Better or worse? To this point the answer's worse. They need to be very careful in trading prospects. Rarely trade top 100 guys or guys who will become top 100 and that gets into talent evaluation. They severely underestimated the guys they traded. Furthermore trade from an area of strength. LHP (Moss) and SS (Downs) was not a strength in the organization. Shed Long was a position of strength so I had no problem with that
Only with free agency do players have a choice, not if you make opportunistic trades taking on salary other teams want to shed.
As for free agents, at this stage, with a non-contending team, Reds may need to offer an extra year or some other inducement. Many FAs are fighting for an extra contract year and such an offer can be very persuasive.
Eventually, if Reds are keep improving, they might be able to attract some FAs without such an inducement. Now probably they will need to offer it.
Last edited by Kc61; 09-15-2019 at 10:02 AM.
If the Reds don't start developing talent then they have no chance. Even the Yankees need to develop talent and they have, hence they're in 1st place. It's even more important for the Reds to develop talent. Since they seem to struggle in this area, it behooves them to improve their chances by acquiring more minor league talent rather than less
HokieRed (09-15-2019)
Untrue. Homer was signed for over $100 million for what, five years or more. FA these days seldom involves that. The contracts are mostly shorter.
Yasmani Grandal got one year from Milwaukee and took it. It’s only one example. The market - in terms of contract years - has changed except for the Machados and Harpers.
The Reds simply cannot cut off a whole segment of the market. They will never compete with the top teams if they are endlessly rebuilding with youth waiting for the stars to align. They need a more varied approach to player acquisition.
Last edited by Kc61; 09-15-2019 at 10:25 AM.
M2 (09-15-2019),Old school 1983 (09-15-2019)
"In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)
M2 (09-15-2019),Old school 1983 (09-15-2019),Revering4Blue (09-15-2019),Wonderful Monds (09-15-2019)
The Reds didn’t trade their best prospects for short term rentals. They traded their second level prospects for short term rentals.
And the math isn’t looking as bad as you say.
They traded Tanner Rainey for Tsnner Roark. Roark provided 2 fWAR in half a season, then was traded for a prospect better than Rainey.
They traded Shed Long and a draft pick for 4 seasons of Sonny Gray. Gray has put up 4 fWAR so far this season. They have him for three more seasons.
They traded Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray for Puig and Wood (basically). Puig and Trammel were turned into one plus year of Bauer.
So the Reds have already received 6 fWAR of production from the players traded for, and have one full year of Bauer and three full seasons of a Gray left.
I am not sure Trammell, j, Gray, Downs, Rainey and Long will put up 5 fWAR in their MLB careers. Standard odds for prospects say they won’t. And a I think it’s conservative to say that Gray and Bauee will end up providing more fWAR in the future.
I understand your frustration that the team isn’t as improved as you’d like it to be. But those trades of prospects. For short term rentals has worked out well so far. Those trades are not the reason why the Reds are under .500 right now. Those trades are likely the main reason why the Reds have improved this season from last.
Hoping to change my username to 75769024
bucksfan2 (09-16-2019)
When did they stop developing talent? If trading away a Trammell (whose stock is falling), along with some level level prospects (Day, Gray), as well as a tier 4 prospect (Moss), is emptying this farm system .... then, IMO, this farm system was in deep trouble to begin with. Fortunately, I don't think it is.
The issue, as it is with a lot of teams, is developing enough prospects for positions of need (whether it be a pitcher, SS, 2B, etc). You give it your best shot, put forth your best effort, but it's still a crap-shoot. That's when you look for "partners" who may supply your shortage via their "abundance" (and visa-versa).
JMO ... but the only way one can say trading the above prospects was bad is if they actually make it. Then one can come back and say I told you so. Not holding my breath there (LOL).
"In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)
Stop developing talent? They need to start doing it better. Prior to this year, when was the last significant contributor that the Reds "developed"? You can't go with such a dry spell. To their credit this has been a productive yr for rookies and that's largely why their record improved this year and not their deals for one yr rentals
You said (LOL) ...
How far can we go back? Because in the last 10+ years they have either developed talent or acquired young talent/top prospects that they developed further and contributed to this team... Dunn, Votto, Cueto, Bruce, Harang, Phillips, Cozart, etc.Prior to this year, when was the last significant contributor that the Reds "developed"?
The reason for the "dry spell" was because of the rebuild and in the midst of the developmental stage with prospects like Castillo, Winker, Suarez, Senzel, Mahle, and others. In '19 they started showing some fruit on the tree.You can't go with such a dry spell.
"In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)
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