Reds' top minor league prospects: Are any of them meeting/exceeding expectations?

[Ren Deagle]

No love for Packy Naughton? 8-5 record over A+ and AA. 71K and 18W. 2.53 ERA

[M2]

Honestly, and I admit this is a pretty big hottake: if you aren’t somewhat alarmed by the performance of the reds best prospects so far this year you are crazy.

I don't think noting that disappointing numbers from top prospects merits some alarm is all that hot a take. If they were crushing it, we'd all be pretty jazzed about that, right?

[madeirawood]

No love for Packy Naughton? 8-5 record over A+ and AA. 71K and 18W. 2.53 ERA

Right now, Packy looks like the best starting pitcher in the Reds minor league system. He is advancing quickly. And he is a lefty!

[Bourgeois Zee]

Right now, Packy looks like the best starting pitcher in the Reds minor league system. He is advancing quickly. And he is a lefty!

Scott Moss looks good too. Yeah, he got hit pretty hard yesterday, but he's apparently found a couple ticks of fastball and upped his K rate. He'll have to figure out the walks-- as they are excessive-- but has a history of very good control.

Perhaps it's because I expected Moss to fall on his face in AA (as that's what most stuff-starved SP tend to do), but he's actually improved everything except a sky-high BB total.

[Shoeless Jeff]

On Intentional Talk the other day they were talking about minor league stats this year and how hard they are to decipher. You have always had variances between leagues (hitter friendly vs. pitcher friendly), but there are a lot of minor leaguers that are having true outlier performances even compared to their leagues. The stats are getting very hard to decipher and the pitching pool has shrunk. This means some batters are facing really bad pitchers and can inflate stats against guys that shouldn't be pitching at the level they are at. The traditional standard for BABIP may be changing because there are a lot of players that have been able to sustain real high numbers for a year plus now. Throw in that they were saying there are many other teams that are having top prospects struggle as well and they were mentioning all the pressure on these kids because of the upfront money they are getting. Put it all together and it is real hard to evaluate talent just based off numbers. The eye test still works!

[Alabama]

The organization can't develop minor leaguers- the team might as well get something for them until they figure out how to support growth in the system.

Clear some room in your private messages

[JFLegal]

the disappointing season continues for the reds' top prospects. was hoping by now some of them would have caught fire. especially disappointed in the seasons from guys like trammell and tyler stephenson. on the pitching front, i did not see santillan falling apart like this. and now vlad guiterrez is likely on the verge of getting released he's been so bad.

oh well, still time for some of these guys to finish the season strong. but the collective seasons from our top minor league prospects have been very disappointing.

[BillDoran]

the disappointing season continues for the reds' top prospects. was hoping by now some of them would have caught fire. especially disappointed in the seasons from guys like trammell and tyler stephenson. on the pitching front, i did not see santillan falling apart like this. and now vlad guiterrez is likely on the verge of getting released he's been so bad.

oh well, still time for some of these guys to finish the season strong. but the collective seasons from our top minor league prospects have been very disappointing.

It hasn't been a blockbuster season, to be sure, but the state of the farm is fine. This year, the farm graduated a sure-fire long-term starter (dare I say, a seven-time all star?) and a nice bench piece in VanMeter.

People are bummed about Trammell, but I contend he was over-gassed after last year's Futures Game. He'll contribute in the next two years.

India is a solid prospect. Loldolo, at this very early stage, looks promising.

Greene's the wild card. He could reappear next year as a top-10 guy, for all anyone knows. He's got the pedigree to do so.

Tyler Stephenson gets next to no love here, but he's a 22-year-old catcher more than holding his own in AA. Tony Santillan has some intriguing stuff and a track record of success, despite the rough-ish year. TJ Friedl is probably a fourth or fifth outfielder, but he continues to show up. Jose Garcia might be the only semi-legitimate SS prospect since Cozart.

There are some intriguing young guys that I wouldn't bet on, but you have to hope one realizes his potential: Tyler Callihan, Michael Siani, Lyon Richardson and Rece Hinds, among others.

Drafting after the first round and development are major problems with the organization. That said, there are guys that will help in the next two years. The guys that will help are heavily skewed toward bats, but you take what you can get.

[M2]

It hasn't been a blockbuster season, to be sure, but the state of the farm is fine.

I have to disagree. This has been like watching a slasher movie. The body count is horrific. Almost across the board the party line is let's hope this kid starts doing something way better than what he's doing. Nothing else we can do because this is what we're stuck with, but it's like a wave of mutilation washed over the entire system. I certainly hope people in the Reds' front office are having conversations about how bad this is.

[RedTeamGo!]

I have to disagree. This has been like watching a slasher movie. The body count is horrific. Almost across the board the party line is let's hope this kid starts doing something way better than what he's doing. Nothing else we can do because this is what we're stuck with, but it's like a wave of mutilation washed over the entire system. I certainly hope people in the Reds' front office are having conversations about how bad this is.

Yep, I feel like viewing it any way other than the above is just delusion.

If the Reds farm was any other team’s farm reds fans would think it was really bad. Thank goodness for Lodolo.

Even the other two supposed bright spots in this year’s draft, Callihan and Hinds, are disappointing. Hinds because of some mystery injury no one seems to want to talk about and Callahan, who is supposed to have an advanced bat, ain’t hitting very well. Obviously VERY early, but it would be nice if we as reds fans could see a young player like that just explode out of the gate, but just never seems to happen for us.

