Bauer traded to Reds - part 2

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Bauer may be Arroyo. But the Reds have no business paying 18 mill for a guy like that.

Bauer strikes me as a healthier version of Disco than Arroyo. Lots of K’s, homer prone, not rubber-armed like Arroyo.

Regardless, it’s just a weird acquisition for a team that needs as much salary space as possible to contend next season.

I don't think the Reds are able to use that salary space for acquisitions beyond a Bauer, though. If they sell everything of value, they would likely pursue a guy making peanuts. Nobody meaningful (read: Cole) is signing with the Reds in FA this offseason.

[Falls City Beer]

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I don't think the Reds are able to use that salary space for acquisitions beyond a Bauer, though. If they sell everything of value, they would likely pursue a guy making peanuts. Nobody meaningful (read: Cole) is signing with the Reds in FA this offseason.

It’s not even necessarily about acquiring FA. One other thing: Bauer has never pitched over 190 innings and is more of a 175 guy, which is distinctly not Arroyo-like.

[M2]

The Reds were paying $15M for Arroyo earlier this decade and he was worth every penny. SPs now throw fewer IP, but if he can be in the top 10 in that category next season, money well spent.

[Bill]

Bauer, at least earlier in the season, was leading the league in pitches thrown per game (probably not what you want in a pitcher you just acquired but he has never shown any ill effects up to now). He usually gets better as the games goes on. Last year he was injured by a line drive. Another year he was used some in the pen. I would characterize him as a workhorse that will give your pen a breather.

I don't think they gave up a lot for him, but it is a roll of the dice with what they are going to get, both pitching and personality. I would have preferred to use those assets toward a longer solution than one year.

[Plus Plus]

It’s not even necessarily about acquiring FA. One other thing: Bauer has never pitched over 190 innings and is more of a 175 guy, which is distinctly not Arroyo-like.

Right, it's also about how the Reds aren't going to acquire proven expensive veterans who either have the Reds on their no-trade list or who make $30m annually.

Bauer is a pretty appropriate blend of upside, age, team control, salary and cost to acquire given the Reds' situation as a franchise.

[Patrick Bateman]

Just read the end of part 1.....

Lol he’s not being non tendered.

Last year he was a legit elite ace. It’s in there... and if you watched him last week you would know.

The aim is for the staff to work with him to make it consistent.

Labelling Bauer a number 4 is just silly when you look at the ability in there.

18m on the free agent market buys you 2.5-3 wins. Bauer needs to be a league average guy to do that... which he always does. So there’s no downside here, and all upside.... that’s why the Reds paid a price, but because he’s not elite every year it didn’t cost 2 mega prospects. It was a cost effective way (in terms of talent) to get a potential ace. Other avenues to get a year in year out ace don’t cost just Tranmell and secondary pieces.


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[WrongVerb]

I'm going to make the prediction that by July 1st of next year, Nick Lodolo is pitching meanignful innings for the Reds, enabling them to trade off a pitcher (Bauer or someone else) at the deadline.

[Wonderful Monds]

Just read the end of part 1.....

Lol he’s not being non tendered.

Last year he was a legit elite ace. It’s in there... and if you watched him last week you would know.

The aim is for the staff to work with him to make it consistent.

Labelling Bauer a number 4 is just silly when you look at the ability in there.

18m on the free agent market buys you 2.5-3 wins. Bauer needs to be a league average guy to do that... which he always does. So there’s no downside here, and all upside.... that’s why the Reds paid a price, but because he’s not elite every year it didn’t cost 2 mega prospects. It was a cost effective way (in terms of talent) to get a potential ace. Other avenues to get a year in year out ace don’t cost just Tranmell and secondary pieces.


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That’s kind of my argument against acquiring Bauer though. If your best trade piece straight up only gets Trevor Bauer, then don’t trade Trammell straight up. Package him with India or whoever and get a more slam dunk ace type pitcher than Bauer. As it is, they’ve allocated their best asset towards a “maybe our pitching coach can turn him into an ace again” type guy, which is a very stupid use of assets in my opinion.

[Alabama]

That’s kind of my argument against acquiring Bauer though. If your best trade piece straight up only gets Trevor Bauer, then don’t trade Trammell straight up. Package him with India or whoever and get a more slam dunk ace type pitcher than Bauer. As it is, they’ve allocated their best asset towards a “maybe our pitching coach can turn him into an ace again” type guy, which is a very stupid use of assets in my opinion.

Exactly. Your best asset for 1 year of a guy who has had one/uno/1 season ERA under 4. I had to to look that up but it’s true.

[Tom Servo]

That’s kind of my argument against acquiring Bauer though. If your best trade piece straight up only gets Trevor Bauer, then don’t trade Trammell straight up. Package him with India or whoever and get a more slam dunk ace type pitcher than Bauer. As it is, they’ve allocated their best asset towards a “maybe our pitching coach can turn him into an ace again” type guy, which is a very stupid use of assets in my opinion.

Who do we imagine is this slam dunk ace though? Stroman is an understandable answer, though I don't really consider him an ace and I'd be real worried about his small frame, the dude is 5'7(!) Maybe Trammell/India/something else gets you Matt Boyd, another guy I don't consider an ace. Robbie Ray, similar to Boyd.

