Are we talking about the Homer Bailey currently sporting a 4.76 ERA for the season? That's better than he previous four seasons with Cincinnati, but I'm not exactly shedding any tears over not having that.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
cumberlandreds (09-16-2019),REDREAD (09-17-2019),RiverRat13 (09-16-2019),westofyou (09-16-2019)
This is a calculated effort by him to make me trust him enough to pick him up for a spot start in the fantasy baseball FINALS and blow it.
This is nothing less than a personal attack on me. I can see it coming.
Chip R (09-16-2019)
yep that guy that seems to still be recovering, gaining strength and control and learning how to pitch with what he has and not what he had. I'm not lamenting the loss either, but in a season where we get to say YAY they won 70!, any story can be interesting and worth discussing. Not every thread has to be about what the Reds can do to win 82+ games.
Homer's had an interesting year, and in fact came off a year that was oddly fascinating. His year stunk, but a lot of what he was doing didn't match the results. From 2015-2017 he combined for negative 1.4 WAR and last year it was lower than all three years combined. That's damn hard to do and find a job the next year. And yet one team signed him and another team traded for him. So clearly they saw something too right?
From 2011 through 2013 the BA on Bailey's 4 seamer was declining, .290, .263, .230. Then he got hurt. 2014-2018: .306, .364, .405, .347, .346.
This year it's at .277. He's using his splitter more than he ever has and has a .181 BA against it. His slider is a disaster. I don't think has has a feel for his once vaunted 12-6 curve either. The everage velo on his 4 seamer is 93.3, and he's topped out at 97.6. After looking at fangraphs I see that he's actually maintained his average velocity fairly well, and that in 2013, for whatever reason he was throwing harder than he had before or since, averaging 95.2 on his FB, when he was at 93 before and after that year. Might have contributed to his injury.
Someone is going to sign him next year. Might even be Oakland.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
You know who uses splitters these days?
Guys who have nothing to lose, the Reds themselves don't allow young pitchers to throw it
From 2011
It likely puts more stress on the arm, something Homer should be aware of, if he does get signed buyer beware“There’s a fairly strong feeling that we’re not going to teach anybody the split-finger at the early stage,” the Reds pitching coach Bryan Price said. “It’s more for a guy that’s less-defined at the higher levels that hasn’t had as much success and we think that maybe has some intangibles to pitch in the big leagues and it’s a good addition pitch to maybe get them over the hump to be a big league pitcher. But in early development, no.”
REDREAD (09-17-2019)
I feel like on more than a couple occasions this year we’ve had these “Homer is now good” discussions and he quickly puts up a stinker to show who he really is.
(I’m guessing no one literallly said he is “good” but the implication is there)
Crumbley (09-17-2019),M2 (09-16-2019),Revering4Blue (09-16-2019)
I think It's more confirmation bias on both sides. I think there is a contingent that seems to hate the guy, another that wishes him well in his future endeavors as long as it's not with the Reds. I think there is a group that may think he's finally getting back to what he was, or maybe hoping is the better term.
I mean Adam Dunn wasn't this polarizing.
As to the splitter and the stress it may take to throw it. I tend to think the curve is a high stress pitch. I think pitchers with a lot of spin are putting incredible amounts of stress on their arms. I think Sonny Gray is a perfect example of this. Take a look at how his pitches moved in his start in Colorado. Nobody gets movement like that there. You need a ton of spin for the ball to act like that in that thin atmosphere. It may be that it takes years before throwing the split is something your body can handle. Considering all the rehab Bailey has gone through, perhaps he's strengthened that area sufficiently to be able to handle it better. Or he could pop a ligament tomorrow.
His last 9 starts after his 2 inning clunker vs Houston July 22, he's got a 3.59 ERA. He's got a 7.9 K/9, 1.10 WHIP and has walked 11 batters in those 9 starts. He's faced some really good teams too, Houston again, the Yankees twice, the Cubs, Brewers. Not every game was great, but it's like some are just waiting for him to fail, like cheetahs in the bush looking for an antelope to trip.
It's really ok to not hate the guy.
Last edited by TRF; 09-16-2019 at 02:39 PM.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
Chip R (09-16-2019)
I certainly don’t hate the guy as I defend him when the anti-towel-snapping lobby shows up.
I also think he was a real good pitcher during his couple year prime. It’s a shame injuries got him - but my opinion now is that he is now toast. 5 ERA guy that might (and did this year) be able to eat innings for a bottom feeding team.
Chip R (09-16-2019)
Curve is deployed with a different motion than the split finger, the split finger uses the fastball motion and offers less resistance to the arm action, hence why it has been tossed aside by most and replaced with the circle change or change up. The curve offers resistance but demands a fine touch, it's still outside the FB and Slider the most accomplished pitch in the game today.
As for Home hating, I've loathed the guy since he paid to go to Africa to kill a lion, what an idiot.
ok that's a legit reason. To which I say, Texas. Trophy hunting is a part of the culture all over this state. I don't like it, I try to avoid it, but I'll be long gone before it even starts to change.
- - - Updated - - -
He's the #3 SP for the team leading the AL Wild Card race.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
That takes some serious gymnastics to make that claim.
Fiers. Roark. Anderson. Luzardo. (Currently in the pen) Manaea. Bassit. Bailey.
So if the playoffs started today the A’s would slot Bailey in as their #3? Not even counting suspended Montas - but I don’t use injuries or suspensions to shift guys up a slot in their “rank”.
https://www.mlb.com/athletics/news/a...er-predictions
I swear to Homer Bailey’s towel I try to be reasonable but there’s no universe where he is the Athletics #3 starter.
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