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Thread: Rece Hinds, 3B - 2019 2nd round pick, 49th overall

  1. #46
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    Re: Rece Hinds, 3B - 2019 2nd round pick, 49th overall

    Quote Originally Posted by Vander View Post
    I say it's an extreme longshot because the vast majority of 2nd rounders, especially high schoolers, never make it to the majors. Baseball's hard. Most people don't make it. But he has the upside that, if he does make it, he could be an absolute star.

    If you take a look at every team's history of 2nd round picks, you'll see that VERY few are people you've ever actually heard of.
    i hear you man. you just seemed to be, imo, going out of your way to declare hinds an even bigger longshot than the typical second-round longshot. everyone knows second-rounders have the odds stacked against them, but it was just odd to me that you seemed to think his odds were even greater. i saw it the opposite way. instead of taking a guy in the second round like kevin franklin who was projected to be like a 4th rounder iirc, rece hinds was projected to be a top-40 pick. and the reds got him at 49. with everyone in the game saying he has incredible natural power, and has good makeup.

    to me, this is exactly the type of second rounder who has a better chance of making it than most second rounders, not the other way around. although, again, i do agree all second-rounders are longshots. i just don't think that hinds is some extreme longshot.

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  4. #47
    Wait... What? Vander's Avatar
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    Re: Rece Hinds, 3B - 2019 2nd round pick, 49th overall

    Quote Originally Posted by JFLegal View Post
    i hear you man. you just seemed to be, imo, going out of your way to declare hinds an even bigger longshot than the typical second-round longshot. everyone knows second-rounders have the odds stacked against them, but it was just odd to me that you seemed to think his odds were even greater. i saw it the opposite way. instead of taking a guy in the second round like kevin franklin who was projected to be like a 4th rounder iirc, rece hinds was projected to be a top-40 pick. and the reds got him at 49. with everyone in the game saying he has incredible natural power, and has good makeup.

    to me, this is exactly the type of second rounder who has a better chance of making it than most second rounders, not the other way around. although, again, i do agree all second-rounders are longshots. i just don't think that hinds is some extreme longshot.
    He is more highly regarded than Franklin, for sure. Franklin was the same type of player as Hinds, but more of a "poor man's" version of him. You seem to be ignoring the part where I compared him to freakin' Stanton and Judge. How is that being hard on the guy? I think he's awesome!

    I honestly don't know where your confusion is, dude. There are two kinds of prospects. Floor guys and Ceiling guys. The floor guys have a lower bust rate, but their high end isn't very exciting. Ceiling guys can turn into superstars, but when they don't hit those ceilings, they end up flaming out more easily. 2nd rounders already have a high bust rate, so when you combine that with a high ceiling, low floor prospect, you get a higher bust rate. It's not rocket surgery.

    And Hinds is that type of guy because low hit tools, historically, lead to higher bust rates than any other tool for a hitter. The high power gives him the high ceiling.
    Last edited by Vander; 06-04-2019 at 10:25 PM.

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  6. #48
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    Re: Rece Hinds - 2019 2nd round pick, 49th overall

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Sounds like a good pick, but uh, man it seems like every early round player the Reds have taken the last few years has been a big project type, someone you’re gonna have to wait a long time to see what happens. Really isn’t bringing their window any closer to the players they have right now.
    They just drafted Senzel, already in the majors, and India, a top college hitter in the last few years. Then they drafted the top college pitcher who should move relatively quickly.

    Any high school player is going to have a fairly long timeline, and most guys outside of the first round are going to be projects of some sort. I don't think the Reds drafting philosophy is any different from most teams


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  7. #49
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    Re: Rece Hinds, 3B - 2019 2nd round pick, 49th overall

    Strikes me as very Franklinish...unimpressed
    99% of all numbers only tell 33% of the story so when looking at the numbers remember that numbers is plural...

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    Re: Rece Hinds, 3B - 2019 2nd round pick, 49th overall

    People upset with this pick seem to be people who are just trying to be unhappy. None of us really know anything about Hinds or whether he'll stick. People are comparing him to Franklin, even though no scouts put them in the same area from a skills standpoint. In fact, most lists had him higher than where the Reds took him, with some even thinking he could sneak into the 1st round. The value was good, and I haven't seen any people who cover the draft criticize the pick.

    What we do know is that most 2nd round guys don't make an impact in the majors, and so the odds are going to be stacked against anybody that the Reds selected. Every option is going to have a high bust rate. That's why they're available in the 2nd round. If you're gambling with various levels of risk, it makes sense to take the one with the highest potential payout. And saying that the Reds historically have not developed this type of player is irrelevant. There is a new development staff with new hitting coaches and a new philosophy from the top down. Yes, the odds are that Hinds is not going to become a star, but the lack of success of Franklin/Rosa has no bearing on the current staff's ability to harness raw talent.

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    Re: Rece Hinds, 3B - 2019 2nd round pick, 49th overall

    Love this pick. Judge was the first comp that came to mind. I'd move him to RF ASAP and keep him there. Let him develop good range/reads out there and put that cannon arm to use.

    Of course his bat will be make or break element. Power looks more than legit; you can't ask for more from where he was picked. The fact that he's got good makeup and work ethic is gravy.

