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Thread: State of the Rebuild #1,762 (?)

  1. #31
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    Re: State of the Rebuild #1,762 (?)

    Quote Originally Posted by BernieCarbo View Post
    I don’t know what the state of the rebuild is, but if this rebuild was a state, it would be Alabama.
    Meh, I think Ohio would work just fine. Especially Dayton.
    Funny you bring that up seeing as how the guy your handle is named for loves it and lives down here. Try better next time hoss


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  3. #32
    Member BernieCarbo's Avatar
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    Re: State of the Rebuild #1,762 (?)

    Quote Originally Posted by Alabama View Post
    Meh, I think Ohio would work just fine. Especially Dayton.
    Funny you bring that up seeing as how the guy your handle is named for loves it and lives down here. Try better next time hoss
    I love the people of Alabama, but the state government is dysfunctional and crazy. If they were in charge of a rebuild, they would finish last six straight years too.

  4. #33
    Backup First Baseman OGB's Avatar
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    Re: State of the Rebuild #1,762 (?)

    Quote Originally Posted by Alabama View Post
    Meh, I think Ohio would work just fine. Especially Dayton.
    Funny you bring that up seeing as how the guy your handle is named for loves it and lives down here. Try better next time hoss
    Education - 50th
    Poverty rate - 48th
    Obesity - 45th
    Life expectancy - 48th

    Unless we're including college football championships and this is very weirdly weighted toward gridiron prowess, I'd say Alabama is pretty good example if we're talking general incompetence.
    (Referring to Jack Hannahan signing with a Korean team)
    Since there are no teams on the moon, I guess South Korea's far enough from Cincinnati to satisfy me.
    -RichRed

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  6. #34
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    Re: State of the Rebuild #1,762 (?)

    The state of this Reds team will be known after next off-season. How will they use the considerable payflex after the free agent departures? This season has too many short-stay players to reach any long-term conclusions.

    As for the minor leaguers, most of them are works in progress, hard to draw firm conclusions. But if we look at 2020 (as I just did) as the barometer, there don’t seem to be many guys ready to help then.
    Last edited by Kc61; 06-28-2019 at 05:19 PM.

  7. #35
    Member Old school 1983's Avatar
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    Re: State of the Rebuild #1,762 (?)

    Quote Originally Posted by Alabama View Post
    Meh, I think Ohio would work just fine. Especially Dayton.
    Funny you bring that up seeing as how the guy your handle is named for loves it and lives down here. Try better next time hoss
    Apparently you’ve never been to Toledo or Youngstown.

  8. #36
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    Re: State of the Rebuild #1,762 (?)

    Quote Originally Posted by OGB View Post
    Education - 50th
    Poverty rate - 48th
    Obesity - 45th
    Life expectancy - 48th

    Unless we're including college football championships and this is very weirdly weighted toward gridiron prowess, I'd say Alabama is pretty good example if we're talking general incompetence.
    That’s fine. You could just say the Reds are the Alabama of the MLB, but they’re actually Mississippi in the last half decade. Bottom line is it’s a stupid comparison.

  9. #37
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    Re: State of the Rebuild #1,762 (?)

    Quote Originally Posted by Alabama View Post
    That’s fine. You could just say the Reds are the Alabama of the MLB, but they’re actually Mississippi in the last half decade. Bottom line is it’s a stupid comparison.
    It was kind of funny.

    But this team struggles is not.

    I also find it funnt that Williams seems to be bullitproof for his involvement is this crapshow that has been the Reds for the last 5 years.

  10. #38
    Goober GAC's Avatar
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    Re: State of the Rebuild #1,762 (?)

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    Farm system rankings typically weigh heavily on premium prospects, they don't really value farm depth.
    And when it comes to these "rankings" I think you're right.... a few highly-regarded prospects seems to carry these system as far as ranking goes. IMO, they're not really measuring overall depth of the system. But is that really even possible? Where, if any, is the starting/stopping point when evaluating an organization's farm system/prospects? I would think that any serious "examination" of a prospect wouldn't begin till they've advanced to high A (Dayton) and forward.
    "In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)

  11. #39
    Goober GAC's Avatar
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    Re: State of the Rebuild #1,762 (?)

