Data analysts and prognosticators are producing mixed results in their way-too-early power ratings, but most aren’t particularly favorable for Sacramento. CBS Sports rated the Kings 14th in the NBA and ninth in the Western Conference. ESPN ranked them 20th in the NBA and 11th in the west.
Forecasters at FiveThirtyEight are predicting the Kings will finish last in the Western Conference at 33-49, behind the Memphis Grizzlies, Phoenix Suns and even my son’s middle-school team, although that seems highly unlikely. FiveThirtyEight assigned minutes to players using a depth-chart algorithm that suggests Harrison Barnes will log all of his minutes at power forward and Trevor Ariza, brought in to back up Barnes at small forward, will play more than Marvin Bagley III.
That seems like crazy talk. The Kings will likely start Barnes, Bagley and Dewayne Dedmon on the frontline with De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield in the backcourt. They’ll come in waves off the bench with Ariza, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Nemanja Bjelica, Harry Giles III, Richaun Holmes, Cory Joseph and Yogi Ferrell.
The Kings are deep and talented. On paper, it looks like they’ve improved after winning 39 games to finish ninth in the Western Conference last season, but the question is whether they’ve improved relative to their competition.