How Much Has Castillo Actually Improved?

[Sea Ray]

Exactly. And the thing about the walks is that this season is completely out of whack with the rest of his career. I think folks are going overboard with their analysis of him in this thread because of his last start in Milwaukee.

No, he walked a lot of folks vs Houston too

[Tom Servo]

No, he walked a lot of folks vs Houston too

Yet there was no thread asking if Castillo has really improved until this last start against Milwaukee.

[757690]

Yet there was no thread asking if Castillo has really improved until this last start against Milwaukee.

Maybe there should have been.

If you look at his game logs, he hasn’t had a good FIP game since May 16th against the Cubs. It all started with his first start in Milwaukee, but he’s been struggling somewhat in every game since then.

https://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.asp...=&gde=&season=

[DocRed]

Yet another post where the entire RZ board jumps on anyone that even remotely expresses concerns about the future trends of a player. His 3.71 FIP and walk rate are real statistics and raise some red flags for me about the sustainability of a 2.50 ERA for the entire season. No one is saying Castillo sucks or that he isn't our best starting pitcher.

[Tom Servo]

Maybe there should have been.

If you look at his game logs, he hasn’t had a good FIP game since May 16th against the Cubs. It all started with his first start in Milwaukee, but he’s been struggling somewhat in every game since then.

https://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.asp...=&gde=&season=

Castillo’s walk rate will need to come down, I don’t think anybody disputes that. But even in those “bad FIP” starts, and even including the two Milwaukee meltdowns, he’s got a 3.94 ERA in that time span. The numbers in between the Milwaukee starts, besides the walk total, are even better. That’s on the heels of his tremendous first 10 starts where he had a 1.90 ERA.

“He needs to walk less guys” is pretty much the only analysis needed here. And like with Votto and hitting, I would not bet against Castillo getting there.

[RedTeamGo!]

Yet another post where the entire RZ board jumps on anyone that even remotely expresses concerns about the future trends of a player. His 3.71 FIP and walk rate are real statistics and raise some red flags for me about the sustainability of a 2.50 ERA for the entire season. No one is saying Castillo sucks or that he isn't our best starting pitcher.

This is literally not happening in this thread. One poster “jumped” on him.

[757690]

Castillo’s walk rate will need to come down, I don’t think anybody disputes that. But even in those “bad FIP” starts, and even including the two Milwaukee meltdowns, he’s got a 3.94 ERA in that time span. The numbers in between the Milwaukee starts, besides the walk total, are even better. That’s on the heels of his tremendous first 10 starts where he had a 1.90 ERA.

“He needs to walk less guys” is pretty much the only analysis needed here. And like with Votto and hitting, I would not bet against Castillo getting there.

The point of looking at his peripherals is to go beyond his ERA. And his ERA during this period is not “ace” material.

I can understand betting in Votto. He has a long career of being elite.

This is the first year Castillo has appeared to be elite, and looking deeper, he really hasn’t been. And it’s always been his command and control.

If you are expecting his walks to go back to his career numbers, then you should also be expecting his K’s and HR’s to do the same. There is a good likely hood his improvement in K’s and HR is connected to his decline in BB. He’s been effectively wild.

I do think he definitely can figure it out, he has the talent and has shown the ability to improve. Let’s hope he does.

[jojo]

I think going forward, Castillo is most likely to experience a noticeable correction back toward the crowd.

[Tom Servo]

The point of looking at his peripherals is to go beyond his ERA. And his ERA during this period is not “ace” material.

I can understand betting in Votto. He has a long career of being elite.

This is the first year Castillo has appeared to be elite, and looking deeper, he really hasn’t been. And it’s always been his command and control.

If you are expecting his walks to go back to his career numbers, then you should also be expecting his K’s and HR’s to do the same. There is a good likely hood his improvement in K’s and HR is connected to his decline in BB. He’s been effectively wild.

I do think he definitely can figure it out, he has the talent and has shown the ability to improve. Let’s hope he does.

