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Thread: Musing on the state of the minors August 2019

  1. #16
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    Re: Musing on the state of the minors August 2019

    I think a lot of us are anxious about Hines. He seems to be the gem of the draft class but we haven’t seen what he can do yet.

    As mentioned if Greene or Big Tony we’re having a healthy solid year there would be more buzz. On a positive note it does feel like they are trending up in terms of development.


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  3. #17
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Musing on the state of the minors August 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by brian5562 View Post
    I think a lot of us are anxious about Hines. He seems to be the gem of the draft class but we haven’t seen what he can do yet.

    As mentioned if Greene or Big Tony we’re having a healthy solid year there would be more buzz. On a positive note it does feel like they are trending up in terms of development.
    Wasn’t Callihan the better prospect than Hinds?
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  4. #18
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Musing on the state of the minors August 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Reds who began the year in the minor leagues (aside from Mahle):
    Nick Senzel
    Phil Ervin
    Josh VanMeter
    Brian O'Grady
    Aristides Aquino
    Lucas Sims
    Matt Bowman
    Cody Reed
    Sal Romano
    Jimmy Herget

    None of these guys have been below replacement level.

    Instead, they've earned nearly 3.5 bWAR amongst them.

    10 guys brought up who've legitimately helped the team. That's either really, really lucky, good management, good coaching, or good development.
    It's really just Ervin, VanMeter and Senzel at this point. Five of them haven't played much. Reed, Herget and Romano have 13 IP between them. Aquino has 17 PAs. O'Grady has 0. Bowman and Sims have been replacement level arms, which only help you lose. This isn't exactly a groundswell.

    Outside of Senzel, who's going to be around for a long time, this might be like the 1997 crew of Chris Stynes, Jon Nunnally, Mike Kelly and Eduardo Perez. Aquino strikes me as the other guy who could maybe carve out a long-term starting role.
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  5. #19
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Musing on the state of the minors August 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by Alabama View Post
    Feels like we have 30 guys with a chance to contribute and like 2 or 3 eventual starters in Lodolo and Stephenson.
    Nah.

    They've already gutted AAA, pretty much.

    In AA, Stuart Fairchild looks like solid starter material in CF. OPS over 800 and an above average glove in CF will absolutely play, particularly for a club that may need that. India at 3B or 2B is a given. (I'd like to see if he could handle SS defensively.) Packy Naughton's been remarkably productive. Tony Santillan still has promise and may get there as well.

    In Advanced A, Jose Garcia is the best SS prospect in the system. He's got a 115 wRC, a true SS glove, and the upside of youth and power. All his peripherals are moving in the right direction. Hunter Greene should also be mentioned somewhere in here.

    In A ball, there's Lodolo, who's a given. He should see some serious helium moving forward. I also like Brian Rey a lot. Relatively young and a 123 wRC+. Needs to work on his plate approach, but the power is there already, and he does not K much at all. Good BA production as well augers well for the future. Probably will need to move positions though. RF may be his best bet.

    Beyond that, we're all just spitballing.

    That works out to two would-be starting players per league. Which is pretty ideal, honestly. Two guys who profile as good players, a bunch of contributors, plus some some question marks to develop for each farm team? That'll work.

    The issue is that the Reds are missing that true difference-making, elite guy. That may be Greene, who was absolutely turning into an ace before injury. It may be Lodolo, who's looks quite good in the few innings he's pitched. It could be Stephenson, who's had a sneaky good season (and a dominant second half). It might not be anyone.

  6. #20
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    Re: Musing on the state of the minors August 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Wasn’t Callihan the better prospect than Hinds?
    Yes I think he was ranked higher by the "experts".
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  7. #21
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    Re: Musing on the state of the minors August 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    Wasn’t Callihan the better prospect than Hinds?
    I think Callihan may be the more well rounded player but Hinds has crazy power that has a lot of people excited.

