Baseball America Top 30 Reds prospects updated

[Tom Servo]

The Astros got Springer, Correa, and Bergman with their first round picks. The Cubs got Baez, and Bryant, and with their first round picks. MVP caliber players. Maybe Senzel becomes that, but no one else on the Reds list is close.

Messed up that the Reds didn't draft Kris Bryant when they had the chance.

[JCM11]

I really like Lodolo and Siani. Lodolo has a 21/0 k/BB ratio after 11 innings. Siani just turned 20 a few days ago, and has done well since a terrible April.

[WrongVerb]

I really like Lodolo and Siani. Lodolo has a 21/0 k/BB ratio after 11 innings. Siani just turned 20 a few days ago, and has done well since a terrible April.

Jose Israel Garcia (the notorious JIC?) has also improved at every level he's been at. That's promising.

[757690]

To be fair Williams hasn't been any better

Williams did trade for Castillo, so he’s had some successes too.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Jose Israel Garcia (the notorious JIC?) has also improved at every level he's been at. That's promising.

He's 21, looks like a legitimate SS, and has a 114 wRC+ in Advanced A.

Narratively, he's increased his doubles and HR pop while playing in a notorious pitcher's league. In short, there might be quite a bit more power still to show.

The near doubling of his BB rate speaks to his development as well.

He's still got a ways to go, but I like Garcia's emergence so far.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Messed up that the Reds didn't draft Kris Bryant when they had the chance.

And Spinger. (In 2011, the Reds drafted Stephenson 27th, while the Astros drafted Springer 11th.)

And Correa. (Drafted first overall in 2012.)

And Baez. (9th in that same 2011 draft.)

In short, every player mentioned was drafted before the Reds could have even gotten to them.

This isn't just backchair "fandom"; it's fantasy-land. Williams would have to be more DM and less GM for any of this to be on him.

[757690]

And Spinger. (In 2011, the Reds drafted Stephenson 27th, while the Astros drafted Springer 11th.)

And Correa. (Drafted first overall in 2012.)

And Baez. (9th in that same 2011 draft.)

In short, every player mentioned was drafted before the Reds could have even gotten to them.

This isn't just backchair "fandom"; it's fantasy-land. Williams would have to be more DM and less GM for any of this to be on him.

What?

No one is saying the Reds should have drafted any of those guys specifically. That’s silly.

The Reds followed the Astro/Cubs plan of tanking in order to get higher draft picks. It worked for the Astros and Cubs. It doesn’t seem to be working for the Reds. The guys they got with the picks they got due to the Reds tanking, have underwhelmed to be polite.

The Reds put their fans through four years of misery, using the excuse that it would result in a revamped farm system. That seems to have not been as successful as suggested.

[Tom Servo]

The guys they got with the picks they got due to the Reds tanking, have underwhelmed to be polite.

Yes, we really gotta cut bait on this Nick Lodolo clown already.

[Rolando]

Williams did trade for Castillo, so he’s had some successes too.

This is true

[WrongVerb]

Yes, we really gotta cut bait on this Nick Lodolo clown already.

First round pick and still in Billings. Bust.

But seriously, where the Reds failed in the draft was in not losing hard enough during this down period. They should have been picking first or second 2015-2019.

[757690]

Yes, we really gotta cut bait on this Nick Lodolo clown already.

Too early to conclude anything about Lodolo, but he doesn’t project to be an MVP/Cy Young level player.

But the point is about the class of first rounders as a whole. And it might not be the Reds fault, but it points to why tanking is a lousy strategy. Too much risk and luck involved in the draft.

[Bourgeois Zee]

What?

No one is saying the Reds should have drafted any of those guys specifically. That’s silly.

The Reds followed the Astro/Cubs plan of tanking in order to get higher draft picks. It worked for the Astros and Cubs. It doesn’t seem to be working for the Reds. The guys they got with the picks they got due to the Reds tanking, have underwhelmed to be polite.

The Reds put their fans through four years of misery, using the excuse that it would result in a revamped farm system. That seems to have not been as successful as suggested.