    Quote Originally Posted by Old school 1983 View Post
    Apparently you’ve never been to Toledo or Youngstown.


    And he sung it in Toledo! LOL
    "In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)

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  13. #40
    Goober GAC's Avatar
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    Re: State of the Rebuild #1,762 (?)

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    The state of this Reds team will be known after next off-season. How will they use the considerable payflex after the free agent departures? This season has too many short-stay players to reach any long-term conclusions.
    I agree. IMO, looking back at that "blockbuster" off-season deal with LA and all it involved, I think it gave the impression to a lot of fans that "Wow! Looks like we're going to make a serious run for it in '19!" Now I'm not saying that isn't a possible objective in '19; but IMO, not the overall objective. They have some very critical decisions to be made this off-season involving key positions .... Pitching, C, OF, 2B, SS. When names are thrown out like Roarke, Wood, Puig, Gennett, Iglesias, and several others, who are FA's at seasons end, then those are some pretty heavy decisions to be made. Not easy.

    Yeah. This next off-season will be the most telling as to whether this FO is serious about maintaining the positive direction, and not rebuilding but building on what they have.

    As for the minor leaguers, most of them are works in progress, hard to draw firm conclusions. But if we look at 2020 (as I just did) as the barometer, there don’t seem to be many guys ready to help then.
    Not too much is there. The word "rebuild" is a deceptive term IMO. Some get the impression it heavily involves the farm system providing you with that cheap, under-your-control, talent. And it does to a certain degree. But overall, IMO, it's a incomplete source. An organization has to afford itself all the avenues available to building your team if they want to succeed (Suarez is one example). Teams are always "feasting" on other's farm systems, working deals, to meet specific needs.

    You don't really see dynasties in MLB anymore. Even the teams that are consistently in the post-season, have somewhat of a foundation, are stil constantly shuffling players, replacing those losses, shoring up, in order to stay competitive.

    What's the Red's foundation at this stage? Right now they're are too many holes to fill and decisions to be made. Their "foundation", at this stage IMO, is somewhat shaky in the mind of the fans because of the uncertainty.

    But since this rebuild was initiated - and as far as our farm system is concerned - what are the names of the all the players currently contributing to this team? Position - Winker, Senzel . Pitching? Mahle. Castillo was a nice grab, but he was 24 when the Reds acquired him, and spent 4 years in the SF/Miami farm systems. Other then Cueto and Bailey, I'm very disappointed in their efforts to develop pitching.
    Last edited by GAC; 06-29-2019 at 06:21 AM.
    "In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)

  14. #41
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    Re: State of the Rebuild #1,762 (?)

    I don’t like to draw conclusion about a minor league system too easily. I’m not one to dwell on interim minor league results. To me, Taylor Trammel is still an excellent prospect even if he’s having some troubles at this particular stage.

    But it can be said that going into 2020 Reds don’t have obvious candidates to make an impact at the big league level. That’s an issue. When drafted/signed, one could have posited, for example, Trammel, A. Rodriguez, T. Stephenson, Gutierrez, Santillan, all being ready to help by OD 2020. Instead, the Reds will have to spend on veterans to fill some or all of those spots.

    Longer term, Reds have a lot of good prospects, I think you wait and see, sometimes guys come through unexpectedly or just require a bit more time.

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  16. #42
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    Re: State of the Rebuild #1,762 (?)

    Quote Originally Posted by Kinsm View Post
    Farm system rankings typically weigh heavily on premium prospects, they don't really value farm depth. If you have 4 top 100 prospects you're going to be considered as having a great farm even if 5-30 look like sub replacement level players. Me personally, I'd rather have 15+ guys who look like major leaguers, though perhaps aren't top 100 prospects - the odds that more than 4 will work out is greater.
    I feel the opposite. I think the rankings give too much credit for guys who are ranked as potential major leaguers outside the top 10. The Reds have a lot of those fungible 25th man types, but because they are technically future big leaguers as opposed to organization guys, the Reds get more love than they should. In reality those 25th men types are easily available for cheap and having a lot of those really adds no value whatsoever.