  8. #22
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    Re: Musing on the state of the minors August 2019

    Fairchild and Garcia strike me as two guys who could raise the system's profile if they turn out to be for real. The non-Lodolo pitching in this system is grievous. India's nominally the top position player. If the season ended today, I'd lean toward exploring his trade value. Of late, I've been turning my attention to the lower levels of the system - Eric Yang, Wendell Marrero, Fidel Castro, Jose Acosta, Daniel Vellojin, Darlin Guzman, Jose Franco.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

  9. #23
    I wear Elly colored glass WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: Musing on the state of the minors August 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Fairchild and Garcia strike me as two guys who could raise the system's profile if they turn out to be for real. The non-Lodolo pitching in this system is grievous. India's nominally the top position player. If the season ended today, I'd lean toward exploring his trade value. Of late, I've been turning my attention to the lower levels of the system - Eric Yang, Wendell Marrero, Fidel Castro, Jose Acosta, Daniel Vellojin, Darlin Guzman, Jose Franco.
    I wouldn't put too much stock in any player until he's gotten over the AA hump. Fairchild looks like he's doing that. India is actually coming on a bit of late as well. And TySteve, too. Of the lower level players you mention, it'll be years before a AA determination on them is made.
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    Re: Musing on the state of the minors August 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongVerb View Post
    I wouldn't put too much stock in any player until he's gotten over the AA hump. Fairchild looks like he's doing that. India is actually coming on a bit of late as well. And TySteve, too. Of the lower level players you mention, it'll be years before a AA determination on them is made.
    Oh yeah, but in this system you've got to reach to find some kids who profile as maybe exciting.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

  12. #25
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    Re: Musing on the state of the minors August 2019

    This year has taught me that I know very little about projecting prospects. National rankings seem to be determined by projecting ceilings based on tools and the number at which the prospect was drafted. It means something, but falls short of predicting certain success. I don't know much about player makeup, nagging injuries that lower production, likelihood that the player will continue to excel at higher levels, or true defensive versatility.

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    Kingspoint (08-13-2019)

  14. #26
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    Re: Musing on the state of the minors August 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT View Post
    This year has taught me that I know very little about projecting prospects. National rankings seem to be determined by projecting ceilings based on tools and the number at which the prospect was drafted. It means something, but falls short of predicting certain success. I don't know much about player makeup, nagging injuries that lower production, likelihood that the player will continue to excel at higher levels, or true defensive versatility.
    Attitude is everything. That is never measured and why the projections are so distortedly wrong.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

  15. #27
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    Re: Musing on the state of the minors August 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongVerb View Post
    I wouldn't put too much stock in any player until he's gotten over the AA hump. Fairchild looks like he's doing that. India is actually coming on a bit of late as well. And TySteve, too. Of the lower level players you mention, it'll be years before a AA determination on them is made.
    The lower levels are where they are supposed to be learning the fundamentals and experiencing their first stages of adjustments, where maturity has to take over in order for their skillsets to grow. Incredibly skilled players can slide through the lower systems and put up good numbers, but if they slack their way through the system, it all catches up to them at AA, AAA and the Major League level. It's critical that they apply themselves every single day at the lower level and learn to be a professional.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

  16. #28
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    Re: Musing on the state of the minors August 2019

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongVerb View Post
    I wouldn't put too much stock in any player until he's gotten over the AA hump. Fairchild looks like he's doing that. India is actually coming on a bit of late as well. And TySteve, too. Of the lower level players you mention, it'll be years before a AA determination on them is made.
    I think people are forgetting about TySteve.

    If you look at the MLBPipeline top 10 catching prospects, Stephenson's hit better than Rustchman and Langeliers (early and they're there for pedigree, I know), and he's hit about as much as Joey Bart, Keibert Ruiz and Miguel Amaya. And there's no questions about his defense.

    I'm excited to see what he'll do at the AAA level with the juiced ball.

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  18. #29
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    Re: Musing on the state of the minors August 2019

    No mention of Joel Kuhnel?
    “The crows seem to be calling my name,” thought Caw.

  19. #30
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    Re: Musing on the state of the minors August 2019

    From my perspective, I check box scores every other night or so at each level, and the following guys are the only ones I care about at each level:
    AAA- Siri and Alfredo
    AA- India Fairchild Stephenson
    Daytona- Garcia
    Dayton- Sianai
    Billings- nobody
    Greeneville- Callahan and would’ve been Hinds but I think he’s either really hurt or really in trouble.
    For a team that hasn’t been above 500 in 5 years and won’t be this year, that’s pathetic. The only pitcher that excites is Lodolo.
    All of the above guys are holding their own, but if I’m being honest, I don’t see any of them outside of Lodolo being huge impact players.


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