How Much Has Castillo Actually Improved?

[RedTeamGo!]

No, he walked a lot of folks vs Houston too

He also had three games this year where he had 0.

He is walking too many batters, no one is saying otherwise. If you look at his career it is the one number that stands out this most this year with regard to his entire career as an outlier. Maybe he will move forward leading the league in walks every year. I simply doubt it.

[redsrule2500]

Luis Castillo's early season success was one of the major bright spots for the Reds so far in 2019. But looking at his overall numbers, outside of ERA, it seems he actually has been pitching around the same as he has been his whole career.

2019

3.70 FIP
3.75 xFIP
2.22 K/BB
0.79 HR/9

Career

4.01 FIP
3.63 xFIP
2.86 K/BB
1.21 HR/9

Basically his K/BB rate is actually worse than his career, thanks to too many BB's, while his HR/9 rate is better, which is due to getting more GB and fewer FB.

His much lower ERA seems to be due to his very low BABIP, .243, but he always has had a low BABIP, with a career .264.

Of course, he had a terrible game yesterday, so maybe that has skewed the numbers a bit, but all games count. But it looks like Castillo is due for a correction at some point this season, and may not be the true Ace we were hoping he would be at the start of this season.

HR/9 is the only really impressive statistic, unfortunately. And it's likely within the margin of error.

[RedTeamGo!]

HR/9 is the only really impressive statistic, unfortunately. And it's likely within the margin of error.

Call me crazy but 10.7 k/9 is pretty impressive

[Sea Ray]

He also had three games this year where he had 0.

He is walking too many batters, no one is saying otherwise. If you look at his career it is the one number that stands out this most this year with regard to his entire career as an outlier. Maybe he will move forward leading the league in walks every year. I simply doubt it.

I think the issue is pretty simple. After his quick start, scouting noticed that a lot of his pitches were outside the strike zone. Players are being coached to be patient with him. This has led to more walks. He now needs to adjust. He needs to throw that changeup so that it clips a corner of the plate

[Patrick Bateman]

For the record, he's never had this high a walk rate before, but his stuff seems like its been improving too.

I think there's a real chance that we are seeing an adjustment period while he continues learning the right pitch mix, and adjusting to his stuff. I don't see a guy that is trying to bit corners, and be too fancy, I see a guy who is just uncontrollably missing more than he has in the past.

I have some hope there is another adjustment coming for Castillo... he certainly has "elite" stuff, but hasn't commanded is consistently enough to be a regular elite pitcher.

[WrongVerb]

Imagine trying to hit this: https://twitter.com/AugustineMLB/sta...244988928?s=19

[MikeS21]

Imagine trying to hit this: https://twitter.com/AugustineMLB/sta...244988928?s=19

Look at the grip on that change. Anyone know where we could find a Mario Soto grip on a change to compare the two?

[Ron Madden]

MLB network discusses Luis Castillo..

https://700wlw.iheart.com/featured/l...luis-castillo/

[WrongVerb]

Jeff Wallner
@JeffWallner

Castillo had 26 swinging strikes, 18 on the changeup. He got 11 of his 13 Ks on changeups, the most Ks any MLB pitcher has gotten on changeups in a single game in the past six seasons. #Reds
7:45pm · 5 Aug 2019

[RedTeamGo!]

But is he actually improving?

[M2]

One thing to consider with Castillo is maybe he's like Johnny Cueto, who consistently had his ERA beat his FIP by a solid margin (0.47 for his career). Homer Bailey was the opposite. Castillo certainly has been hard to hit over nearly 389 IP in the bigs. He's looked like a regression candidate all season long, but that regression point might be an ERA a half-run better than his FIP.

[757690]

But is he actually improving?

What people are missing is that he was really good last year and the year before, so he really isn’t improving their much this season. He suffered some bad luck last season, and some good luck this season, so it looks like he’s improving more than he really is.

Look at tonight’s game. He struck out 13, but gave up two HR’s. That gave him a 3.62 FIP for the game. That’s higher than his career FIP of 3.47. He just as easily could have give up 4 or 5 runs, if the timing of those HR were different.

Again, saying he’s hasn’t improved that much is more a reflection of how good he was previously, than about how good he is this season.

[Larry Schuler]

He is as bad as he was last year with no improvement which is huge compliment, as he was not very bad at all!

[GAC]

Watched that game last night. Solid performance. Has he improved?

https://www.mlb.com/reds/news/luis-c...igh-13-batters

“I felt confident going out there,” Castillo said, via a translator. “I was prepared 100% for that game.”

Castillo finished the game with a career-high 119 pitches. He came back out for the seventh despite having 101 pitches through six innings, then he struck out three straight batters and walked off the field to a loud ovation.

“He was pushed, but he was strong and he wanted the ball,” said Reds acting manager Freddie Benavides. “He didn't want to come out of the game. For him to get into that elite group, you have to do that. He was the man tonight.”

This is what this team needs. The kid's got the fire in his belly. He wants to be the best ... 11-4 2.63 ERA 1.10 Whip... If nothing else, he's maturing (only 26).

[fondfoat]

What people are missing is that he was really good last year and the year before, so he really isn’t improving their much this season. He suffered some bad luck last season, and some good luck this season, so it looks like he’s improving more than he really is.

Look at tonight’s game. He struck out 13, but gave up two HR’s. That gave him a 3.62 FIP for the game. That’s higher than his career FIP of 3.47. He just as easily could have give up 4 or 5 runs, if the timing of those HR were different.

Again, saying he’s hasn’t improved that much is more a reflection of how good he was previously, than about how good he is this season.

But the timing wasn't different. He would have been throwing pitches at different batters. We have no way of knowing what the results would have been. Castillo has been a front line pitcher this season. The Reds need him to keep performing.