2020 Rotation

[WrongVerb]

With the Reds out of it for 2019, it's time to look to 2020. How do we see the rotation shaping up?

The only two spots that are solid (barring injury, of course) are Castillo and Gray. Bauer is enigmatic, and could theoretically be traded over the winter. But he's likely to be in there as well. Disco and Mahle are penciled in as #4-5 at the moment, but are not irreplaceable. Wood's future is uncertain. Sims and Gausman are the best of the rest.

It seems to me the Reds need one more very solid pitcher. I'd prefer a left hander.

Madison Bumgarner makes a lot of sense. However, he's from Texas and the Rangers are moving into a new park next season. A marquee signing of MadBum makes a lot of sense for them and I suspect they get it done.

Robby Ray and James Paxton could be trade targets. The Reds tried to pick up Paxton last offseason, and he instead was traded to the Yankees. He's suffering from a mild case of the Sonny Grays with them, and could probably be pried away. Ray would be a very solid addition. Matt Boyd is in this group as well.

Less likely trade targets include Caleb Smith, Sean Newcomb, Marco Gonzalez, Stephen Matz, and even someone like David Price.

Thoughts?

[CarolinaRedleg]

Bumgarner is from North Carolina. Whether or not that makes a difference, who knows.

[WildcatFan]

Looking at the free agent list, I'd be curious to know what Kyle Gibson will get. Peripherals are solid, even though he's got a 4.58 ERA. Ground ball pitcher, all of a sudden striking out more batters. He feels like a really good #4.

I'm leery of trades this offseason—it seems to me the farm is thinning a bit at the upper levels. Obviously right price and all that.

My guess, though, is that most free agent money goes to the bullpen and maybe a catcher.

[Alpha Zero]

Keuchel will be back on the market. It will be interesting to see what kind of contract he gets this time around.

[Kc61]

My rotation on OD 2020 would be Castillo, Gray, Bauer, Disco and Mahle. I’d consider replacing Mahle only if somebody cheap falls into Reds’ lap or emerges in ST. Mahle didn’t pitch badly, is only 24, got little run or pen support, would plan to let him ride to begin 2020.

I’d consider a move at next season’s July deadline for another major starter if needed.

The Reds have money to spend, but it isn’t endless. And limited trade assets. I would devote the cash and trade assets to the offense and the bullpen this off-season.

The Reds’ starting rotation has the fourth best FIP in the NL. Reds starters have the sixth best ERA in the NL, very close to the third-fifth best. Only Dodgers and Nats are materially ahead.

On the other hand Reds are 12th in NL offense (using wRC+) and have obvious bullpen needs (4.53 ERA). The Reds are 9 under .500 and the bullpen W-L record is 9 under .500.

Reds have already made a big move for the 2020 rotation with Bauer. Disco will still be reasonable in arbitration for next year, Mahle pre-arb, so BOR would be cost efficient.

[muethibp]

I'd bet very big money that it's Castillo, Gray, Bauer, Disco and Mahle.

[Crumbley]

I'd bet very big money that it's Castillo, Gray, Bauer, Disco and Mahle.

75 wins max

[PuffyPig]

With the Reds out of it for 2019, it's time to look to 2020. How do we see the rotation shaping up?

The only two spots that are solid (barring injury, of course) are Castillo and Gray. Bauer is enigmatic, and could theoretically be traded over the winter. But he's likely to be in there as well. Disco and Mahle are penciled in as #4-5 at the moment, but are not irreplaceable. Wood's future is uncertain. Sims and Gausman are the best of the rest.

It seems to me the Reds need one more very solid pitcher. I'd prefer a left hander.

Madison Bumgarner makes a lot of sense. However, he's from Texas and the Rangers are moving into a new park next season. A marquee signing of MadBum makes a lot of sense for them and I suspect they get it done.

Robby Ray and James Paxton could be trade targets. The Reds tried to pick up Paxton last offseason, and he instead was traded to the Yankees. He's suffering from a mild case of the Sonny Grays with them, and could probably be pried away. Ray would be a very solid addition. Matt Boyd is in this group as well.

Less likely trade targets include Caleb Smith, Sean Newcomb, Marco Gonzalez, Stephen Matz, and even someone like David Price.

Thoughts?

I expect that Bauer and Disco are sure bets to be in the rotation next year.

[Rojo Rijo]

Bumgarner is from North Carolina. Whether or not that makes a difference, who knows.

He lives on his farm there (Hickory NC) in the offseason and I've always wondered if he would care to be closer to home. Cincinnati is one of the three closest MLB teams to that area (Atlanta the closest, Cincinnati and Washington very similar).

[Tracy Jones]

75 wins max

That rotation wins more than 75 games, provided that the offense and bullpen are significantly improved. In fact if Bauer is right, I’d go as far to say that it’s one of the best rotations in the NL.

[schroomytunes]

I think the rotation is Castillo, Bauer, Gray, Disco and Mahle. I think they try to re-sign Gausman for the 6th man/ swing role. But I would expect us to look at upgrading the Bullpen and LF/C this offseason.

[marcshoe]

I think Disco's improving enough that he'll be an asset. Even with the Wood debacle, the rotation's better than it's been in a while. I agree with KC, spend assets elsewhere unless a deal pops up.

otoh, I read that Strasburg might opt out. . . .

[Kc61]

I think the rotation is Castillo, Bauer, Gray, Disco and Mahle. I think they try to re-sign Gausman for the 6th man/ swing role. But I would expect us to look at upgrading the Bullpen and LF/C this offseason.

Maybe middle infield also.

[RedsBrick]

I agree with others that the rotation will look nice and one of the upper echelon in the NL.

But with Bell pulling guys between the 5th/6th innings, the bullpen will have to be beefed up for this team to climb the ladder.

[Kinsm]

Mahle is above Disco on the depth chart for me (won't be for most people). Disco is entering his final year of team control and is homer prone, I'd actually look to trade him this winter and then go after another Starting Pitcher to add to the mix.

If the Reds are going to spend big this winter (Bob is nearing the end of his life after all), they should just throw buku bucks at Gerrit Cole.