[RedTeamGo!]

It hasn't been a blockbuster season, to be sure, but the state of the farm is fine. This year, the farm graduated a sure-fire long-term starter (dare I say, a seven-time all star?) and a nice bench piece in VanMeter.

People are bummed about Trammell, but I contend he was over-gassed after last year's Futures Game. He'll contribute in the next two years.

India is a solid prospect. Loldolo, at this very early stage, looks promising.

Greene's the wild card. He could reappear next year as a top-10 guy, for all anyone knows. He's got the pedigree to do so.

Tyler Stephenson gets next to no love here, but he's a 22-year-old catcher more than holding his own in AA. Tony Santillan has some intriguing stuff and a track record of success, despite the rough-ish year. TJ Friedl is probably a fourth or fifth outfielder, but he continues to show up. Jose Garcia might be the only semi-legitimate SS prospect since Cozart.

There are some intriguing young guys that I wouldn't bet on, but you have to hope one realizes his potential: Tyler Callihan, Michael Siani, Lyon Richardson and Rece Hinds, among others.

Drafting after the first round and development are major problems with the organization. That said, there are guys that will help in the next two years. The guys that will help are heavily skewed toward bats, but you take what you can get.

I read this post and it sounds like a really bad farm. Nothing exciting.

[NeilHamburger]

It hasn't been a blockbuster season, to be sure, but the state of the farm is fine. This year, the farm graduated a sure-fire long-term starter (dare I say, a seven-time all star?) and a nice bench piece in VanMeter.

People are bummed about Trammell, but I contend he was over-gassed after last year's Futures Game. He'll contribute in the next two years.

India is a solid prospect. Loldolo, at this very early stage, looks promising.

Greene's the wild card. He could reappear next year as a top-10 guy, for all anyone knows. He's got the pedigree to do so.

Tyler Stephenson gets next to no love here, but he's a 22-year-old catcher more than holding his own in AA. Tony Santillan has some intriguing stuff and a track record of success, despite the rough-ish year. TJ Friedl is probably a fourth or fifth outfielder, but he continues to show up. Jose Garcia might be the only semi-legitimate SS prospect since Cozart.

There are some intriguing young guys that I wouldn't bet on, but you have to hope one realizes his potential: Tyler Callihan, Michael Siani, Lyon Richardson and Rece Hinds, among others.

Drafting after the first round and development are major problems with the organization. That said, there are guys that will help in the next two years. The guys that will help are heavily skewed toward bats, but you take what you can get.

Well, the Reds went from a top 10 system to 20th overall according to BA, and with all the high draft picks I would consider that a terrible thing even after accounting for Senzel being moved up.

[BillDoran]

Well, the Reds went from a top 10 system to 20th overall according to BA, and with all the high draft picks I would consider that a terrible thing even after accounting for Senzel being moved up.

I don't think you'll get much argument from anybody on this board that this is a good minor league system. All I'm saying is it isn't as bad as the pessimists on this board make it out to be. You'll always sink in the rankings when you lose a top 10 player. Throw in an injury to our highest-ceilinged prospect, and that's the drop. If Greene returns to form next year, the organizational ranking will jump 5-10 spots. If Lodolo continues to impress, it'll jump further.

That's a lot of "ifs," but it's also the nature of prospect evolution. If we have two top 50 arms to go with Trammell and India, I wouldn't be all that upset.

[JFLegal]

Well, the Reds went from a top 10 system to 20th overall according to BA, and with all the high draft picks I would consider that a terrible thing even after accounting for Senzel being moved up.

6 straight years of drafting in the top 11 (5 straight years of drafting in the top 7) and the reds have the 20th farm system out of 30 teams? that is just incredibly bad drafting and/or player development. probably both. not saying we've struck out on all draft picks during that time -- there have been some very good ones like senzel. but there is no excuse for the reds to be ranked in the bottom third of mlb farm systems after several years of selecting near the top of the draft.

also doesn't help that jeter downs and josiah gray are both having better seasons than any of the reds' current prospects.

edit: actually, i glossed over why this farm system is bad. it's not as much the draft as it is international signings. if there is a team worse at international signings than the reds, i feel really sorry for that fan base. giving $7 million to alfredo rodriguez when every single report on the kid said he couldn't hit worth a lick was the biggest example of malpractice by the reds' front office.

[M2]

I don't think you'll get much argument from anybody on this board that this is a good minor league system. All I'm saying is it isn't as bad as the pessimists on this board make it out to be. You'll always sink in the rankings when you lose a top 10 player. Throw in an injury to our highest-ceilinged prospect, and that's the drop. If Greene returns to form next year, the organizational ranking will jump 5-10 spots. If Lodolo continues to impress, it'll jump further.

That's a lot of "ifs," but it's also the nature of prospect evolution. If we have two top 50 arms to go with Trammell and India, I wouldn't be all that upset.

We had a lot of people prior to this season insisting this was a top farm system, and some of the ratings folks were buying into that. It missed how shallow the pitching is and was predicated on some aggressive projections for the system's top prospects. IMO, we're still playing catch up to how much has gone wrong. It's hard to get a clear picture when we're still in the midst of the season and hoping some kids reverse their fortunes.

On a separate note, Hunter Greene should not pitch next season. Give him at least 18 months recovery.