    The impact thing is true as well, but I think the people doing the ranking thing give too much weight to certain tools (like Speed and throwing arm) that are secondary without the other tools to go with them. A guy who can run and throw but can't hit might be useful in situations, but isn't a top prospect IMO. Still, guys with 70 or better tools in those areas are ranked more highly than they should be simply because of those rankings. Billy Hamilton was a top 50 prospect because he could run and throw. It was pretty clear he wouldn't hit, but the world was clamoring for him anyway. He's actually an example that worked out better than most of those types IMO.

    I also think Fantasy Baseball impacts how the ranking are compiled. Guys who can steal bases are over-valued and over-ranked simply because they have fantasy value. The rankings are for the fans and fantasy players are the largest consumer group. Those rankings absolutely are skewed to guys who might help a fantasy team more than a real baseball team.
    Last edited by mth123; 06-29-2019 at 02:00 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  18. #43
    Moderator Kinsm's Avatar
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    Re: State of the Rebuild #1,762 (?)

    I don't see a lot of 25th guys in this system. I see a couple handfuls of guys who will likely be +WAR players and then a ton of org filler who would be sub replacement if they ever make a 25 man roster.

  19. #44
    Member mth123's Avatar
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    Re: State of the Rebuild #1,762 (?)

    .. Stuart Fairchild, Mike Siani, Phillip Ervin, Aristedes Aquino, Alex Balndino, Josh VanMeter, TJ Friedl, Alfredo Rodriguez, Jose Siri, former prospects Jeter Downs and Shed Long.

    ... on the pitching side Cody Reed, Robert Stephenson, Jackson Stephens, Sal Romano, Vlad, Jimmy Herget, Scott Moss ...

    Those are a bunch of end of the bench or last guy on the staff guys that the Reds get credit for because they provide depth. Bench players and bullpen filler can be had for cheap.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

  20. #45
    Moderator Kinsm's Avatar
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    Re: State of the Rebuild #1,762 (?)

    A little Update for Reds Country...

    State of the Rebuild?

    -->May 14th, 2015: the Reds had a record of 18 W - 17 L on the season, that date was the last time they were above .500 in 2015 - they finished with a .395 W% - last in their division (29th out of 30)

    -->April 20th, 2016: the Reds had a record of 8 W - 7 L on the season, that date was the last time they were above .500 in 2016 - they finished with a .420 W% - last in their division (t27th out of 30)

    -->May 15th, 2017: the Reds had a record of 19 W - 18 L on the season, that date was the last time they were above .500 in 2017 - they finished with a .420 W% - last in their division (26th out of 30)

    -->2018: the Reds had a record of 0 W - 0 L on the season, the Reds were never above .500 going wire to wire as losers - they finished with a .414 W% - last in their division (t23rd out of 30)

    -->March 30th, 2019: the Reds had a record of 1 W - 0 L on the season, that date was the last time they were above .500 in 2019 - they finished with a .463 W% - second to last in their division (19th out of 30)

    -->^July 24th, 2020: the Reds had a record of 1 W - 0 L on the season, that date was the last time they were above .500 in 2020 - currently have a .417 W% - currently second to last in their division (t22nd out of 30)

    ^7/24 was the delayed opening day game for the Reds in 2020.

    Not good!

    ***The 2020 season is on pace to be the 18th losing Reds season in 23 years since MLB expanded too it's current 30 team format***

    A lot of money locked up in an aging Votto, Moose, Miley and Shogo. Could lose 40% of their rotation to free agency this winter. Senzel can't seem to stay healthy. Not a lot of depth in the upper minors, if Garcia and Stephenson fumble it could get even uglier.

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