1. Senzel is an unmitigated success as a prospect similar to Correa and Bryant. He was a result of the tanking.

2. The first pick of the Reds' rebuild would probably be Tyler Stephenson, the 8th pick of the 2015 draft. He's in AA. You may want to wait a bit before deciding he, India (2018), Greene (2017), Lodolo (2019) and company are complete, abject failures as compared to Houston's choices. Or Chicago's.

3. Houston and Chicago missed on a bunch of guys too.

Remember Brady Aiken? Mark Appel? Two number one overall guys who really do look like busts at this point. Delino DeShields, Jr., isn't looking too good either. All three were top 10 guys similar to the Reds' choices.

As for Chicago, both Schwarber and Almora are looking more like serviceable players rather than the difference-makers they should have been. (Assuming they're being held to the same standard of excellence you're expecting from Cincinnati.) Both were top five selections, IIRC. Ian Happ is currently struggling in AAA.

[Bourgeois Zee]

But seriously, where the Reds failed in the draft was in not losing hard enough during this down period. They should have been picking first or second 2015-2019.

Cincinnati's biggest issues two-fold:

1. Lower level first rounders just haven't worked out since Mike Leake.

Travieso and Howard are panned as picks, but dealing Grandal before he emerged as an All-Star catcher killed them nearly as much. (Especially since Mesoraco couldn't stay healthy.) Ervin and Stephenson were both extremely slow developing, so that retarded progress as well. Tyler Stephenson was a HS pick and has taken a long time, partially due to injuries, as well.

2. 2nd rounders (and other relatively high picks) haven't picked up the slack.

Typically, to have a successful team, you need to get lucky in development, coaching, ownership, or draft talent.

The Reds have, since 2009, been squarely none of the above since the BRM.

Billy Hamilton was the last 2nd round draftee to have a positive WAR. Aaron Boone was the last 3rd round regular. Ben Lively and Sam LeCure provided positive value as middle relief arms in the 4th round. Jason LaRue was the last 5th rounder. That's a lot of draft picks with negligible value. It doesn't just go back to 2010. Or 2000. Or even 1990.

[757690]

Cincinnati's biggest issues two-fold:

1. Lower level first rounders just haven't worked out since Mike Leake.

Travieso and Howard are panned as picks, but dealing Grandal before he emerged as an All-Star catcher killed them nearly as much. (Especially since Mesoraco couldn't stay healthy.) Ervin and Stephenson were both extremely slow developing, so that retarded progress as well. Tyler Stephenson was a HS pick and has taken a long time, partially due to injuries, as well.

2. 2nd rounders (and other relatively high picks) haven't picked up the slack.

Typically, to have a successful team, you need to get lucky in development, coaching, ownership, or draft talent.

The Reds have, since 2009, been squarely none of the above since the BRM.

Billy Hamilton was the last 2nd round draftee to have a positive WAR. Aaron Boone was the last 3rd round regular. Ben Lively and Sam LeCure provided positive value as middle relief arms in the 4th round. Jason LaRue was the last 5th rounder. That's a lot of draft picks with negligible value. It doesn't just go back to 2010. Or 2000. Or even 1990.

Again, I don’t see any Reds prospects as a game changer, MVP candidate, franchise player, which is the goal of tanking. The Astros and Cubs got that with their draft picks from tanking. Maybe Senzel turns into that, but he’s looking more like a solid everyday player, and not real difference maker.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Again, I don’t see any Reds prospects as a game changer, MVP candidate, franchise player, which is the goal of tanking. The Astros and Cubs got that with their draft picks from tanking. Maybe Senzel turns into that, but he’s looking more like a solid everyday player, and not real difference maker.

You can't be serious here.

Because there wasn't one (a difference-maker) available.

Senzel was as good as they could have done.

Out of all the hitters in his draft class, Senzel has (by far) the best WAR in MLB.

It's not close.

And he's not a finished product.

He's at about the same production as Springer was during his rookie year. He's pretty close to Bryant.

Out of all the Reds' issues, Senzel is definitely not one and complaining because he's not Kris Bryant is asinine.