I don't know that I expect him to go back to a 2.6 BB/9 like last season, but I also don't think it will stay near 5.0. If you wanna talk career numbers for such a young player, Castillo's 1.5 HR/9 last year could very well be the outlier. In his 2017 + 2019 stats, which totals to more combined innings than he threw in 2018, it's at 0.9.

I hate the whole "ace" argument. I hate the whole "elite" debate, which to me is just a joke (I even worked it into my Twitter username until I got sent to Twitter jail). Endless amounts of bandwidth for years was wasted arguing that point about Johnny Cueto. I know you're into that kind of thing, but I'm not.

[Kc61]

The point of looking at his peripherals is to go beyond his ERA. And his ERA during this period is not “ace” material.

I can understand betting in Votto. He has a long career of being elite.

This is the first year Castillo has appeared to be elite, and looking deeper, he really hasn’t been. And it’s always been his command and control.

If you are expecting his walks to go back to his career numbers, then you should also be expecting his K’s and HR’s to do the same. There is a good likely hood his improvement in K’s and HR is connected to his decline in BB. He’s been effectively wild.

I do think he definitely can figure it out, he has the talent and has shown the ability to improve. Let’s hope he does.

I don’t see that Castillo needs to figure anything out. He’s been a dominant pitcher this season. All pitchers make adjustments during the season, but Luis has it “figured out” rather well.

He frequently gets hitters out on pitches out of the zone. So when they are more patient, they can draw walks. But the end result is that he’s allowed only 58 hits in 91 innings. That’s dominant, even with some walks.

[757690]

I don't know that I expect him to go back to a 2.6 BB/9 like last season, but I also don't think it will stay near 5.0. If you wanna talk career numbers for such a young player, Castillo's 1.5 HR/9 last year could very well be the outlier. In his 2017 + 2019 stats, which totals to more combined innings than he threw in 2018, it's at 0.9.

I hate the whole "ace" argument. I hate the whole "elite" debate, which to me is just a joke (I even worked it into my Twitter username until I got sent to Twitter jail). Endless amounts of bandwidth for years was wasted arguing that point about Johnny Cueto. I know you're into that kind of thing, but I'm not.

Then forget the terms and focus on the production.

If Castillo is a 3.50 ERA or a 2.50 ERA guy moving forward, that makes a big difference for the Reds in terms of success this season, and in terms of their plans moving forward after this season.

I don’t understand the argument that it doesn’t matter how good he is moving forward.

[RedTeamGo!]

I agree about the term “ace,” I feel like if you ask 10 different people to define what an ace is you will get 10 different answers.

[Tom Servo]

I don’t understand the argument that it doesn’t matter how good he is moving forward.

Because it mostly doesn't? Obviously, lower ERA = better pitcher. But what does the 3.50 vs. 2.50 argument really mean in terms of planning? Do you not consider buying out Castillo's arb years because his ERA is 3.50? Does having 2.50 ERA Castillo preclude the Reds from going out and trading for or signing a pitcher around the same caliber? It just seems to boil down to the silly "ace" argument.

[RedsBrick]

Castillo's stuff is filthy.

Personally I think he's still figuring out how to be a pitcher, in just his 2nd full season. I think he's still learning the nuances of throwing the change...the when, where and how of it all.

His Quality Starts are up from 35% in 2018 to 56% so far this season.

I do know this...he's fun to watch.

[757690]

Because it mostly doesn't? Obviously, lower ERA = better pitcher. But what does the 3.50 vs. 2.50 argument really mean in terms of planning? Do you not consider buying out Castillo's arb years because his ERA is 3.50? Does having 2.50 ERA Castillo preclude the Reds from going out and trading for or signing a pitcher around the same caliber? It just seems to boil down to the silly "ace" argument.

Who cares if Suarez puts up 3 wins a season going forward or 4 wins a season?

Every team calculates in great detail what they expect from every player and adjust their roster based on these calculations. And these calculations need to be even more accurate for a mid market team, who has less room for error.

Claiming that they don’t care how exactly good each player is what is silly.