.567 Winning % and 2nd Place

[757690]

Posters can argue about what the Reds “deserve” to be.

The question is what they will be in the future. If people think the RS/RA tells us or indicates that, i disagree for reasons that have been spelled out in various threads.

Correct. From Fangraphs:

Teams whose real winning percentages exceed their expected winning percentages are often referred to as ‘lucky’, and team who do the opposite are ‘unlucky’. This is a crutch, and it’s far from statistically rigorous. We should not pretend to be able to extract true talent level from two variables alone, and it’s clear that ‘luck’ strikes far more deeply than in simple runs scored and runs allowed in a season. A team with an expected winning percentage of .500 and an actual record of 77-85 is not ‘really’ an 81-win team

https://library.fangraphs.com/princi...ns-and-losses/

[Patrick Bateman]

Posters can argue about what the Reds “deserve” to be.

The question is what they will be in the future. If people think the RS/RA tells us or indicates that, i disagree for reasons that have been spelled out in various threads.

My point being, their run expectancy is likely to be a better predictor of their future record than the current record is.

I agree that I think the Miami series is a tad misleading.... which even when you account for that they are slightly above par.... and guess what, the marlins are in the league, we get to play them, and other teams do to, which I have not accounted for.

So even when accounting for that, they still have scored at a level indicative of a 85-87 win type of team. Not a world beater by any stretch but a team that has the ability to be a wild card contender. Unfortunately, with the hole already dug... they have to up the antsy to get back into that race.


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[TNRED]

I SHOULD be a retired billionaire married to a supermodel and living on my own tropical island but I am not.

[Assembly Hall]

I SHOULD be a retired billionaire married to a supermodel and living on my own tropical island but I am not.

But what is your run differential?

[jojo]

You are what your record says you are.

[redsrule2500]

You are what your record says you are.

Currently, yes, but what is indicative of future record?

[Alabama]

Currently, yes, but what is indicative of future record?

Umm do you watch the games?
I would say we look like a slightly below 500 team, regardless of what the #s show. We pretty much don’t compete against contenders 1-3 pitchers. Just non competitive ab after another.
We don’t manufacture runs although Senzel looks good at the top now. Hey on and get take a bag when needed.
Our 2 and 4 or 5 hole hitters(Puig and Votto) have been auto outs.
Our defense outside of Iglesias is just bad. Winker really hurts in the field.
Pitching has been amazing. But who expects that to continue at this clip?
Use your eyes and don’t be a slave to #s. Baseball is still baseball

[Umkubas]

The Reds currently should be sitting at a .567 winning percentage and 2nd place in the division, based on Runs Scored/Runs Against. They currently have a fascinating +24 Runs differential and yet are 7.5 games back and in last place at 21-27. I find in these situations you'd have to either blame the manager or luck.

Anyone else with any thoughts on the RS/RA stat? If it is just luck, can we expect the Reds to gradually move toward .560 for the rest of the year?

The Cincinnati Reds are 21-26........the Reds do not need help losing games

[Todd Gack]

We are 23rd in Hitting War.
We are 1st in Pitching War.

That sounds like a perfect .500 team to me.

[Kc61]

Currently, yes, but what is indicative of future record?

Full, dispassionate analysis of the Reds team and it’s competition going forward.

Doesn’t boil down to a single number, ratio, or percentage published on the sports websites.

[jojo]

Currently, yes, but what is indicative of future record?

Not a team's current RS/RA.....

[redsrule2500]

Umm do you watch the games?
I would say we look like a slightly below 500 team, regardless of what the #s show. We pretty much don’t compete against contenders 1-3 pitchers. Just non competitive ab after another.
We don’t manufacture runs although Senzel looks good at the top now. Hey on and get take a bag when needed.
Our 2 and 4 or 5 hole hitters(Puig and Votto) have been auto outs.
Our defense outside of Iglesias is just bad. Winker really hurts in the field.
Pitching has been amazing. But who expects that to continue at this clip?
Use your eyes and don’t be a slave to #s. Baseball is still baseball

Isn't this what was done when average and RBI were the most important stats?

[JFLegal]

I agree - and it's not even necessarily a very defensible position. I can see situations where the opposition is placing a 3rd baseman on the mound, perhaps you remove the 8th and 9th inning runs, but that's it...

unless it's sandoval, in which case the reds wouldn't be able to hit him anyway.

[InsaneinthBrame]

The RS/RA winning expectation also expects an even distribution of those runs. But in the Reds case RS is not an even distribution. It has a lot of low run games and a lot of really high run scoring games that affects the W/L expectations.

Because in baseball when you are real bad offensively you can not score less than zero but when you are on you can score 12,14 ect amounts of runs that can skew run expectations because they are farther from the peak distribution. It is also a flaw in run matrix. It is also part of the flaw in the argument against bunting.

[JFLegal]

The RS/RA winning expectation also expects an even distribution of those runs. But in the Reds case RS is not an even distribution. It has a lot of low run games and a lot of really high run scoring games that affects the W/L expectations.

Because in baseball when you are real bad offensively you can not score less than zero but when you are on you can score 12,14 ect amounts of runs that can skew run expectations because they are farther from the peak distribution. It is also a flaw in run matrix. It is also part of the flaw in the argument against bunting.

please expound on how there is a flaw in the argument against bunting. sacrifice bunting (with the exception of the pitcher doing it) means giving up outs, which is bad baseball according to the math. at least, that is my understanding, but if there is legitimate information out there that contradicts what i am saying, i am all ears.