Hurricane Dorian

[JaxRed]

Surprised there's been no thread on this one yet. Looks like a bad one. Latest track has it coming onshore around Vero Beach as a Cat 4 and then turning North just inland. Showing as a Cat 2 as it crosses straight over Jacksonville.

Would probably mean Orlando is looking at Cat 3, but it would probably be west of the storm which is the weaker side.

[SunDeck]

Putting up the window dressing yet? Good luck.

[JaxRed]

American Model (GFS) is one that shoots it over Orlando and Jax. Euro model shows it off coast. This time I'm rooting for the Europeans...

[JaxRed]

Big decision for me would be whether to head north. (Probably Virginia). I have a PruisV and a full tank of gas. That gets me over 450 miles in normal traffic. Jax's geography normally protects it from direct hits. We've only really had one big hit. 50 years ago.

But that storms name? Dora.

[WrongVerb]

Based on what's happened previously with hurricanes approaching Florida from the east, I think the intensity won't be quite as high as forecast. Maybe a strong cat 3 as it makes landfall. The real problem is that forward motion is forecast to slow way down. That means lots of localized wind damage, and lots and lots of coastal, river, and flash flooding wherever it makes landfall.

- - - Updated - - -

American Model (GFS is one that shoots it over Orlando and Jax). Euro model shows it off coast. This time I'm rooting for the Europeans...

Always bet on the Euro model. It's better than anything the NWS has.

[marcshoe]

Haven't checked to see whether my father is evacuating from Titusville yet. My aunt on the other side was planning to drive down to see her daughter outside Orlando this weekend. I'm guessing she cancelled, but who knows? Everybody else will be going the other direction, so traffic on I-95 south might be clear.

[Gainesville Red]

I'm extremely not enthused about this.

We've got some pretty huge, ancient oak trees in the yard, including one that hands over kind of a lot of the house. Love the trees, but we were supposed to do something about them this year so that we could rest a little easier every August through October. Spent those dollars on the dog's cancer treatments - wife made the decision and there was no sense even trying to talk her out of it. I do really like our dog. She's a good one. Gambled. Let's see how it plays out.

[RFS62]

My prediction....

Mar-a-Lago is ground zero for Hurricane Damian, uh, Dorian.

Wind speed and coastal surge surpass Camille and Katrina to become the most powerful destructive force in US history.

[North]

I'm extremely not enthused about this.

We've got some pretty huge, ancient oak trees in the yard, including one that hands over kind of a lot of the house. Love the trees, but we were supposed to do something about them this year so that we could rest a little easier every August through October. Spent those dollars on the dog's cancer treatments - wife made the decision and there was no sense even trying to talk her out of it. I do really like our dog. She's a good one. Gambled. Let's see how it plays out.

Hoping for the best, from Cincinnati.

FWIW, Duke Energy crews from our area embarked yesterday to staging areas...somewhere in SC, I think.

[KronoRed]

Don't do this

[JaxRed]

White after Labor Day?

[North]

Don't do this

[North]

White after Labor Day?

[Gainesville Red]

Don't do this

I didn't even see you sneak up and take the picture.

We've interacted enough online over the years that you could have just said hi in person.

[JaxRed]

Well some very encouraging movement over last 24 hours. Latest tracks now show it going off shore of Florida and not making landfall till Savannah. I don't wish ill of the folks in Savannah and SC but if the choice is a 4 in Florida or a 2 in GA/SC , I'll choose the 2 in GA/SC.