Bauer pitched like an ace last year. Only DeGrom, Scherzer, Verlander, Cole, and Corbin were better. Those are guys making money (in Cole's case, about to make) that the Reds will never be able to hand out. I don't think there's anything wrong with Bauer that time won't fix. And even if everything goes wrong with Bauer and it doesn't ever go right and he's only a Jose Quintana type, I still think it was well worth a shot. At least it would have only cost Trammell, who I think mostly has solid regular upside, and not something like Eloy Jiménez/Dylan Cease.

[Wonderful Monds]

Who do we imagine is this slam dunk ace though? Stroman is an understandable answer, though I don't really consider him an ace and I'd be real worried about his small frame, the dude is 5'7(!) Maybe Trammell/India/something else gets you Matt Boyd, another guy I don't consider an ace. Robbie Ray, similar to Boyd.

Bauer pitched like an ace last year. Only DeGrom, Scherzer, Verlander, Cole, and Corbin were better. Those are guys making money (in Cole's case, about to make) that the Reds will never be able to hand out. I don't think there's anything wrong with Bauer that time won't fix. And even if everything goes wrong with Bauer and it doesn't ever go right and he's only a Jose Quintana type, I still think it was well worth a shot. At least it would have only cost Trammell, who I think mostly has solid regular upside, and not something like Eloy Jiménez/Dylan Cease.

I mean that’s kind of the other thing that bothered me about that trade, is that Stroman had just been traded for a return that is decidedly less than Trammell, and Stroman has both better career numbers than Bauer and is having a better season this year than he is too. So if you wanted to get a comparable pitcher to Bauer, there was one available for less than what the Reds traded. And Stroman has pretty good upside himself on top of that.

In terms of ace types though, Greinke was just traded, I’ll throw his name out there. I would’ve been pretty satisfied to give up Trammell+ for him. Syndergaard was a pretty hot trade deadline name, not sure how realistic that would’ve been, but that’s another possibility. Another thing they could’ve done is trade Trammell for a more pressing need than a SP with a year of control as well. Like trade him for a SS or catcher or something like that, and pair that with a Stroman trade or acquire a mid rotation type guy somehow in the offseason.

But to be clear, I don’t think Bauer is a 7 run an outing nontender candidate by any means. I just think that he’s most likely a 4.00 ERA guy that he’s been every single season of his career with one exception, and if he does have upside, I think it most likely bumps him up to a 3.50-3.75 type guy. But not the 2.20ish ace guy he was last year.

[Tom Servo]

I mean that’s kind of the other thing that bothered me about that trade, is that Stroman had just been traded for a return that is decidedly less than Trammell, and Stroman has both better career numbers than Bauer and is having a better season this year than he is too. So if you wanted to get a comparable pitcher to Bauer, there was one available for less than what the Reds traded. And Stroman has pretty good upside himself on top of that.

In terms of ace types though, Greinke was just traded, I’ll throw his name out there. I would’ve been pretty satisfied to give up Trammell+ for him. Syndergaard was a pretty hot trade deadline name, not sure how realistic that would’ve been, but that’s another possibility. Another thing they could’ve done is trade Trammell for a more pressing need than a SP with a year of control as well. Like trade him for a SS or catcher or something like that, and pair that with a Stroman trade or acquire a mid rotation type guy somehow in the offseason.

I'd have done it for Greinke, definitely. I was all about that idea. He had the Reds on his no-trade list though, and didn't have Houston. Syndergaard I don't think was getting moved for that package. The Padres were offering up even more and couldn't land him.

It's a fair point with Stroman. As a person, I like him a lot more than Bauer lol. But I don't know that I buy him as an ace. Bauer certainly looked the part last year.

[Wonderful Monds]

I'd have done it for Greinke, definitely. I was all about that idea. He had the Reds on his no-trade list though, and didn't have Houston. Syndergaard I don't think was getting moved for that package. The Padres were offering up even more and couldn't land him.

It's a fair point with Stroman. As a person, I like him a lot more than Bauer lol. But I don't know that I buy him as an ace. Bauer certainly looked the part last year.

I don’t necessarily think Stroman is an ace, but then again I don’t really think Bauer is either. I think their likely upside is pretty similar in that regard.

All in all, I know Bauer was legitimately very good last year, I’m not going to say he was lucky or anything. But I don’t think his home run rate that made him an ace in 2018 is in anyway repeatable or sustainable for him. His HR/FB% was crazy low last year leading to him having a .46 HR/9, which is insanely low for any pitcher, but especially Bauer. I don’t really see any reason to believe that wasn’t an outlier and is something that he’s capable of repeating.

[mamell]

Let's recap since the trade.. Puig with Cleveland hitting .357, .984 OPS,
Bauer with the Reds, 13 earned runs in 16 innings with a 7.31 ERA. Should have kept Puig and made him a starting pitcher.. OK, not really, but unless Bauer rights his personal ship this may go down as amongst the worst trade of recent memory.

[PuffyPig]

Let's recap since the trade.. Puig with Cleveland hitting .357, .984 OPS,
Bauer with the Reds, 13 earned runs in 16 innings with a 7.31 ERA. Should have kept Puig and made him a starting pitcher.. OK, not really, but unless Bauer rights his personal ship this may go down as amongst the worst trade of recent memory.

Small sample size alert.

We traded 2 months of Puig. He was replaced by AA who has been much hotter and has 6 more years of control.

So, Puig is not the reason you lament that trade.

Bauer had a bad game. he's still the exact same pitcher he was before yesterdays game.