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  12. #52
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    Re: Rece Hinds, 3B - 2019 2nd round pick, 49th overall

    Every player ever who was picked with the #49 overall pick:

    Year Name Pos WAR G
    1995 Carlos Beltran(minors) OF 69.6 2586
    1975 Carney Lansford(minors) SS 40.4 1862
    1993 Jeff Suppan(minors) RHP 17.0 262
    1987 Derek Bell(minors) OF 13.1 1210
    1973 Len Barker(minors) RHP 12.6 47
    1980 Tim Burke(minors) RHP 12.1 475
    2006 Chris Tillman(minors) RHP 9.3 9
    1985 Lance Blankenship(minors) 3B 6.7 461
    1984 Marvin Freeman(minors) RHP 6.0 220
    1988 Chris Nabholz(minors) LHP 5.5 127
    2000 Xavier Nady(minors) 3B 3.8 961
    2011 *Kyle Crick(minors) RHP 2.5 108
    2001 *Rene Rivera(minors) C 2.1 506
    2008 Johnny Giavotella(minors) 2B 0.8 360
    2009 *Vic Black(minors) RHP 0.5 57
    2012 *Jesse Winker(minors) RF 0.1 190
    2002 Brent Clevlen(minors) OF -0.1 59
    1981 Tony Ferreira(minors) LHP -0.1 0
    2014 Sean Reid-Foley(minors) RHP -0.4 1
    2003 *Abe Alvarez(minors) LHP -0.4 1
    1976 Reggie Baldwin(minors) C -0.4 52
    1999 *Mike Bynum(minors) LHP -1.5 29
    2010 *Mike Olt(minors) 3B -1.6 135
    2019 Rece Hinds(minors) SS
    2018 Greyson Jenista(minors) 1B
    Year Name Pos WAR G
    2017 Gavin Sheets(minors) 1B
    2016 Alec Hansen(minors) RHP
    2015 Tony Santillan(minors) RHP
    2013 Austin Wilson(minors) RF
    2007 *Michael Burgess(minors) OF
    2005 Matt Green(minors) RHP
    2004 *Michael Rogers(minors) RHP
    1998 Marcus Sents(minors) RHP
    1997 *Dan McKinley(minors) OF
    1996 Taylor Myers(minors) RHP
    1994 Brian Stephenson(minors) RHP
    1992 *Dwaine Bostic(minors) SS
    1991 *Jim Lewis(minors) RHP
    1990 *Mike Hardge(minors) SS
    1989 Mike Moore(minors) OF
    1986 Fritz Polka(minors) C
    1983 Todd Mabe(minors) SS
    1982 Tim Wallace(minors) C
    1979 Mark Higgins(minors) OF
    1978 Anthony McGill(minors) OF
    1977 Jeff White(minors) C
    1974 Roger Coe(minors) LHP
    1972 Gary Walls(minors) SS
    1971 Paul Zobeck(minors) LHP
    1970 Fred Seibly(minors) RHP
    Year Name Pos WAR G
    1969 Jim Officer(minors) LHP
    1968 James Sams(minors) RHP
    1967 Bruce Harkey(minors) RHP
    1966 Patrick Amos(minors) SS
    1965 John Dow(minors) OF
    Our planet is a lonely speck in the great enveloping cosmic dark. In our obscurity, in all this vastness, there is no hint that help will come from elsewhere to save us from ourselves. -- Carl Sagan (Pale Blue Dot)

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  14. #53
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    Re: Rece Hinds, 3B - 2019 2nd round pick, 49th overall

    I am now sad that Fritz Polka never made it to the bigs. He'd have instantly been everyone's favorite player.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

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    Re: Rece Hinds - 2019 2nd round pick, 49th overall

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Sounds like a good pick, but uh, man it seems like every early round player the Reds have taken the last few years has been a big project type, someone you’re gonna have to wait a long time to see what happens. Really isn’t bringing their window any closer to the players they have right now.
    Other than Greene, the opposite is actually true.

    By its very nature, the draft seldom brings immediate help.

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    Re: Rece Hinds, 3B - 2019 2nd round pick, 49th overall

    His pre-draft profile and draft slot is actually really similar to Giancarlo Stanton. Its an exciting skillset to have in the system and a chance to work with. Who knows?

    Yes - we will find 100 guys with a similar profile that didnt amount to much - but it just shows what the talent profile looks like. I agree with Mem who mentioned this sure beats waiting for 100 Ryan Lamarre's to become the next 4th OF.


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    Re: Rece Hinds, 3B - 2019 2nd round pick, 49th overall

    I haven't seen Hinds in the Greeneville box scores lately. Anyone know what's up?
    Everything is perfect, but there is a lot of room for improvement. --- Shunryu Suzuki-roshi

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    Re: Rece Hinds, 3B - 2019 2nd round pick, 49th overall

    Quote Originally Posted by malcontent View Post
    I haven't seen Hinds in the Greeneville box scores lately. Anyone know what's up?
    Looks like, because so many prospects are there, that they gave the highest prospects first crack and played them without pinch-hitters or defensive replacements for the first three games. Then they gave other prospects full turns and sat some who played the first three.

    Just splitting up time the first week to get good looks at everyone....probably before moving 4 or 5 of them to other places fairly quickly.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."


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