can argue a good RS-RA will hold up. But not now. One or two big series can skew the results this early.
Last edited by Kc61; 05-20-2019 at 04:55 PM.
Shoeless Jeff (05-21-2019),Todd Gack (05-20-2019)
I mean yes they’re probably not a .567 winning pct good, but if they’re basically .500 against winning teams and blow out all the bad teams, that suggests a team that should be well above .500
Except they don’t blow out all the bad teams. They went 5-5 against the A’s and Giants recently. I’m saying a few games are skewing the pythag, most against weak teams.
I’m not saying the Reds won’t start winning more, but I don’t think the May 20 RS/RA is particularly relevant to future projection.
Again, it’s discussed pretty fully in other threads, I’ll rely on that to make more detailed arguments.
Last edited by Kc61; 05-20-2019 at 06:08 PM.
If they simply got the 3 wins against the fish and an average record against the rest, they would have 25 wins and be in a wild card spot... I think that’s a pretty reasonable viewpoint of where they “deserve” to be at.
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membengal (05-21-2019),Wonderful Monds (05-23-2019)
We're +40 in 10 games vs the Giants and Marlins the other two last place teams in the NL. The runs in the Oakland series were 7-7 so that would make us -16 against the non last place teams in the NL. The Reds are 9-9 in May, and I think that's about what this team is a .500 club with Senzel in the lineup. Now if Votto and Puig wake up then maybe we can talk about .567.
Last edited by JCM11; 05-20-2019 at 04:37 PM.
Reds have a 4 game series vs the Marlins at the end of August, could be their shot to get back in it.
Go Gators!
Our guys capitalize in blowouts, when there is no pressure.
Against decent or better pitching, in high leverage situations, they crap down their leg.
What about all those games where the run differential is -1?
It’s such an odd stat,
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